NYSE

[Garcilаso]

Дискусията много силно се измества от пъроначалния въпрос за ефекта от свиване на баланса на Феда върху множителите. За да се даде отговор на подобен въпрос трябва да се гледат релевантине фактори.

Прав си, отплеснах се, но нещата за мен са свързани в една доста комплексна система.

А що се отнася до ликвидността - вероятно има нюанси, които предотвратяват директната връзка между действията на Фед и цените на активите, но за мен тенденцията е кристално ясна. При толкова много изписани пари в икономиката последното десетилетие, няма как настоящите нива на множителите да се дължат само и единствено на ниските дисконтиращи стойности на бъдещите потоци. И още по-малко на подобряващата се икономика.

[Garcilаso]

някой тук да се интерсувал от биотех? и по=спецялно органово?

Вероятно имаш предвид производство на органи.

Да, една от моите компании прави проучвания в този сегмент. За съжаление, напредъкът е доста бавен и първите реални резултати се очакват след поне 10 години. Причина за това е, че проучванията са сложни и изискват много финансови ресурси без абсолютно никаква гаранция за възвръщаемост.

[Black and white cat-foot]

да не вземе да урочаса нещата

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...at-ugly-bubble

[pirdop]

някой тук да се интерсувал от биотех? и по=спецялно органово?

[Black and white cat-foot]

Не, не е заради сделката. Харесва ми компанията по принцип. Имам от тях и от преди. Лошите резултати ги правят по-привлекателни за мене. Аз не търся някакъв моментум в следващите месеци. Въпреки че смятам, че заелите тактически позиции в последните месеци и седмици, като разпродадат след разочарованието и цената може да тръгне нагоре към 57-58 до два-три месеца.

Но моят времеви хоризонт е доста по-дълъг.

какво точно ти харесва в компанията?

[Protokol]

Не, не е заради сделката. Харесва ми компанията по принцип. Имам от тях и от преди. Лошите резултати ги правят по-привлекателни за мене. Аз не търся някакъв моментум в следващите месеци. Въпреки че смятам, че заелите тактически позиции в последните месеци и седмици, като разпродадат след разочарованието и цената може да тръгне нагоре към 57-58 до два-три месеца.

Но моят времеви хоризонт е доста по-дълъг.

Е това не мога да разбера – когато някой оправдава неподходящата цена на която купува с дълъг хоризонт …
И на мен ми се случва купувайки при падащи цени (щото пазарувам само при низходящо движение) … но ги местя в графата „прееб..х се“ и стоят с такъв етикет докато не светнат в зелено …
И що купуваш на сегашните цени когато ги очакваш на по-ниски ?
Всъщност аз разбирам израза „опасно е да се влюбваш в дадена акция“ така :

• когато я притежаваш и не искаш да се разделиш с нея защото била Priceless … и ставаш като Aм-гъл
• когато искаш да я имаш на всяка цена – сега и веднага … като жената и децата

Или казано с по-прости думи и от по-умни хора

In the end, only three things matter in investing for the long term:
• The price you pay.
• When you sell.
• The risk you take.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/if-...oor-2017-07-26

[Misho ILIEV]

заради сделката в китай ли ти харесват? защото шестмесечните резултати бяха слаби

Не, не е заради сделката. Харесва ми компанията по принцип. Имам от тях и от преди. Лошите резултати ги правят по-привлекателни за мене. Аз не търся някакъв моментум в следващите месеци. Въпреки че смятам, че заелите тактически позиции в последните месеци и седмици, като разпродадат след разочарованието и цената може да тръгне нагоре към 57-58 до два-три месеца.

Но моят времеви хоризонт е доста по-дълъг.

[Black and white cat-foot]

Добавих още мъничко Старбъкс на $54.58.

заради сделката в китай ли ти харесват? защото шестмесечните резултати бяха слаби

[Misho ILIEV]

Добавих още мъничко Старбъкс на $54.58.

[Black and white cat-foot]

и ако това не е сел сигнал

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/...rous-obamacare

[pirdop]

Richard Christopher Whalen is an investment banker and author who lives in New York City. He is Chairman of Whalen Global Advisors LLC and focuses on the financial services, mortgage finance and technology sectors. Christopher is a member of FINRA and is associated with Bradley Woods & Co in New York.

From 2014 through 2017, Christopher was Senior Managing Director and Head of Research at Kroll Bond Rating Agency, where he was responsible for ratings by the firm’s Financial Institutions and Corporate Ratings Groups. He was a co-founder and principal of Institutional Risk Analytics from 2003 through 2013.

Over the past three decades, Chris worked as a writer and financial professional in Washington, New York and London. He has held positions in organizations such as the House Republican Conference Committee, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Bear, Stearns & Co., Prudential Securities, and Carrington Mortgage Holdings.

Christopher holds a B.A. in History from Villanova University. He is the author of three books, including his most recent work “Ford Men: From Inspiration to Enterprise” (2017), a study of Ford Motor Co and the Ford family published by Laissez Faire Books. He is the author of "Inflated: How Money and Debt Built the American Dream" (2010) published by John Wiley & Sons; and co-author of “Financial Stability: Fraud, Confidence & the Wealth of Nations,” also published by John Wiley & Sons.

Christopher is a member of the Economic Advisory Committee of FINRA. He is on the board of directors of the Global Interdependence Center (GIC) in Philadelphia. Christopher previously served as a fellow of Networks Financial Institute at Indiana State University (2008-2014) and as a member of the Finance Department Advisory Council at the Villanova School of Business (2013-2016).

Christopher edits The Institutional Risk Analyst newsletter and contributes to other publications such as Zero Hedge, American Banker, Housing Wire and The National Interest. He has testified before Congress, the Securities and Exchange Commission and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation on a range of financial, economic and political issues. He appears regularly in such media outlets as CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News and Business News Network. Christopher is active in social media under the Twitter handle “rcwhalen”.

https://www.macrovoices.com/289-chri...ready-to-crash

Erik: Let’s move on to the US equity market. We’ve had a lot of people on the program arguing that the market is way overvalued, this thing is overdone, it just has to crash here, the top has to be in. Yet it continues to march higher. And we’ve also heard the other opposite argument, which is that there’s so much new liquidity in the system in terms of the feds supporting the market, even if we’re supposedly talking about shrinking the balance sheet now it’s shrinking very slowly. Which way do you see this, or where do you think it’s going? What’s your outlook for short, medium, long-term in the equity markets?



Chris: Equity markets are clearly overvalued. They’re very much like what you see in the residential real estate market in the United States and also in commercial real estate. The Fed manipulated the credit markets, they took four trillion dollars’ worth of securities out of the market, and they’ve essentially forced all of us to invest in something else. And so you’ve had a situation where low interest rates have driven money into stocks.



You’ve also had companies buying back their stock because debt is so cheap. Look at IBM. They’ve a negative book value for the company now, because they’ve levered up so much and bought back so much stock. And so you have a scarcity of supply. And so I would not disagree at all with your other guests that the stocks are overvalued.



The Street keeps coming up with rationales why that’s not so, but I think it’s clear that it is. But on the other hand, do I expect the market to crash? No. Because, remember, the constraint here is supply. And there’s so much money looking to invest that it’s going into all of the possible asset classes and in some cases into surreal asset classes like bitcoin and all of these digital currencies.



It’s very much a function of the central banks. And I think that’s a problem, because when we “normalize” interest rates we’re going to see a lot of credit losses on the books of banks and bond investors because crappy companies are able to go out and borrow money like they were good companies. Thanks to Janet Yellen. There is a cost to the social engineering that the Federal Reserve Board engages in, and, you know, I think it’s going to—over time the history is not going to be kind to Yellen and her colleagues. Because they have created the next problem. We just haven’t gotten there yet. Rising interest rates could quickly expose the companies’ “short-term thinking” surrounding how we paid for buybacks.”

Много точно казано, въпросе е кога ще дръпнат шалтера,

ясно е че в момента в който QE спре, доста маймуни ще падат от клоновете. Гледам че даже вече и в БГ се пробутват дялове от взаимни фондове, разни акции и т.н. всякакви инструменти от банките в търсене на някаква доходност! Само дето никой не обяснява на хората за какви рискове говорим. Балона само ще се надуе още повече щом куцо, кьораво и сакато се втурнат на борсата. В моменти надуха балоня с НИ, като най-достъпна 'инвестиция', стадото скочи. Всичко живо купува за да отдава под наем, е накрая кой ще взима под наем, питам аз? Я отгоре на всичко не малка част от тези имоти са на левъридж - ипотеки+ плаващи лихви. И това не е само в БГ ами в цяла Европа, САЩ.
големия въпрос е дали централните банки изобщо ще спрат с разхлабената политика. Вижте Япония те там тая игра я играха и там не свърши никак добре.

[Black and white cat-foot]

Richard Christopher Whalen is an investment banker and author who lives in New York City. He is Chairman of Whalen Global Advisors LLC and focuses on the financial services, mortgage finance and technology sectors. Christopher is a member of FINRA and is associated with Bradley Woods & Co in New York.

From 2014 through 2017, Christopher was Senior Managing Director and Head of Research at Kroll Bond Rating Agency, where he was responsible for ratings by the firm’s Financial Institutions and Corporate Ratings Groups. He was a co-founder and principal of Institutional Risk Analytics from 2003 through 2013.

Over the past three decades, Chris worked as a writer and financial professional in Washington, New York and London. He has held positions in organizations such as the House Republican Conference Committee, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Bear, Stearns & Co., Prudential Securities, and Carrington Mortgage Holdings.

Christopher holds a B.A. in History from Villanova University. He is the author of three books, including his most recent work “Ford Men: From Inspiration to Enterprise” (2017), a study of Ford Motor Co and the Ford family published by Laissez Faire Books. He is the author of "Inflated: How Money and Debt Built the American Dream" (2010) published by John Wiley & Sons; and co-author of “Financial Stability: Fraud, Confidence & the Wealth of Nations,” also published by John Wiley & Sons.

Christopher is a member of the Economic Advisory Committee of FINRA. He is on the board of directors of the Global Interdependence Center (GIC) in Philadelphia. Christopher previously served as a fellow of Networks Financial Institute at Indiana State University (2008-2014) and as a member of the Finance Department Advisory Council at the Villanova School of Business (2013-2016).

Christopher edits The Institutional Risk Analyst newsletter and contributes to other publications such as Zero Hedge, American Banker, Housing Wire and The National Interest. He has testified before Congress, the Securities and Exchange Commission and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation on a range of financial, economic and political issues. He appears regularly in such media outlets as CNBC, Bloomberg, Fox News and Business News Network. Christopher is active in social media under the Twitter handle “rcwhalen”.

https://www.macrovoices.com/289-chri...ready-to-crash

Erik: Let’s move on to the US equity market. We’ve had a lot of people on the program arguing that the market is way overvalued, this thing is overdone, it just has to crash here, the top has to be in. Yet it continues to march higher. And we’ve also heard the other opposite argument, which is that there’s so much new liquidity in the system in terms of the feds supporting the market, even if we’re supposedly talking about shrinking the balance sheet now it’s shrinking very slowly. Which way do you see this, or where do you think it’s going? What’s your outlook for short, medium, long-term in the equity markets?



Chris: Equity markets are clearly overvalued. They’re very much like what you see in the residential real estate market in the United States and also in commercial real estate. The Fed manipulated the credit markets, they took four trillion dollars’ worth of securities out of the market, and they’ve essentially forced all of us to invest in something else. And so you’ve had a situation where low interest rates have driven money into stocks.



You’ve also had companies buying back their stock because debt is so cheap. Look at IBM. They’ve a negative book value for the company now, because they’ve levered up so much and bought back so much stock. And so you have a scarcity of supply. And so I would not disagree at all with your other guests that the stocks are overvalued.



The Street keeps coming up with rationales why that’s not so, but I think it’s clear that it is. But on the other hand, do I expect the market to crash? No. Because, remember, the constraint here is supply. And there’s so much money looking to invest that it’s going into all of the possible asset classes and in some cases into surreal asset classes like bitcoin and all of these digital currencies.



It’s very much a function of the central banks. And I think that’s a problem, because when we “normalize” interest rates we’re going to see a lot of credit losses on the books of banks and bond investors because crappy companies are able to go out and borrow money like they were good companies. Thanks to Janet Yellen. There is a cost to the social engineering that the Federal Reserve Board engages in, and, you know, I think it’s going to—over time the history is not going to be kind to Yellen and her colleagues. Because they have created the next problem. We just haven’t gotten there yet. Rising interest rates could quickly expose the companies’ “short-term thinking” surrounding how we paid for buybacks.”

[Misho ILIEV]

нищо не са тези 1.5 милиарда за такива пазари

Това е само пример. Пасивните са взели, мисля, 16-17% от американския пазар на акции и постоянно растат. Така че ако някой гледа на цената на акциите от гледна точка на "прилив" на пари, това не е за пренебрегване.

[Black and white cat-foot]

Сред всички други фактори, които бутат индексите нагоре е и това, че инвеститорите се прехвърлят от активен в пасивен мениджмънт. Ефектът идва от там, че активните фондове държат средно по 3% кеш, а пасивните не държат почти никакъв кеш. Така, като се прехвърлят 50 млрд. от активен в пасивен, едни допълнителни 1.5 млрд. които до тогава са били в кеш се "вливат" в акции.



https://www.ft.com/content/090e22ec-...e-68d53499ed71

нищо не са тези 1.5 милиарда за такива пазари

[Misho ILIEV]

Сред всички други фактори, които бутат индексите нагоре е и това, че инвеститорите се прехвърлят от активен в пасивен мениджмънт. Ефектът идва от там, че активните фондове държат средно по 3% кеш, а пасивните не държат почти никакъв кеш. Така, като се прехвърлят 50 млрд. от активен в пасивен, едни допълнителни 1.5 млрд. които до тогава са били в кеш се "вливат" в акции.

Holders of passive funds are, then, generally terrible market timers, buying at the top and selling at the bottom. They could also, by buying now, be contributing to the top. The average active equity fund keeps about 3 per cent in cash, according to the Investment Company Institute, while passive funds have negligible cash. Thus a switch of $50bn from active equity funds to passive, intended merely to reduce costs rather than to time the market, leads to an extra $1.5bn being put to work buying stocks. This is helping push the market up and could yet work in reverse if investors start to sell on the way down.

https://www.ft.com/content/090e22ec-...e-68d53499ed71