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Hungary’s parliament is set to vote on a law requiring banks to refund to borrowers unfair
exchange-rate margins on consumer loans and the proceeds of unilateral contract changes.
The law will apply to FX- and HUF-denominated consumer loans, so may affect credit worth
nearly EUR 22bn. The estimated costs to Hungary’s banks could be as much as EUR 3bn.
By year end, the government wants to convert all existing FX-denominated loans into HUF,
most likely at a preferential exchange rate, further increasing the costs to banks.
The loan refund plan, while hitting the banks, should underpin Hungary’s consumption
outlook in the near term, especially if the refunds to borrowers are in cash.
The outlook for Hungarian credit activity and investment will worsen, however, suggesting
softer growth and a weaker exchange rate in the medium term.
Hungary’s parliament is set to vote on a law requiring banks to refund to borrowers unfair
exchange-rate margins on consumer loans and the proceeds of unilateral contract changes.
The law will apply to FX- and HUF-denominated consumer loans, so may affect credit worth
nearly EUR 22bn. The estimated costs to Hungary’s banks could be as much as EUR 3bn.
By year end, the government wants to convert all existing FX-denominated loans into HUF,
most likely at a preferential exchange rate, further increasing the costs to banks.
The loan refund plan, while hitting the banks, should underpin Hungary’s consumption
outlook in the near term, especially if the refunds to borrowers are in cash.
The outlook for Hungarian credit activity and investment will worsen, however, suggesting
softer growth and a weaker exchange rate in the medium term.
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