Академия за инвестиции на looser

[Mr.Profit]

[Mr.Profit]

От блога на Steve Burns

40 steps in the trader’s journey from new trader to rich trader.

They are as follows:

1. We accumulate information, we learn- buying books, asking questions, maybe going to seminars and researching what really works in trading.
2. We begin to trade with our ‘new’ found knowledge.
3. We make profits only to give it back very quickly and then realize we may need more knowledge or information.
4. We accumulate more information.
5. We switch the stocks we are currently following and trading.
6. We go back into the market and trade with our improved system. this time it will work.
7. We lose even more money and begin to lose confidence that we can even be traders. The reality of losing money sets in.
8. We start to listen to other traders and what works for them.
9. We go back into the market and continue to lose more money.
10. We completely switch our style and method.
11. We search for more information.
12. We go back into the market and start to see a little progress.
13. We get ‘over-confident’ in a single trade and put on a big position believing it is a sure thing and the market quickly takes our money.
14. We start to understand that trading successfully is going to take more time and more knowledge than we ever anticipated. MOST PEOPLE WILL GIVE UP AT THIS POINT, AS THEY REALIZE REAL WORK IS INVOLVED AND THAT THIS IS NOT EASY MONEY.
15. We get serious and start concentrating on learning a ‘real’ methodology.
16. We trade our methodology with some success, but realize that something is missing.
17. We begin to understand the need for having rules to apply our methodology.
18. We take a sabbatical from trading to develop and research our trading rules.
19. We start trading again, this time with rules and find some success, but over all we still hesitate when we execute.
20. We add, subtract and modify rules as we see a need to be more proficient with our rules.
21. We feel we are very close to crossing that threshold of successful trading.
22. We start to take responsibility for our trading results as we understand that our success is based on our ability to execute our methodology.
23. We continue to trade and become more proficient with our methodology and our rules.
24. As we trade we still have a tendency to violate our rules and our results are still erratic.
25. We know we are close.
26. We go back and research our rules.
27. We build the confidence in our rules and go back into the market and trade.
28. Our trading results are getting better, but we are still hesitating in executing our rules.
29. We now see the importance of following our rules as we see the results of our trades when we don’t follow the rules.
30. We begin to see that our lack of success is within us (a lack of discipline in following the rules because of some kind of fear) and we begin to work on knowing ourselves better.
31. We continue to trade and the market teaches us more and more about ourselves.
32. We master our methodology and our trading rules.
33. We begin to consistently make money.
34. We get a little over-confident and the market humbles us.
35. We continue to learn our lessons.
36. We learn smaller positions lower the volume of our emotions so we trade smaller and this surprisingly makes us better with our discipline.
37. We learn that risk management is one of the biggest keys to winning as a trader, we start to understand that big losses will make us unprofitable so we finally trade a smaller and consistent position size.
38. We stop thinking and allow our rules to trade for us (trading becomes boring, but successful) and our trading account continues to grow as we increase our position size only as our account grows.
39. We are making more money than we ever dreamed possible.
40. We go on with our lives and accomplish many of the goals we had always dreamed of. Money is our new tool to do what we have always wanted.

[Mr.Profit]

[Mr.Profit]

UNDERSTANDING GEORGE SOROS’ THEORY OF REFLEXIVITY IN MARKETS

My conceptual framework enabled me both to anticipate the crisis and to deal with it when it finally struck. It has also enabled me to explain and predict events better than most others. This has changed my own evaluation and that of many others. My philosophy is no longer a personal matter; it deserves to be taken seriously as a possible contribution to our understanding of reality. ~ George Soros (via FT)

The conceptual framework that Soros is referring to is Reflexivity. Understanding what reflexivity is, and how it affects markets (and much more) is one of the most important fundamental truths a trader can grasp.

The idea is centered around there being two realities; objective realities and subjective realities.

Objective realities are true regardless of what participants think about them. For example, if I remark that it’s snowing outside and it is in fact snowing outside, then that is an objective truth. It would be snowing outside whether I said or thought otherwise — I could say it’s sunny but that would not make it sunny, it would still be snowing.

Subjective realities on the other hand are affected by what participants think about them. Markets fall into this category. Since perfect information does not exist (ie, we can’t predict the future and it’s impossible to know all the variables moving markets at any given time) we make our best judgements as to what assets (stocks, futures, options etc) should be valued at. Our collective thinking is what moves markets and produces winners and losers. This means that what we think about reality affects reality itself. And that reality in turn affects our thinking once again.1

Have I lost you? Stay with me, it’s not as complicated as it sounds.

Take a highflying tech stock like Amazon (AMZN) for example. The company has made little in the way of income (in relation to its market cap) for the majority of its existence (over 15 years) but the stock has continued to soar. This is happening because people formed a number of positive beliefs about the stock. These beliefs could be that the company will make tons of money someday because it’s innovative, eating market share, or has a secret profit switch it can flip whenever it wants. Or maybe people continue to buy the stock because it’s gone up for a long time and so they assume it will continue to go up.

In truth it’s probably many of these reasons that encourage investors to continue piling into a profitless company. But the reasons aren’t important. What’s important is that these positive beliefs have directly affected Amazon’s subjective reality.

Here are just a few examples of how Amazon’s fundamentals have been positively affected by investors’ beliefs:

• The high stock price has allowed the company to receive cheaper financing costs
• And attract exceptional talent which in turn has lead to increased growth
• And hide costs by including stock options as a large portion of employee compensation
• And be unconcerned with profits, enabling them to drastically undercut competition and steal market share

It’s not difficult to imagine another reality in which investors collectively had a more negative or neutral belief about the company. Amazon may look very different today. Forced to focus on profits — like many businesses — Amazon perhaps would not have had the explosive growth its experienced. Maybe it never would have expanded outside of selling books. Maybe a competitor would have run it out of business.

The point is that since markets are reflexive, our beliefs about them directly affect the underlying fundamentals and vice-versa. And sometimes the reflexive mechanism forms a powerful feedback loop which causes prices and expectations to drastically diverge from reality.

Here is Soros on the subject:

Financial markets, far from accurately reflecting all the available knowledge, always provide a distorted view of reality. This is the principle of fallibility. The degree of2 distortion may vary from time to time. Sometimes it’s quite insignificant, at other times it is quite pronounced.

Every bubble has two components: an underlying trend that prevails in reality and a misconception relating to that trend. When a positive feedback develops between the trend and the misconception, a boom-bust process is set in motion. The process is liable to be tested by negative feedback along the way, and if it is strong enough to survive these tests, both the trend and the misconception will be reinforced.

What Soros is saying is that markets are in a constant state of divergence from reality — meaning, prices are always wrong. Sometimes this divergence is miniscule and hardly perceptible. Other times this divergence is large, due to feedback loop drivers. These are the boom and bust processes. And it is these large divergences that we as traders want to seek out, because that’s where the money is.

You need to learn how to identify the themes that are ripe for a strong feedback loop to form; where positive perceptions directly boost fundamentals. These are the scenarios where a stock or sector will go parabolic. And Soros again:

Usually some error in the act of valuation is involved. The most common error is a failure to recognize that a so-called fundamental value is not really independent of the act of valuation. That was the case in the conglomerate boom, where per-share earnings growth could be manufactured by acquisitions, and also in the international lending boom where the lending activities of the banks helped improve the debt ratios that banks used to guide them in their lending activity.

Make reflexivity a part of your mental-model for evaluating markets. Not only will it allow you to better identify potentially fantastic trades, but it will also make you aware of already large price/reality divergences that are ripe for a bust.

[Mr.Profit]

интересна графика, която казва доста...

[Mr.Profit]

Ще допълня, че ако някой реши да играе тази игра поради високата волатилност използваната от мен стратегия е удачна. Разделя се желаната сума за инвестиция на няколко равни части - примерно 3 и се купува, когато се види спад с около 30%-70%.

[Mr.Profit]

При криптовалутите в момента е много интересно

правя покупка на 20 NMC/USD на 2.85 и слагам лимититирани поръчки за покупка на 60 на 1.60 и покупка на 150 на 0.90

Това е писано на 25.02.2014. След като задълбах повече в криптосите (дефиницията на Димитър Радев е криптостока, с която съм съгласен, но крипто е по-кратко) продавам всички налични неймкойн на цена 4.05 nmc/usd и купувам пиъркойн PPC на 5.10 ppc/usd.

За тези години не станах милионер от криптосите, но и не загубих Успях да утроя първоначалната инвестиция, която беше около 0,5% от високоликвидните ми активи. Мисля си, че до 3% е приемлив риск. Успях да науча и доста нови неща и като цяло си е интересно. При високата световна задлъжнялост в един момент управляващите могат да се изкушат да решат проблема с висока инфлация и при такъв сценарий си мисля, че криптосите могат да се представят изключително добре. Отделно при много други сценарии си мисля, че също има място за тях под слънцето особено в частта за запазване на стойност. Точно затова съм се фокусирал върху криптоси, които имат конкурентни предимства в тази насока.

[Mr.Profit]

Поствам една статия на Мариян, която отразява и моите впечатления.

Ще добавя, че виждам промяна към по-добро в КФН с новия председател Карина Караиванова защото ходих на място и успях да поговоря с експерти по интересуващи ме теми. Няколко пъти звънях и на информационния център към тях и като цяло останах удовлетворен.

При БФБ виждам позитиви с новите критерии, пътят към повече прозрачност и провежданите курсове по интересни теми.

При ЦД с публикуването на фри флоута и изграждането на връзки с големи клирингови институции.

Приносът на МФ виждам в пренасочването на Карина Караиванова към КФН и възможността за търговия на ДЦК на БФБ.

Пътят към една по-богата България минава през развит капиталов пазар. Българите ще станем по-богати, когато се научим да инвестираме в печеливши проекти на разумни цени. Всеки може да помогне с каквото го бива в името на тази кауза.

[спекуланта]

Виж, не искам да прозвучи грубо, но как очакваш да получиш еднозначен отговор на толкова сложен казус, който продължава да търпи развитие и не е приключил още? Задълбай в проблема, изрази тезата си, подкрепи я с факти и тогава съм склонен да коментирам в темата за Доверие ОХ.

Няма какво да се задълбава,просто исках да кажа "че казаната дума никога не означава хвърлен камък" ,дори и казана от споменатия човек....до момента факт е че това все още не се е случило.....това е

[Mr.Profit]

Ами думата на господин Донев че Софарма ще извърши концентрация на Доверие вече не се ли брои и зачита.....

Виж, не искам да прозвучи грубо, но как очакваш да получиш еднозначен отговор на толкова сложен казус, който продължава да търпи развитие и не е приключил още? Задълбай в проблема, изрази тезата си, подкрепи я с факти и тогава съм склонен да коментирам в темата за Доверие ОХ.

[спекуланта]

Направени покупки на ДОХ и Софарма.

Имаме повишен кредитен рейтинг на България + думите (вероятно и действия) на господин Донев за нивото 4.27. Тези две събития според мен могат да подновят бичия тренд и аз лично се опитвам да ги отиграя през Софарма и Доверие ОХ заради думите на господин Донев за нивото 4.27 при Софарма и високата бета и свързаността със Софарма при Доверие ОХ.

Мнението не е препоръка за търговия!

Ами думата на господин Донев че Софарма ще извърши концентрация на Доверие вече не се ли брои и зачита.....

[Mr.Profit]

Какво правя? С покупките си питам Реалността каква е ситуацията в момента. Каква е тежестта на думата на господин Донев и каква е тежестта на кредитния рейтинг във формирането на цените на акциите. Ако се окаже, че те имат голяма тежест това ми дава възможност да заема позиции с много прилично съотношение риск/печалба защото това, което рискувам е незначително на фона на потенциалната награда. Времето ще ни даде отговора на този въпрос...

[Mr.Profit]

Направени покупки на ДОХ и Софарма.

Имаме повишен кредитен рейтинг на България + думите (вероятно и действия) на господин Донев за нивото 4.27. Тези две събития според мен могат да подновят бичия тренд и аз лично се опитвам да ги отиграя през Софарма и Доверие ОХ заради думите на господин Донев за нивото 4.27 при Софарма и високата бета и свързаността със Софарма при Доверие ОХ.

Мнението не е препоръка за търговия!

[ceneto]

Ето и нещо ново, което ми прави впечатление от известно време. БНБ ни води за ръка в инвестициите и ни казва кога да купуваме и продаваме. Като цяло си мисля, че разполагат с експертния потенциал и аз лично мисля да се съобразявам с оценките им.

бнб-то разбраха ли вече какво стана с к-т-б, та се хвърлиха в такива предизвикателни начинания

[Mr.Profit]

Ето и нещо ново, което ми прави впечатление от известно време. БНБ ни води за ръка в инвестициите и ни казва кога да купуваме и продаваме. Като цяло си мисля, че разполагат с експертния потенциал и аз лично мисля да се съобразявам с оценките им.