Валутна търговия - FOREX - АРХИВ

[Jekata]

forex

Уж е 1.3274.

[Jekata]

forex

Уж е 1.3274.

[Jekata]

forex

Уж е 1.3274.

[кОкО]

forex

3274

[Jackson]

forex

колеги, колко е EUR/USD в момента????????????????????

[iwo]

forex

i like this game otvariam nadolo to tragne nagore -zatvariam i otvariam nagore -to pochne da pada - moia den

[iwo]

jekata

jeka zanuli 50-100 smetki na demo da si nachechich krastata -za reala vinagi ima vreme

[iwo]

balamata

ako si zabeliazal na tretoto udvoiavane sled zagubata smetkata se zanuliava - uvelichavai samo s po 33% uspeh

[iwo]

balamata

toia metod bate mi e iasen ochte ot parvi klas kogato igrah v ot las vegas

[Марио Димитров]

ФОРУМ

Jekata,
Дано това ти помогне.
Затворих си дългите gbp/jpy +120p.

Моля администратора да изтрие единия от предните постове.
Съжалявам.
Успех

[Марио Димитров]

ФОРУМ

FOREX REPORT 24-11-04 By Kathy Lien and Patrick Dyess
THE WEEK AHEAD:

With the euro breaking to fresh all-time highs, bearish dollar sentiment continues to grapple the markets. With trading expected to grind to a near halt following today?s University of Michigan consumer confidence report and weekly oil inventory data, it is unlikely that we will see the EURUSD reverse course. The only possibility is modest profit taking ahead of the holidays with many trading desks on skeleton crews. Speculators and hedge funds with euro long positions that have paid off handsomely over the past two weeks may want to book some profits as the pair encounters resistance at the highs of the year. Meanwhile, dealers - who have had to absorb the majority of dollar selling in the past week - will want to exploit any dollar bullish news to reduce their inventory.

One of the major questions that our clients have been asking is if there is any hope that the dollar will recovery and our response is, "there is." The US has been running a current account deficit for over 10 years. Although the deficit is now at record highs and has received a significant amount of attention from US government officials, the current account deficit was also rising this spring. The difference between now and then is that at that time, the market focused on the US growth story and ignored the widening deficits. If there is sufficient reasoning for the market to shift focus (ie. incredibly strong US data), the recovery in the dollar could be sharp especially since the market is now crowded into the short dollar trade. The weaker dollar will also eventually help to boost exports and trigger a wider economic recovery. Furthermore, the decline in the dollar has so far been welcomed only by the US. Europe, Canada, and Japan have been pretty vocal in expressing their discontent with the dollar's slide. Aside from intervention, these governments could also implement their own protectionist measures in retaliation.


KEY EVENTS LAST WEEK:

Euro Propelled to New Heights on Central Bankers? Comments & Decisions

After Major Drops in USDJPY, It Is Finally ?Proper Time To Consider Intervention?

************************************************** *********************************************

Market Disregards Dollar Data and Looks to Greenspan Instead

This past week, we have seen a massive decoupling of the relationship between US data and the US dollar. Last Wednesday, the dollar continued to sell off despite stronger than expected consumer prices, industrial production and capacity utilization. Consumer prices grew by the fastest pace of growth since April 1999. The data went unrewarded as it was overshadowed by the stellar PPI released a day earlier, which reflected growth at the fastest pace in 12 years. On Thursday, the dollar rallied despite weaker leading indicators and Philly Fed. Leading indicators fell -0.3%, which is the fifth consecutive monthly decline and the Philly Fed index retraced from 28.5 to 20.70. The overall release was not that bad given the improvement in the employment component and the significant jump in the expectations component of the report (from 27.6 to 52.1). Profit taking the night before speeches from Greenspan, Trichet and Iwata at the European Banking Congress also helped push the euro back below 1.30 against the US dollar. However, Greenspan?s comments drove the euro back up above 1.3050 within 30 hours of the dollar rally. At the conference, he stated that foreign investors? interest in U.S. securities looks to be waning in light of current economic conditions in the world?s largest economy. Greenspan explained that widening trade deficits and exceeding imports add risk to the dollar valuation and will bring further dollar weakness as investors searched for higher rates of return. The failure of the central bankers and finance ministers to make any comments about the dollar's recent slide following the weekend?s G20 meeting gives the dollar an even better reason to retain its current course. The US current account deficit, at a record $166.2 billion for second quarter, appears to be one of the gravest concerns of the US government officials at this point and until they signal that the correction has been enough or that either European or Japanese governments take physical action to curb the decline, there is no reason for the dollar to reverse course at this time.


Euro Propelled to New Heights on Central Banks? Comments & Decisions

It was only a matter of time that the euro would rally beyond its previous high of 1.3005. Last Wednesday?s surge higher was brought on by comments from US Treasury Secretary John Snow in London. He confirmed that the US government has no intentions of backing collaborative intervention. He also added that the "history of efforts to impose non- market valuation (or intervention) on currencies is at best unrewarding and checkered." All that ECB officials have been able to do at this point is express their continued discontent. In our opinion, even though the ECB believes that intervention without the collaboration of the US will not be effective, we believe that it would send a strong message to the market that they are not willing to tolerate further euro strength and refuse to be at the whim of their neighbors across the Atlantic. Meanwhile, the Russian central bank said that the fall in the dollar along with increasing trade with Europe has forced them to consider diversifying their reserve holdings. The central bank currently holds 60% of their reserves in dollars and 30% in euros. They now plan on flipping that composition to 60% euros and 30% dollars. Since Russia's current reserve holdings are approximately USD113 billion, the shift in reserve composition will clearly be a sizeable amount. This could set a precedent for future reserve reallocations by other central banks around the world, including Japan and China. The Euro catapulted to a high of 1.3107 on news that the Russian Central bank may be considering reviewing their euro reserve allocations. Prior to the weekend?s G20 summit, ECB President Jean Claude Trichet made no indications of suggestions of stemming the euro?s advance in light of suggestions by German Economic Minister Wolfgang Clement. During an interview in Bangkok, Clement urged global policy makers to take action against the recent decline in the dollar as it poses a significant risk to economic growth and expansion, threatening to hurt European global exports.

After Major Drops in USDJPY, It Is Finally ?Proper Time To Consider Intervention?

The dollar has fallen to the weakest level against the Japanese yen since April of this year. Around the time of the 105-level breaching, Japanese finance minister Tanigaki warned that, "If there are rapid (yen) moves, we will take firm action." The BoJ has been playing with the idea of intervention for a while now and the real question now is not if, but when. As one of the central banks that are most in tune with market positioning, the MoF typically wants to get the most bang for its buck and wait for speculative positioning to reach extreme levels in hopes that the move following their intervention efforts to buy dollars would be exacerbated by short covering. By Friday, the dollar fell below the psychological 103 price barrier on further bearish sentiment. Exacerbating the plunge were comments made by BoJ Deputy Governor Kazumasa Iwata at the European Banking Congress. Iwata suggested that the recent appreciation in the yen was tolerable as currencies look to be stabilizing. As a result, investors continued the dollar sell-off on expectations that the Bank of Japan will be less likely to intervene aggressively at current valuations. This leads many investors to believe a hefty defense to strengthen around the 100 yen barrier rather than the previously expected 103 and 105 yen levels. Subsequently attributing to the more lax attitude has been continued optimism in the sustainability of economic expansion in Japan. For the first time in eight years, policy makers have forecasted core prices to increase in the coming fiscal year in light of better than expected consumer sentiment and positive growth forecasts of 4 percent for 2004. At the G20 summit, MoF Watanabe reiterated the government's concern about the dollar's rapid moves against the majors last week. The EURUSD has borne the brunt of the dollar correction thus far and the market is beginning to shift this responsibility over to Asia. Intervention risks increase further as Watanabe announced that ?now is the proper time to consider intervention.? Over the past 3 years, there has only been one period (before this fiscal year began) that the Ministry of Finance has allowed USDJPY to slide below 104 without intervening. There are 2 primary reasons why the Japanese may be waiting. Despite the 14% increase in the non-commercial net long positioning on the IMM last week, positioning has yet to reach the extreme levels that were seen last February. Also, increased export demand within Asia reduces pressure on Japanese exporters.

[Марио Димитров]

ФОРУМ

FOREX REPORT 24-11-04 By Kathy Lien and Patrick Dyess
THE WEEK AHEAD:

With the euro breaking to fresh all-time highs, bearish dollar sentiment continues to grapple the markets. With trading expected to grind to a near halt following today?s University of Michigan consumer confidence report and weekly oil inventory data, it is unlikely that we will see the EURUSD reverse course. The only possibility is modest profit taking ahead of the holidays with many trading desks on skeleton crews. Speculators and hedge funds with euro long positions that have paid off handsomely over the past two weeks may want to book some profits as the pair encounters resistance at the highs of the year. Meanwhile, dealers - who have had to absorb the majority of dollar selling in the past week - will want to exploit any dollar bullish news to reduce their inventory.

One of the major questions that our clients have been asking is if there is any hope that the dollar will recovery and our response is, "there is." The US has been running a current account deficit for over 10 years. Although the deficit is now at record highs and has received a significant amount of attention from US government officials, the current account deficit was also rising this spring. The difference between now and then is that at that time, the market focused on the US growth story and ignored the widening deficits. If there is sufficient reasoning for the market to shift focus (ie. incredibly strong US data), the recovery in the dollar could be sharp especially since the market is now crowded into the short dollar trade. The weaker dollar will also eventually help to boost exports and trigger a wider economic recovery. Furthermore, the decline in the dollar has so far been welcomed only by the US. Europe, Canada, and Japan have been pretty vocal in expressing their discontent with the dollar's slide. Aside from intervention, these governments could also implement their own protectionist measures in retaliation.


KEY EVENTS LAST WEEK:

Euro Propelled to New Heights on Central Bankers? Comments & Decisions

After Major Drops in USDJPY, It Is Finally ?Proper Time To Consider Intervention?

************************************************** *********************************************

Market Disregards Dollar Data and Looks to Greenspan Instead

This past week, we have seen a massive decoupling of the relationship between US data and the US dollar. Last Wednesday, the dollar continued to sell off despite stronger than expected consumer prices, industrial production and capacity utilization. Consumer prices grew by the fastest pace of growth since April 1999. The data went unrewarded as it was overshadowed by the stellar PPI released a day earlier, which reflected growth at the fastest pace in 12 years. On Thursday, the dollar rallied despite weaker leading indicators and Philly Fed. Leading indicators fell -0.3%, which is the fifth consecutive monthly decline and the Philly Fed index retraced from 28.5 to 20.70. The overall release was not that bad given the improvement in the employment component and the significant jump in the expectations component of the report (from 27.6 to 52.1). Profit taking the night before speeches from Greenspan, Trichet and Iwata at the European Banking Congress also helped push the euro back below 1.30 against the US dollar. However, Greenspan?s comments drove the euro back up above 1.3050 within 30 hours of the dollar rally. At the conference, he stated that foreign investors? interest in U.S. securities looks to be waning in light of current economic conditions in the world?s largest economy. Greenspan explained that widening trade deficits and exceeding imports add risk to the dollar valuation and will bring further dollar weakness as investors searched for higher rates of return. The failure of the central bankers and finance ministers to make any comments about the dollar's recent slide following the weekend?s G20 meeting gives the dollar an even better reason to retain its current course. The US current account deficit, at a record $166.2 billion for second quarter, appears to be one of the gravest concerns of the US government officials at this point and until they signal that the correction has been enough or that either European or Japanese governments take physical action to curb the decline, there is no reason for the dollar to reverse course at this time.


Euro Propelled to New Heights on Central Banks? Comments & Decisions

It was only a matter of time that the euro would rally beyond its previous high of 1.3005. Last Wednesday?s surge higher was brought on by comments from US Treasury Secretary John Snow in London. He confirmed that the US government has no intentions of backing collaborative intervention. He also added that the "history of efforts to impose non- market valuation (or intervention) on currencies is at best unrewarding and checkered." All that ECB officials have been able to do at this point is express their continued discontent. In our opinion, even though the ECB believes that intervention without the collaboration of the US will not be effective, we believe that it would send a strong message to the market that they are not willing to tolerate further euro strength and refuse to be at the whim of their neighbors across the Atlantic. Meanwhile, the Russian central bank said that the fall in the dollar along with increasing trade with Europe has forced them to consider diversifying their reserve holdings. The central bank currently holds 60% of their reserves in dollars and 30% in euros. They now plan on flipping that composition to 60% euros and 30% dollars. Since Russia's current reserve holdings are approximately USD113 billion, the shift in reserve composition will clearly be a sizeable amount. This could set a precedent for future reserve reallocations by other central banks around the world, including Japan and China. The Euro catapulted to a high of 1.3107 on news that the Russian Central bank may be considering reviewing their euro reserve allocations. Prior to the weekend?s G20 summit, ECB President Jean Claude Trichet made no indications of suggestions of stemming the euro?s advance in light of suggestions by German Economic Minister Wolfgang Clement. During an interview in Bangkok, Clement urged global policy makers to take action against the recent decline in the dollar as it poses a significant risk to economic growth and expansion, threatening to hurt European global exports.

After Major Drops in USDJPY, It Is Finally ?Proper Time To Consider Intervention?

The dollar has fallen to the weakest level against the Japanese yen since April of this year. Around the time of the 105-level breaching, Japanese finance minister Tanigaki warned that, "If there are rapid (yen) moves, we will take firm action." The BoJ has been playing with the idea of intervention for a while now and the real question now is not if, but when. As one of the central banks that are most in tune with market positioning, the MoF typically wants to get the most bang for its buck and wait for speculative positioning to reach extreme levels in hopes that the move following their intervention efforts to buy dollars would be exacerbated by short covering. By Friday, the dollar fell below the psychological 103 price barrier on further bearish sentiment. Exacerbating the plunge were comments made by BoJ Deputy Governor Kazumasa Iwata at the European Banking Congress. Iwata suggested that the recent appreciation in the yen was tolerable as currencies look to be stabilizing. As a result, investors continued the dollar sell-off on expectations that the Bank of Japan will be less likely to intervene aggressively at current valuations. This leads many investors to believe a hefty defense to strengthen around the 100 yen barrier rather than the previously expected 103 and 105 yen levels. Subsequently attributing to the more lax attitude has been continued optimism in the sustainability of economic expansion in Japan. For the first time in eight years, policy makers have forecasted core prices to increase in the coming fiscal year in light of better than expected consumer sentiment and positive growth forecasts of 4 percent for 2004. At the G20 summit, MoF Watanabe reiterated the government's concern about the dollar's rapid moves against the majors last week. The EURUSD has borne the brunt of the dollar correction thus far and the market is beginning to shift this responsibility over to Asia. Intervention risks increase further as Watanabe announced that ?now is the proper time to consider intervention.? Over the past 3 years, there has only been one period (before this fiscal year began) that the Ministry of Finance has allowed USDJPY to slide below 104 without intervening. There are 2 primary reasons why the Japanese may be waiting. Despite the 14% increase in the non-commercial net long positioning on the IMM last week, positioning has yet to reach the extreme levels that were seen last February. Also, increased export demand within Asia reduces pressure on Japanese exporters.

[Jekata]

ФОРУМ

Марио,проблема е че не чаткам руски,аз съм от младата генерация)Мерси все пак!
Иво-да се надяваме,че новите няма да фалират,а ще дръпнат и ще помогнат на фалиралите си учители

[кОкО]

ФОРУМ

Sledia za podhodiasht vhod za dalga s cel ve4e 1.34-

[Баламата]

ФОРУМ

Ивка, недей така бе, братко, ние не фалирахме пет години, че сега ли Е, загубихме по някой пипс от игра срещу тренда, ама още мърдаме, нали така И сега пак сме къси от 1.33 ама с цел 1.3260. А има и метод на Мартингейл, който ще си изясниш след около 2 години, вероятно. Абе общо взето може да се играе форекс, важното е да имаш система и НИКОГА да не се отклоняваш от правилата които сам си си създал. Успех на всички