NYSE

[Black and white cat-foot]

Пак от същото място, БлакРок за това, кога ще дойде следващата рецесия:



https://www.blackrockblog.com/2017/0...esting-themes/

[Misho ILIEV]

Пак от същото място, БлакРок за това, кога ще дойде следващата рецесия:

The current U.S. economic cycle has been unusually long, sparking market fears that it is ready to die of old age. We have a different take. The slower the pace of a recovery, the longer it takes to absorb the economic slack created in the last recession—and the longer it takes to reach full capacity and ultimately the peak that signals the cycle’s end, our analysis shows. The economy’s sluggish growth means that the current cycle has a long way to run, in our view, and its remaining lifespan can be measured in years, not quarters. The current landscape of subdued inflation and wage growth supports this.

https://www.blackrockblog.com/2017/0...esting-themes/

[Black and white cat-foot]

оглеждам FCUUF дали става за купуване

пас за FCUUF, мениджмънта не ме кефи

[Misho ILIEV]

Глътка оптимизъм за инвеститори в акции:

“Worrying about equity valuations — particularly in the US — has become a favourite pastime,” the investment house said in a 16-slide report headed by chief strategist Richard Turnill.

“We see the world in a synchronised and sustained economic expansion that is slower than previous cycles. We believe structurally lower growth and interest rates mean that comparing valuation metrics to past levels may not be a good guide to the future. We see low volatility as a normal feature of the benign economic and financial backdrop — and not as a warning sign in itself. Taken together, this could mean equities are cheaper than they look — and investors may run the risk of being under-risked,” he wrote.

[Black and white cat-foot]

оглеждам FCUUF дали става за купуване

[Misho ILIEV]

Днес чакаме отчетите на големите американски банки. Ниската волатилност означава ниски печалби от търговия с облигации. Но пък покачващите се лихви са добре дошли.

The Federal Reserve’s tightening of monetary policy should be a boon for banks. Lenders have pushed up interest charges for borrowers: the “prime rate”, used to determine the prices of loans such as credit cards, has risen from 3.5 per cent a year ago to 4.25 per cent. Depositors, meanwhile, continue to be squeezed. The average rate on savings accounts has remained unchanged — a paltry 0.08 per cent.

The results should show banks are pocketing the difference. The closely watched “net interest margin” (NIM) — the gap between banks’ cost of funds and their returns from loans and other assets — hit a 60-year low last year. After an 8 point improvement in the first three months, Barclays reckons NIMs will rise between 3 and 6 basis points in the second quarter.

Investors want to know how long banks can hold the line on deposit rates. It is only a matter of time before competition forces them to offer savers better deals.

[Misho ILIEV]

Американски банки. Според БлакРок.

Ciolli: I keep hearing that financial stocks are set to benefit from the double dip of higher interest rates and looser regulation, yet buy ratings from single-stock analysts are fairly scarce. What's your view on the sector?

Moore: Financials are still not a particularly well-owned sector. It looks to us like the Street is not even at a neutral position in banks. Because it's not the most popular trade, and because we can see a sustained improvement in earnings and shareholder returns, it still looks like a very interesting sector. The performance that we've had over the last month feels justified, and that the catch-up was long overdue.

We have a constructive view on the macro, and this is critically important when we think about banks. In a sustained economic expansion, where we have a consistently firming labor market, which should eventually support some wage inflation and help credit demand, we think the Fed will stay on track in terms of normalization. If that's your belief, you should expect that this modest rate increase that we're getting will not only be good for the economy but also good for demand and the bottom line of bank stocks.

We find that banks are much slower to pass along higher rates to depositors, so every incremental hike in rates goes directly to the bottom line. We're also seeing banks getting more conservative about lending. I also feel super encouraged by the stress-test results and the cash-return strategies that we expect banks to pay out. And valuations are not stretched. We're close to the five-year average for US financial stocks, while other sectors have re-rated.

For me, it checks all the boxes. It has a good macro story. It has a good fundamental story that will improve on the back of the macro, both from a policy perspective as well as for demand for financial services. You don't have any valuation roadblock. And you have positioning and sentiment that doesn't look extreme. It's very hard for me not to like the sector.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/blackr...terview-2017-7

[Misho ILIEV]

Слуховете за корекция в тек сектора са силно преувеличени. Реално нищо не се е случило, просто ниската волатилност кара хората да търсят смисъл и в най-малкото движение.

Those that watch the grass grow get excited when the breeze blows.

(Древна китайска поговорка измислена от Robeco през 2017г. )
.
.

https://www.robeco.com/media/1/6/a/1...tcm17-8922.pdf

[Misho ILIEV]

" „За да разберете колко са големи американски банки, една финансова институция като JP Morgan е по-голяма от общата капитализация на банките в Испания, Германия, Франция и Италия“, казва експертът."
http://www.investor.bg/analizi/91/a/...urenti-242944/
коментира пред изданието Дейвид Кокър, преподавател по счетоводство, финанси и управление в Westminster Business School.
Все си мислех, че нивото в това школо трябва да е по-височко ...

Но така или иначе JP Morgan е в пъти по-голяма банка като пазарна капитализация от големите френски, италиански или немски банки взети по отделно. Което е нормално, защото европейският банков пазар не е достатъчно интегриран.

[Protokol]

" „За да разберете колко са големи американски банки, една финансова институция като JP Morgan е по-голяма от общата капитализация на банките в Испания, Германия, Франция и Италия“, казва експертът."
http://www.investor.bg/analizi/91/a/...urenti-242944/
коментира пред изданието Дейвид Кокър, преподавател по счетоводство, финанси и управление в Westminster Business School.
Все си мислех, че нивото в това школо трябва да е по-височко ...

[Misho ILIEV]

Yellen, Brainard Sound Similar Note on Rate Increases

The neutral rate of interest (the underlying rate that keeps the economy on an even keel) remains low by historical standards, according to the chairwoman, and that means "the federal funds rate would not have to rise all that much further to get to a neutral policy stance." Ms. Yellen's comments on the neutral rate echo those made by Fed governor Lael Brainard a day earlier, who said a low neutral rate over the medium term means "we would not have much more additional work to do on moving to a neutral stance." Nonetheless, Ms. Yellen reiterated in her testimony that she expects gradual rate increases will be appropriate over the next few years.

[Black and white cat-foot]

купих NXE днес

[Misho ILIEV]

Smart beta-та е много на мода, много пари се изливат там, но ФТ предупреждава, че инвеститорите може масово да се набутват там точно когато идва време smart beta-та да почне да дава по-лоши резултати.

There are fears that analysis that underpins the strategies is not rigorous enough and that investors are piling into the funds at a time when their performance could decline.

https://www.ft.com/content/16d47d2c-...4-0ac7eb84e5f1

[Misho ILIEV]

Мишо, дали според тебе това ще е свързано със забавянето в доставка на суровината и "пакетирането" на батериите!?
според това може да е едната спънка в плановете.

Фери, не съм много навътре с подробностите за Тесла. Просто оценката на пазара за Тесла ми се струва абсурдно висока. За мене всяка малка спънка може да постави начало на движение надолу, което като тръгне може да върви по инерция повече отколкото самата спънка предполага.

Коментарът ми е съвсем общ. Нямам нищо конкретно предвид. Но рискът според мене е съвсем конкретен и реален.

[Ferry]

Тесла могат лесно да паднат още много. По-добре не купувай сега.

Мишо, дали според тебе това ще е свързано със забавянето в доставка на суровината и "пакетирането" на батериите!?
според това може да е едната спънка в плановете.