Пазарният срив от март месец за фундаметалисти...
The first question is whether the market behaved “rationally” in the sense that the entire decline and rebound in equity prices can be explained by alterations in growth expectations, driven by the economic shutdowns to control the virus in March, followed by the start of unlocking in April and May. That does not appear to be the case.
To understand why, start with the idea that the stock market’s total value equals the present value of the benefits equity holders expect in the future. This changes for two reasons. First, expectations about the size of the benefits — corporate earnings and dividends — rise and fall. Second, the present value of these future benefits is affected by what is known as the equity discount rate. This is equal to the return on safe assets like Treasuries plus what investors expect to be paid for the extra risks — losses, bankruptcy — of owning shares.
Augustin Landier and David Thesmar have presented evidence that suggests only a small part of the US equity price changes were explained by corporate earnings expectations. In the downward leg, a survey of investment analysts’ earnings forecasts for 2020-23 shows that the present value of these earnings fell only a few per cent from the start of the year, assuming the discount rate remained the same as that pre-Covid-19. During the equities recovery, earnings expectations continued to decline, thus explaining none of the bounceback.
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