Лошото е, че рискът идващ от Китай не е съвсем пренебрежим. Ако се размине с леко девалвиране на юана и "износ" на дефлация - ок. Но не е ясно какво ще стане при по-голяма девалвация или пък ако натрупаният дълг и балона с недвижимите имоти гръмне.
По принцип Китай трябва да може да се справи със ситуацията като се има предвид колко още има да наваксва и расте докато стигне развитите страни. Но успехът не е 100% гарантиран.
"The inflation profile remains soft and the continuous PPI deflation suggests that Chinese companies will have to reduce their debt as further expansion in many industries will only lead to more loss," wrote Zhou Hao, economist at Commerzbank in Singapore.
...
The risk of entrenched deflation is a nightmare for China, which desperately wants to avoid becoming stuck in a trap where falling prices sap economic vitality. Deflationary cycles encourage consumers to hold off from buying and businesses to hold off from investing indefinitely, on expectations that prices will continue falling.
Such cycles can prove extremely difficult to escape, and Chinese policy makers have kept a worried eye on the example of Japan, where a strong currency, distorted banking sector and muddled monetary policy combined to suppress growth for decades.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/08/chine...-sluggish.html
http://www.bloombergview.com/article...rashing-stocks
По принцип Китай трябва да може да се справи със ситуацията като се има предвид колко още има да наваксва и расте докато стигне развитите страни. Но успехът не е 100% гарантиран.
"The inflation profile remains soft and the continuous PPI deflation suggests that Chinese companies will have to reduce their debt as further expansion in many industries will only lead to more loss," wrote Zhou Hao, economist at Commerzbank in Singapore.
...
The risk of entrenched deflation is a nightmare for China, which desperately wants to avoid becoming stuck in a trap where falling prices sap economic vitality. Deflationary cycles encourage consumers to hold off from buying and businesses to hold off from investing indefinitely, on expectations that prices will continue falling.
Such cycles can prove extremely difficult to escape, and Chinese policy makers have kept a worried eye on the example of Japan, where a strong currency, distorted banking sector and muddled monetary policy combined to suppress growth for decades.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/08/chine...-sluggish.html
http://www.bloombergview.com/article...rashing-stocks
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