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Oppenheimer sees three ways forward for markets:
Reflation — growth picks up, but bond yields do too;
Stagflation — inflation propels bond yields higher, but without a commensurate acceleration in growth; and
Fat and Flat — the most likely scenario, a continuation of the current trend of sluggish growth and low bond yields.
Notably, the potential for multiple expansion in light of ultra-low bond yields – a key component of the Fed Model that's pointed to attractiveness of equities over sovereign debt – isn't likely to come to fruition even under the "fat and flat" scenario, the strategist argues.
"There are limits to how much yields alone can drive equity valuations, in our view," he writes. "Eventually, they have to reflect a realistic assumption about long-term nominal growth."
Reflation — growth picks up, but bond yields do too;
Stagflation — inflation propels bond yields higher, but without a commensurate acceleration in growth; and
Fat and Flat — the most likely scenario, a continuation of the current trend of sluggish growth and low bond yields.
Notably, the potential for multiple expansion in light of ultra-low bond yields – a key component of the Fed Model that's pointed to attractiveness of equities over sovereign debt – isn't likely to come to fruition even under the "fat and flat" scenario, the strategist argues.
"There are limits to how much yields alone can drive equity valuations, in our view," he writes. "Eventually, they have to reflect a realistic assumption about long-term nominal growth."
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