"People can be astonishingly intransigeant and capabale of rationalising like crazy to avoid acknowledging new information that upsets their settled beliefs. Consider the 1942 argument of General John DeWitt, a strong supporter of internment of Japanese Americans: "The fact that no sabotage has taken place to date is a disturbing and confirming indication that such action will be taken." - or, put that more bluntly, "The fact that what I expected to happen didn't happen proves that it will."
Philip Tetlock & Dan Gardner, "Superforecasting--the Art and Science of Prediction"
Philip Tetlock & Dan Gardner, "Superforecasting--the Art and Science of Prediction"
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