И още една много добра статия за маркет тайминга
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why...ork-2013-10-23
Investors don't like losing money. Yet you'll do just that about half the time when you follow a trend-following timing system.
Investors especially don't like losing money time after time. But you'll often have multiple losing trades in succession before timing produces a profit.
Investors hate to be wrong and have it rubbed in their faces. But often a timing system can tell you to sell a fund at a certain price and then buy it back at a higher price. Even though this is normal, it makes timing seem insane — producing losses instead of preventing them.
Investors hate to make mistake after mistake. Yet a timing discipline requires them to keep buying and selling without knowing the outcome. The moment you override the system, there is no system left and the strategy has failed. You have no way to know when to jump on the bandwagon again except by following your emotions — and that is a notoriously poor way to time your investments.
Investors want everything they can get during bull markets. Yet the very nature of trend-following timing systems virtually guarantees lower returns during those good times.
Investors — at least those who are counting on timing to protect them — don't like to sit idly and lose money while they wait for their system to recognize "what any idiot can see," that the market is heading down.
Investors like what they are doing to "make sense." Most of the trading signals generated by trend-following systems fail that test.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/why...ork-2013-10-23
Investors don't like losing money. Yet you'll do just that about half the time when you follow a trend-following timing system.
Investors especially don't like losing money time after time. But you'll often have multiple losing trades in succession before timing produces a profit.
Investors hate to be wrong and have it rubbed in their faces. But often a timing system can tell you to sell a fund at a certain price and then buy it back at a higher price. Even though this is normal, it makes timing seem insane — producing losses instead of preventing them.
Investors hate to make mistake after mistake. Yet a timing discipline requires them to keep buying and selling without knowing the outcome. The moment you override the system, there is no system left and the strategy has failed. You have no way to know when to jump on the bandwagon again except by following your emotions — and that is a notoriously poor way to time your investments.
Investors want everything they can get during bull markets. Yet the very nature of trend-following timing systems virtually guarantees lower returns during those good times.
Investors — at least those who are counting on timing to protect them — don't like to sit idly and lose money while they wait for their system to recognize "what any idiot can see," that the market is heading down.
Investors like what they are doing to "make sense." Most of the trading signals generated by trend-following systems fail that test.
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