Първоначално изпратено от Black and white cat-foot
Разгледай мнение
***
Един любопитен факт, показващ колко неточни могат да са препоръките на финансовите специалисти.
На 16 януари 2013г. Рус Кьосетрич писа, че е време да се изилиза от американските активи и да се купуват европейските и тези на възникващите пазари.
To benefit from global growth even more directly, investors can reduce their overall US allocation. For most of the past three years, the US has been a safe port in the storm. Part of the reason is an incredibly resilient corporate sector, which until recently has effectively delivered double-digit earnings from low single-digit economic growth. But US competitiveness was not the only factor. On a relative basis, the US has been the unintended beneficiary of an unexpected slowdown in emerging markets, Europe’s existential crisis, and an aggressive Federal Reserve.
Today, while US companies are still reasonably priced, they are relatively expensive compared with the rest of the world (the S&P 500 trades at a 40 per cent premium to international markets based on price-to-book). Given the near-term outlook for slower growth, more volatility, and a debt-ceiling showdown, that premium may no longer be justified. At the same time, the rest of the world is in marginally better shape. Given the shift in relative fundamentals, investors should consider reallocating some portion of their holdings out of the US and into emerging markets, smaller developed markets and European exporters.
Today, while US companies are still reasonably priced, they are relatively expensive compared with the rest of the world (the S&P 500 trades at a 40 per cent premium to international markets based on price-to-book). Given the near-term outlook for slower growth, more volatility, and a debt-ceiling showdown, that premium may no longer be justified. At the same time, the rest of the world is in marginally better shape. Given the shift in relative fundamentals, investors should consider reallocating some portion of their holdings out of the US and into emerging markets, smaller developed markets and European exporters.
Коментар