Interest rates in America
Buckle up
Прегледно, има и малко ретроспекция, има и анализ на перспективити и последици от разни варианти.
Посоката кратко и ясно:
Getting this balance right will be tricky. Ms Yellen likes to emphasise that starting early keeps the journey smooth; abrupt rises later might rattle markets. Yet the Fed’s forecast for rates is steeper than what the market predicts. The Fed’s median rate-setter expects interest rates to rise to around 1.5% by the end of 2016; by contrast, traders expect rates of only 0.85% in a year’s time.
Оразмеряването на тази връзка също е впечатляваща:
If the Fed follows through on its forecasts, though, and raises rates faster than markets expect in 2016, the dollar may well rise further, dampening inflation quickly. Stanley Fischer, the Fed’s vice-chair, recently estimated that a 10% rise in the dollar reduces core inflation by half a percentage point within six months. For all her horizon-gazing, Ms Yellen is unlikely to persist with rapid rate rises if they push inflation too far below target in the short term.
Buckle up
Прегледно, има и малко ретроспекция, има и анализ на перспективити и последици от разни варианти.
Посоката кратко и ясно:
Getting this balance right will be tricky. Ms Yellen likes to emphasise that starting early keeps the journey smooth; abrupt rises later might rattle markets. Yet the Fed’s forecast for rates is steeper than what the market predicts. The Fed’s median rate-setter expects interest rates to rise to around 1.5% by the end of 2016; by contrast, traders expect rates of only 0.85% in a year’s time.
Оразмеряването на тази връзка също е впечатляваща:
If the Fed follows through on its forecasts, though, and raises rates faster than markets expect in 2016, the dollar may well rise further, dampening inflation quickly. Stanley Fischer, the Fed’s vice-chair, recently estimated that a 10% rise in the dollar reduces core inflation by half a percentage point within six months. For all her horizon-gazing, Ms Yellen is unlikely to persist with rapid rate rises if they push inflation too far below target in the short term.
Коментар