Дискусия за балона на НИ у нас и в чужбина

[zlodeia]

Kara- аз си имам мнение за този пазар(София), наблюдавам го от много време-повече от 10 години, и винаги ми е бил интересен. Това да наблюдаваш как промените в съзнанието на хората се отразяват върху цените(търсенето и предлагането) на НИ е страхотно, тук в София най-голямо значение има какво става в главите на хората, а не толкова колко е реалната цена на построения имот.София е различна от цялата страна,защото тук има търсене главно от българи, чужденците тепърва стъпват активно на този пазар. Моя съвет е да се съсредоточиш върху това което става в главите на софиянци, а не да препечатваш статийчета
за лихвите в Албания .Иначе някой от нещата които пишеш са верни, но много ги пресилваш, много грубо натрапваш на хората мнението си, може би си воден от мисълта, че си абсолютно прав, но все пак най-лошите неща се получават когато човек наистина си ПОВЯРВА.

[karakondjul]

За Банско съм съгласен, за морето също.Само .че София е нещо различно не забравяйте! Аз лично смятам , че ще има застой, но пък чак сривове и размирици...... Дайте да си говорим нормални неща а не измислици...

Злодея, как ти харесва статията по-долу?

[karakondjul]

Статия, която обобщава ситуацията в момента. Щатите, Испания, Франция и Ирландия, цените падат и повличат Източна Европа, Дубай.

Сривът на цените на НИ в България вече е публично известен и чуждестпанните инвеститори вероятно ще мислят за продажби и реализиране на печалби или по-малки загуби за по-късно влезлите.

Foreign property dreams crash

Irish investors face meltdown as real estate prices plummet throughout Europe and US

By Nick Webb and Louise McBride
Sunday October 21 2007

Tens of thousands of Irish homeowners may be facing financial meltdown as hugely hyped overseas property investments turn sour.

Lured by unrealistic promises of extraordinary returns, Irish investors borrowed heavily to pick up cheap buy-to-let apartments abroad. But property prices in these so called "hotspots" have begun to plummet in recent months.

Along with rising mortgage rates, the strong euro and dismal rental markets, dark clouds are forming for a so- called "Perfect Storm" that could decimate the investment nest eggs of the househunters in the sun.

About 150,000 Irish investors are thought to have bought properties in Spain. However, the oversupply of apartments in Spain's Costa del Sol has pushed the price of some properties down by as much as 20 per cent.

Last month, the Kyero Spanish house price index revealed massive price falls across the country, with the average value of a two-bed home in Mallorca falling ?33,000 to ?292,000 in the past four months.

Similar slumps have been logged in areas from Gran Canaria to Girona and Cadiz. Estate agents are now advertising "price-reduced" homes in almost every region.

The slowdown in the overseas property market comes at a time when Irish investors in properties promoted by Michael Lynn, the solicitor and property developer at the centre of an investigation by the Law Society, are already worried. Some of these investors have paid deposits on overseas property but have not yet secured the title.

"If you look at a typical two-bedroom apartment in the Costa del Sol, its paper value could be about ?250,000," said Darren Costello, managing director of propertyinvestments.ie, a Dublin firm that offers advice on overseas property investment.

"But you'd be hard-pressed to find a buyer for ?200,000."

One Irish investor is facing losses of about ?30,000 after buying a Budapest property for about ?79,855 three years ago. The investor, who is now trying to sell his property, was advised that the best sale price he can secure now is ?69,000. By the time he sells the apartment, he will have paid about ?20,000 in fees, taxes and renovations.

The US housing market is also in freefall, fuelled by the sub-prime crisis. The Florida property boom, which lured thousands of Irish fly-to-let investors, has gone into reverse. Investment properties are being advertised with massive reductions all across the state. A property at the Barefoot Beach Resort in Indian Shores has just had $14,000 sliced off its asking price in the past month.

Latest Federal data from the OFHEO reveals that 18 of the largest 20 urban price falls have been experienced in Florida and California. Houseprices in Punta Gorda have plummeted 7.12 per cent this year, with Sarasota and West Palm Beach also tumbling by up to 6 per cent. Property values in New York are also down by a half per cent in the last quarter.

"I know of one case in Florida where the house, which has a paper value of $300,000 (?210,525), is being repossessed," said Darren Costello. "The owner is looking to sell it for $200,000 (?140,350)."

Bulgaria has been touted as a investment "hotspot" by Irish property promoters. But new figures from investor.bg, reveal that apartment prices in Sunny Beach fell by 4 per cent in July alone.

Similar slumps have been experienced in Ahtopol, Prmorsko and SvetiVlass, as a massive oversupply of tourist apartments remains unsold.

Prices in popular developments such as Sea Dreams Village or the Iglika 1 complex have been reduced by up to one third, according to Icon Properties advertisements. Bulgarian ski resorts such as the hugely hyped Bankso are suffering, with local reports suggesting that the 150 local estate agents have not sold a property there for four months. Yields at some holiday homes and residential developments have tumbled by nearly 40 per cent. Many Irish investors are trapped in Bulgaria, unable to sell properties and struggling to meet mortgage repayments as introductory "guaranteed rental" deals come to an end.


Other hugely popular eastern European or Baltic markets have skidded to a halt, with dramatic price-falls in some countries. Latvia's bubble has well and truly burst, with the Latio Investment agency revealing falls of almost 11 per cent since April.

Estonia and Lithuania have also experienced decreasing property prices. The central statistics office in Poland has also reported values slipping in the second quarter of the year. In Budapest, Hungary, some 3 per cent has been snipped off prices of new apartments, according to the Global Property Guide.

Properties in Cyprus are also being advertised at "reduced prices", with a new build Coral Bay villa for sale at a massively discounted rate.

Dubai was also hugely popular with Irish buyers. Last week, some apartments in landmark Dubai developments, ranging from the Marina to the Media Zone towers, are on sale with prices reduced by as much as 10 per cent.

Overstretched Irish borrowers are already falling victim to the bursting foreign property bubble. One lender who specialises in overseas finance told this paper about a homeowner who raised ?700,000 in equity on their Dublin home to buy apartments in Turkey, Budapest and Bradford in England.

http://www.independent.ie/business/f...h-1200467.html

[Negramoten]

За Банско съм съгласен, за морето също.Само .че София е нещо различно не забравяйте! Аз лично смятам , че ще има застой, но пък чак сривове и размирици...... Дайте да си говорим нормални неща а не измислици...

Доскоро Банско и Слънчевбряг бяха "нещо различно" и там нямаше как да се загуби. Там англичаните и руснаците купуваха без да ги интересува дали ще извадят 150 000 или 250 000 поне така беше според пресата. Сега изведнъж София стана "нещо различно" и цени от 2000Е/м2 са нормални за семейство с доход от 1500 лв/месечно. А недай си боже да имат дете/деца и майката да не може да работи, а и памперси да трябват.

[zlodeia]

За Банско съм съгласен, за морето също.Само .че София е нещо различно не забравяйте! Аз лично смятам , че ще има застой, но пък чак сривове и размирици...... Дайте да си говорим нормални неща а не измислици...

[bigswingingdick]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119299930996266229.html

Europe Feels Pinch As Housing Boom Slows
By JOELLEN PERRY in Frankfurt and KEITH JOHNSON in Madrid
October 22, 2007; Page A3

The real-estate slowdown that hit the U.S. is spreading to Europe.

Home prices in some of Europe's hottest markets are falling after a decade of double-digit-percentage increases. The reasons resemble those across the Atlantic: higher interest rates, faltering confidence and tighter lending standards.

"A year ago it was all, 'no problem,' but now they're making us jump through hoops," said Iciar Caro, a 29-year-old school psychologist in Spain who can't find a bank to give her a mortgage on a ?236,000 ($337,000) house in a northern suburb of Madrid.
[Rising More Slowly]

Home prices in Spain more than doubled over the past 10 years, but the average price of an existing home has fallen slightly since July, according to real-estate agent facilisimo.com. France experienced its first quarterly home-price decline in almost a decade in the third quarter, according to its federation of real-estate agents, while Irish house prices in August were 1.9% below the year-earlier level.

The weakening home market could hit European economies. An expanding construction industry has fueled growth in Europe. Now, construction in Spain and elsewhere is easing. Also, some people said higher payments on their mortgages are cutting into their ability to spend.

The housing boom was a global phenomenon, affecting virtually every developed country outside of Japan during the past 10 to 15 years. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is among those who argue that a period of sustained low interest rates and quiescent inflation world-wide after the Soviet Union's collapse encouraged a rush into housing.

Low interest rates were a potent stimulant in Spain, which experienced one of the biggest housing booms in Europe. The European Central Bank, mindful of slowly expanding, big economies on the Continent, kept interest rates low for much of the first part of the decade -- often lower than the rate of inflation in Spain. That encouraged Spaniards to borrow money.

Last year, Spanish families on average paid six times their annual salary to buy a home, compared with 3Ѕ times salary in the late 1990s, according to the Bank of Spain, the central bank. Immigration and an influx of wealthy tourists scooping up coastal property fueled skyrocketing prices.

Construction accounts for about 10% of Spain's annual output, compared with about 7% in the U.S. Last year, 726,000 new homes were built in Spain -- more than France, Germany and Britain combined, even though those three countries together have more than five times as many people. Housing helped push Spain's economic growth to 3.9% last year, its fastest rate since 2000.

But the energy is fading. The Bank of Spain said new-housing permits fell 38% in July from the year-earlier period, the latest figures available, after falling more than 20% in May and June. Spanish central bank Gov. Miguel Бngel Fernбndez Ordусez warned this month that the credit crunch and the housing slowdown would affect consumer spending next year. Car sales and consumer confidence already are turning south.

Rising interest rates headline the front pages of Spanish dailies, which update monthly mortgage-payment increases. Some 95% of Spanish mortgage holders have variable-rate loans.

The orange-and-black Se Vende, or for sale, signs that used to appear briefly on balconies of apartments for sale in Madrid now linger for weeks and months. At the same time, as the resale market softens, more Se Alquila, or for rent, signs are popping up in a country where renting has traditionally been a last resort.

Tomas Gonzalez, a 33-year-old translator, bought a spacious, three-bedroom apartment in downtown Madrid last fall, with help from his in-laws. He and his wife, a free-lance audiovisual producer, felt monthly payments of ?800 on a 35-year, ?200,000 loan were manageable. Now, the payments have risen ?200 a month after the European Central Bank's gradual lifting of interest rates, which it began in 2005. Plus, the Gonzalezes fear their home is worth less than they paid for it. One set of neighbors have repeatedly cut the price of their home in a yearlong effort to sell.

Mr. Gonzalez has stopped eating out and curtailed his purchases of books and music. "We are trying to save something for the lean times ahead," he said.

On the consumer front, the euro zone has one difference from the U.S. that may soften the effects of flattening home prices. American consumers have used home-equity loans to turn the rising value of their homes into cash that can be spent on big-ticket items. In the 13 countries that share the euro, home-equity loans are rare. And Europe doesn't have a subprime sector comparable with the one in the U.S.

Ms. Caro, the psychologist, has signed a contract for a 600-square-foot house under construction in a northern Madrid suburb, where she hopes to live with her boyfriend. In Spain, buyers sometimes make a down payment gradually by putting in a little money each month. Ms. Caro has been doing so for 18 months, and she had hoped to pick up the keys in November.

Now, that hope may be dashed if she can't find a mortgage, or if the interest rate on a mortgage is too high. Ms. Caro has cut back her spending on vacations and clothes, and recently she began teaching private classes in the evenings to earn extra cash. She said she has stopped following interest rates "or I will go crazy."

In the third quarter, 22% of banks surveyed by the European Central Bank reported that they were tightening standards for mortgages, with 10% easing and the rest unchanged. Banks that raised the bar cited deteriorating bank balance sheets and weaker housing-market prospects.

"The ECB had already been raising rates to cool things down, and it was having an effect," said Ken Wattret, an economist with BNP Paribas SA in London. "Now, you've got this credit crunch on top of it, which could not only restrict households' access to funding but also slow the housing market more sharply."

In Ireland -- where economic growth, an influx of immigrants and low interest rates helped quadruple house prices over the last decade -- the boom also may be ending. Falling house prices will push construction of new units down to 60,000 in 2008 from last year's record 88,219, according to a recent study commissioned by Ireland's environment ministry.

Construction accounts for some 13% of Irish jobs, and the slowdown prompted the Economic and Social Research Institute in Dublin to reduce its forecast of Irish gross-domestic-product growth next year to 2.7% from 3.7%. David Duffy, a senior researcher at the institute, said: "It would still be a good growth outturn in a European context."

Some European countries experienced less of a housing boom and are feeling less of a hangover now. In Germany, the largest economy in Europe, a preference for renting has kept house-price growth limited. In an interview last week, German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrьck listed cities, including London and New York, where he believes there might be a property bubble, and then added pointedly: "Not in Berlin."

In France, government regulation has limited construction, so French houses still are in short supply, unlike in Spain and Ireland. Also, the majority of French mortgages carry a fixed interest rate, meaning homeowners are less sensitive to rate increases. That is why economists expect any slowdown in French home prices to be gradual.

The variations across Europe complicate the ECB's rate-setting decisions. Earlier in the decade, its low interest rates were suitable for slowly expanding countries but helped foment the housing boom in high-inflation, high-growth countries. Now it is keeping rates higher, which may not be ideal for all 13 countries that use the euro. ECB officials have stressed that inflationary threats are likely to prevent them from cutting the bank's benchmark 4% rate soon.

During the boom, Spain and Ireland "needed higher interest rates, but the ECB was setting policy for France and Germany," said Desmond Lachman, an economist with the conservative American Enterprise Institute in Washington. "Now, when these countries need lower rates to offset the bust, they're not going to get them."

[karakondjul]

Пепи, еврото като удари 1.50 или 2.00 долара и цените във България ще има потенциал да коригират повече от любимото 61.8% ) за съжаление на всички, да добавя...

Караконджул , като начало 50 % корекция на БАЛОНЕРСКИТЕ цени

на НИ в BG, a пък после ще му мислим..............:-)))))))))))

Я кажи какво става с цените във Франция? ;-))

Във Франция гледат какво се случва в Щатите и много ги е шубе от срив, затова основно медиите се опитват да манипулират пазара, да подтикват хората към все по-високи кредити, но цените продължават да издишат.

Наемите, за тези на които им се мести всеки 3 месеца падат сигурно надолу, моят съсед дава под наем огромен апартамент с невероятна гледка от 9 месеца и нищо... Причината е че за за 1000 евро вече има къщи...

Тук където живея една къщурка е 600 евро, но се случва да чакат месеци и се налага да менят цената.
http://www.seloger.com/detail.htm?ci..._QRYpg=1#photo

Иначе, 120 м2 вила, в моето селце, с гаражи, и с 1.5 декара терен е 1500 евро.

http://www.seloger.com/detail.htm?ci..._QRYpg=4#photo

[VS]

Продължаваме да чакаме гуруто на СРРИва да ни информира и за основната лихва в Албания и Мадагаскар. И как тя ще срине имотите у нас.
Не че досега Караконджул е познал дори в едно нещо, ама карай да е весело...

Междувременно не само цените средно в еврозоната продължиха да растат и тази година - и у нас болезнените новини за сривльовците продължават: http://forum.investor.bg/viewtopic.php?t=5928&r=6283

Явно предлагането наистина било по-слабо от търсенето, щом цените си растат. Няма по-велик от пазара!

[Пепи]

Пепи, еврото като удари 1.50 или 2.00 долара и цените във България ще има потенциал да коригират повече от любимото 61.8% ) за съжаление на всички, да добавя...

Караконджул , като начало 50 % корекция на БАЛОНЕРСКИТЕ цени

на НИ в BG, a пък после ще му мислим..............:-)))))))))))

Я кажи какво става с цените във Франция? ;-))

[karakondjul]

Фед на помощ на Barclays и RBS с 30 милиарда долара. Кредитната криза дотук - само върха на айсберга!

Barclays and RBS line up Fed for Ј15bn

Barclays and Royal Bank of Scotland have lined up emergency funds of up to $30bn (Ј15bn) from the US Federal Reserve to bail out American clients caught up in the global credit crunch.
The Fed's board of governors wrote to both banks 10 days ago, granting them access to funds for customers "in need of short-term liquidity".

The letter to RBS made particular reference to investors holding mortgage-backed securities – which have been at the centre of the sub-prime crisis.

The request from the two banks is a stark reminder that the global liquidity freeze is far from over.

It is similar to those offered to Citigroup, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase and Deutsche Bank at the height of the credit crunch.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai...1/cnfed121.xml

[karakondjul]

Пепи, еврото като удари 1.50 или 2.00 долара и цените във България ще има потенциал да коригират повече от любимото 61.8% ) за съжаление на всички, да добавя...

[Пепи]

Така, така Bouns, трябва да се бори инфлацията през следващите

години/ основен приоритет на правителството/, какви са тези

БАЛОНЕРСКИ цени на НИ, хептем се разпасаха тея АНИ-та! :-)))

Ама, на много АНИ-та ще и набият канчетата и последващ фалит......:-)))

[Bouns]

Злодей престани с тези личностни нападки с/у учителя. Първо си е оплюл целия екран, освен това като буйства много го прибират и после няма да има кой да пише в темата........ Но забележи една подробност поства какво ли не за лихвите по света но не прави бакалски прогнози........
Като цяло и аз съм на мнение че НИ ще паднат но не защото по света падат а просто у нас балона се понаду повечко

[karakondjul]

Нов рекорд на еврото на 1.4350 прави имотите в Европа смешно скъпи в сравнение с имотите в САЩ, където тенденцията на понижение в номинал се запазва.

The euro rose as high as US$1.4348 in Asian trading, breaking a previous record of US$1.4319 set on Friday. It had settled back to US$1.4326 by early morning in Europe.
The dollar has been under pressure over concerns about the health of the U.S. economy, which have encouraged speculation that the Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates again.
The European Central Bank, in contrast, has left open the option of raising its own rates.

http://english.pravda.ru/news/busine...7/99226-euro-0

[karakondjul]

за първи път разглеждам тази тема, но ми се струва, че само този караконджул пише тук- щото темата си е негова! Като че ли се прави някаква организирана масовка да се създаде суматоха, поне това което виждам изглежда така.На всички ни се иска цените да паднат малко, ама поне за София аз не виждам кога а още повече как ще паднат.

Злодея, според теб глобалната кредитна криза няма да се отрази на имотите - така ли? А това, че балонът изгърмя в Щатите и наблюдаваме пад на цените повсевместно? А за Софибора нищо не казваш - няма ли значение? Как става така, че се вдига? Защо, след като овчето стадо очакваше той да пада?

Въпроси, въпроси, все с тежки отговори. По лесно е да си заровим главите в пясъка и да възкликнем - НЯМА ДА ПАДАТ! А това, че в реални цени НИ вече падат, няма значение. Измери в хляб, петрол, пшеница или злато прехвалените Софийски НИ за да видиш колко се богатее от тях! За пред година прехвалените Банско и Слънчев Бряг вече не се говори защото темата става неудобна.

Та какво не ти харесва на темата Дискусия за балона на НИ у нас и в чужбина ? Съвсем актуална ми се струва!