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IMF revises upward Bulgaria’s expected 2019 GDP growth by 0.4pp to 3.7% | |
In its November 2019 Economic Outlook for Europe IMF has reported a slowdown in the economic activity on the back of weakness in trade and manufacturing. For most of the region, the slowdown remains externally driven. According to the report some signs of softer domestic demand have started to appear, especially in investment. On balance, Europe’s growth is projected to decline from 2.3% in 2018 to 1.4% in 2019. A modest recovery is forecast for 2020, with growth reaching 1.8%, as global trade is expected to pick up and some economies recover from past stresses. This projection, broadly unchanged from the April 2019 World Economic Outlook, masks significant differences between advanced and emerging Europe. Growth in advanced Europe has been revised down by 0.1% to 1.3% in 2019, while growth in emerging Europe has been revised up by 0.5% to 1.8%. Bulgaria’s GDP growth forecast has been revised upwards by 0.4% to 3.7% for 2019 and by 0.2% for 2020 and 2 021 to 3.2% and 3.0% respectively versus April 2019 expectations of the Fund. Source: IMF; FFBH |
Macroeconomic news and statistics | EBRD upgrades Bulgaria’s 2019 GDP growth forecast to 3.7% |
EBRD increased Bulgaria’s 2019 GDP growth forecast by 0.3pp to 3.7% and confirmed 2020 expected slow-down to 3.0% in its November Regional Prospects Report. Growth is to be supported by private consumption and investments, as the latter is accelerated towards the end of the 2014-20 EU funding period and the start of a major energy investment cycle by the government. EBRD outlined as key risks to the outlook a prolonged weakness of major trading partners, particularly that of the Eurozone, and an exacerbation of current labour shortages. In the same report the aggregate GDP growth forecast for South-Eastern Europe is increased by 0.2pp to 3.3% in 2019 mostly on private consumption and favourable developments in Greece, and kept unchanged at 3% in 2020. Source: EBRD; FFBH |
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