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Като гледам фючърсите, голяма мисъл пада. Да прескочим или да се върнем назад???? Това е въпроса. Забили са се на вчерашния Close и не мърдат. Точка напред, точка назад.
Да наистина развали ни хубавата формация.
Take a look @ this http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/F...t?obj=ID338851
особено на charta на BPCOMPQ..
Значи мисля че сега за 6-ти или 7-ми път ще "докоснем" линията от около 26.10+/-0.44$.Това може да е консолидация със завършек при 28,10 поне ,или последния дъх на последния бик..
В момента един straddle izliza 2.40 $,pri uslovie che cenata se kolebae okolo 26.55..Target pri breakout-28.10 +/- 0.40$.
Bull probability-45 %.Bearihsh-55%.Ако човек напише един страдъл на 26 все ще излезе на печалба.Макар че засега играта е "wait and see".
А докъто чакаме :short HOTT.
Happy Trading!
http://www.dividendgrowthinvestor.com/
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nikolaj
Простата техника
ama kak se e zaputil kum 1425 ) Toj ste si schupi krakata toja index be Daцi na 1420 da ne go shortnem podobavasto ili da si pazim silite. Narusghi hubavata vigura za nadolu ...
Нищо особено, Бъзикам се. Една кака си чеше езика /от вчера/.
Siebel"s Case Shows a Hole in Black-Scholes
By Ronna Abramson
Staff Reporter
11/19/2002 06:59 AM EST
Click here for more stories by Ronna Abramson
Just days after an international board recommended expensing stock options, Siebel Systems
(SEBL:Nasdaq - news - commentary - research - analysis) offered a novel example last week of how that
can become a messy proposition.
The San Mateo, Calif.-based maker of customer relationship management software said it intends to report
in a footnote of its 10-K filing at the end of the year that the estimated cost of employees" unvested options
with a strike price of $40 or more will reach up to $650 million.
That footnote, required under accounting rules,
won"t affect the company"s bottom line. Instead,
Siebel will deduct the amount of cash and
stock the company is actually paying to cash
out those same out-of-the-money options. And
that cost, which will affect its income
statement, comes to only $54.9 million -- just
one-twelfth of the $650 million charge to be
disclosed in the footnote.
So, what gives? The huge gap between the
estimated cost Siebel will disclose in a
footnote and the actual cost the company will
deduct on its income statement illustrates a
flaw of the formula used to estimate options
expenses, which is especially dramatic when
stocks swing as wildly as they have these past
couple of years. And it buttresses the case of
those companies arguing against holding them
to a model that overestimates the value of outstanding options.
"This [Siebel] really is a case study. It"s a perfect example of a major shortcoming of the Black-Scholes
model, where it doesn"t accurately depict the true expense," said Friedman Billings Ramsey analyst Daniel
Ives, referring to the formula named after economists Fischer Black and Myron Scholes to calculate option
values. Ives has a market perform rating on Siebel. His firm hasn"t done any banking business with Siebel.
Siebel"s $650 million value for the options, calculated using the Black-Scholes model, stems from an
unusual offer by the company to buy out unvested options with an exercise price of $40 or more.
Проблемите им днес дойдоха от Пенсионния фонд. Обаче пък LMT , върна нещата в изходно положение за 55 кинта на акция напред.
Чета си статии Mmaker. Явно си имат проблеми хората със определяне на цената на опциите.http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/tech.../10054858.html. Мен тва, обаче много много не ме интересува. Ефектът от всякакви новини от този род, както и днешните, пак свързани с опции е прекалено временен. Още повече, аз вече съм вън. Успех!
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