Първоначално изпратено от Misho ILIEV
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Oт апокалиптосния сайт ми даде линк търсачката.
Тоя път по бих се съгласил с голдмъните...макар че не виждам повече от 10 макс 15% даунсайд.
In other words, Goldman thinks stocks need to fall some 20% from here before the buyers come out in earnest.
Goldman’s conclusion: there will be no sustained rally until at least one of the following three things occurs: 1) Valuations become cheap; 2) The broad macro data stabilizes enough to shift up inflation expectations and/or; 3) Policy action becomes more supportive.
Put simply, number 2 isn't going to happen. At least not for the foreseeable future. Oil prices would need to rise dramatically, the global deflationary supply glut would need to moderate on the back of a sustained uptick in aggregate demand, and China would need to stop exporting deflation.
As for number 3, monetary policy can't get any more supportive. Literally. Rates are so low that the cash ban calls are rolling in and for a variety of reasons, policy makers across the globe have been reluctant to embark on massive fiscal stimulus programs.
Finally, as for number 1, either earnings would need to rise or else stocks need to fall. Considering the fact that the world looks very likely to careen into recession just as primary market appettite for the bond deals that are fueling bottom line-inflating buybacks dissipates, we know which alternative seems more likely to us.
Goldman’s conclusion: there will be no sustained rally until at least one of the following three things occurs: 1) Valuations become cheap; 2) The broad macro data stabilizes enough to shift up inflation expectations and/or; 3) Policy action becomes more supportive.
Put simply, number 2 isn't going to happen. At least not for the foreseeable future. Oil prices would need to rise dramatically, the global deflationary supply glut would need to moderate on the back of a sustained uptick in aggregate demand, and China would need to stop exporting deflation.
As for number 3, monetary policy can't get any more supportive. Literally. Rates are so low that the cash ban calls are rolling in and for a variety of reasons, policy makers across the globe have been reluctant to embark on massive fiscal stimulus programs.
Finally, as for number 1, either earnings would need to rise or else stocks need to fall. Considering the fact that the world looks very likely to careen into recession just as primary market appettite for the bond deals that are fueling bottom line-inflating buybacks dissipates, we know which alternative seems more likely to us.
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