NYSE

[anon6706]

These are not short-term bets I post normally, but 6 to 12 months

I am short NZD, BRL (this is a leverage bet on China).

Short Glencore, Fortescue, Alcoa,BHP, Noble Group

Short BMW, Baidu

От индивидуални акции не разбирам, но не съм съгласен с късите NZD. От тези нива той ще расте средносрочно дори и срещу долара. Някъде поне 5-6% от сегашните нива. Бих си променил мнението, ако NZD/USD падне под 0.62.
BRL ми е прекалено волатилен и не го играя.

Но разбирам, че очакваш твърдо приземяване в Китай.
Мерси и пак успех!

[Vomma]

И един последен въпрос:
Китай - твърдо или меко приземяване и в момента как отиграваш твоя вариант. Естествено, ако не струва пари тази информация. Само намекни.

These are not short-term bets I post normally, but 6 to 12 months

I am short NZD, BRL (this is a leverage bet on China).

Short Glencore, Fortescue, Alcoa,BHP, Noble Group

Short BMW, Baidu

[anon6706]

i agree, however, i cheer success and respect people who are able to deliver. and success is nothing bad unless you are not able to recognize it.

good luck to you as well

И един последен въпрос:
Китай - твърдо или меко приземяване и в момента как отиграваш твоя вариант. Естествено, ако не струва пари тази информация. Само намекни.

[Vomma]

Рано или късно Пазарът смирява всеки, бил той робот или човек.

Успех!

i agree, however, i cheer success and respect people who are able to deliver. and success is nothing bad unless you are not able to recognize it.

good luck to you as well

[anon6706]

look: your answer shows a bad attitude. you need to give credit when credit is due.
there is one universal alphabet and that are the numbers. As my prof used to say: more money is better than less money. so say thank you and go back to your mundane work

Рано или късно Пазарът смирява всеки, бил той робот или човек.

Успех!

[Vomma]

Еххх, и аз колко неща съм си мислел през годините и те са ставали впоследствие, но общо взето това не е печеливша стратегия. Трябва самият Пазар да "прегърне" идеята, за да печелиш. Разликата е в това, че ти ще знаеш защо става нещо, а другите ще гадаят. Което е много полезно, защото и ще знаеш кога да излезеш от позиция.

Предпочитам да пропусна 20-30, че дори и 50% от движението, но да хвана поне 20% от него с по-голям лост, но и с по-голяма увереност, отколкото да откривам няколко месеца предварително позиции но които да им треперя и след това да се бия като теб в гърдите: "Аз казах ли ви!"

Но ще мине време и ще разбереш тези неща, може и да е след като научиш азбуката ни, но все е нещо.

look: your answer shows a bad attitude. you need to give credit when credit is due.
there is one universal alphabet and that are the numbers. As my prof used to say: more money is better than less money. so say thank you and go back to your mundane work

[anon6706]

all good Anon, but old. I have posted the conclusion in June already and people were laughing. This time gap is worth lot of money. The art is to come to these long before the people start writing about it.

Еххх, и аз колко неща съм си мислел през годините и те са ставали впоследствие, но общо взето това не е печеливша стратегия. Трябва самият Пазар да "прегърне" идеята, за да печелиш. Разликата е в това, че ти ще знаеш защо става нещо, а другите ще гадаят. Което е много полезно, защото и ще знаеш кога да излезеш от позиция.

Предпочитам да пропусна 20-30, че дори и 50% от движението, но да хвана поне 20% от него с по-голям лост, но и с по-голяма увереност, отколкото да откривам няколко месеца предварително позиции но които да им треперя и след това да се бия като теб в гърдите: "Аз казах ли ви!"

Но ще мине време и ще разбереш тези неща, може и да е след като научиш азбуката ни, но все е нещо.

[Vomma]

ОК, ама там ще се търси лична отговорност предполагам, а не на VW.

class action agains VW, and separately board members

[Misho ILIEV]

no, the current scandal was known to Winterkorn before IAA. Actually, it was known inside the company months ago. However, he had the motivation not the reveal before that because

a) IAA is very important
b) his contract extension was negotiated


So VW has violated the rules for disclosure of information. German will concentrate on the eco shit, but in US this will be SEC one as well. I expect investors to follow suit.

ОК, ама там ще се търси лична отговорност предполагам, а не на VW.

[Vomma]

Би трябвало доста да те притеснява, а и доста нисколихвени долари са инвестирани (по-скоро взети назаем!!!) в тези според теб "смешни" икономики.

Ето ти откъси от една по-дълга статия, с която не възнамерявам да товаря форума излишно в пълния й размер:

A growing number of investors like Mr. Hart have concluded that a dollar that strengthens with the United States economy will have a devastating effect not only on China but on emerging markets in general. Their view is that the trillions of dollars that chased risky investment opportunities in China, Brazil, Turkey and other countries are swiftly exiting and that the pace will pick up when the Federal Reserve eventually raises interest rates.

The result, they say, will be plunging currencies, corporate defaults and a sustained growth slowdown over the next few years. This week, emerging-market currencies continued their decline, led by Brazil, Turkey, Mexico and South Africa.

In the first quarter of this year, $109 billion left Chinese banks for overseas institutions, according to the Bank for International Settlements, a clearinghouse for global central banks.
---------------------------------
China: And the investors further think that the country’s $3.5 trillion in foreign exchange reserves – down from $4 trillion a year ago – will not be enough to prevent a large-scale currency rout.


China has been at the forefront of this so-called carry trade, in which corporations and countries tap dollar-based lenders and then invest the proceeds in higher-yielding assets denominated in local currencies, such as real estate, commodities and large-scale investments.
As long as interest rates in the United States remain low and emerging-market currencies remain strong, these trades have been highly profitable. But as rates in the United States increase and the values of local currencies plunge, these profits evaporate, causing investors to flee – as they have in countries like Turkey, Brazil and South Africa.

Mr. Hart calculates that the size of the Chinese carry trade is around $2 trillion, by far the highest figure for any emerging-market borrower. And his view from the beginning has been that the dollars that have flowed into China – financing an investment rate of 50 percent of the overall economy – must eventually flow out again.
“It is the greatest carry trade in modern history,” Mr. Hart said. “There is nothing that is even close.”

---------------------
According to a recent paper by economists at Prudential’s bond division, China’s foreign currency reserve ratio – in effect its net cash position available to defend against speculators – is just a bit over 20 percent, putting it in the neighborhood of countries known to be vulnerable to capital outflows, like Brazil, Turkey and South Africa.
---------------------
According to Tim Lee of Pi Economics, a research firm based in Greenwich, Conn., emerging-market borrowers have accumulated $3 trillion in cheap dollar-based loans in the last decade of extra-loose central bank policies.

Нещата вървят от лошо към по-лошо......., особено ако ФЕД вдигне лихвата, макар и само с 25 пункта.

all good Anon, but old. I have posted the conclusion in June already and people were laughing. This time gap is worth lot of money. The art is to come to these long before the people start writing about it.

[Vomma]

За кой инсайдър трейдиг става дума? Опита на Porche да купи VW през 2008 ли?

http://www.newsweek.com/porsche-raid...germany-215764

no, the current scandal was known to Winterkorn before IAA. Actually, it was known inside the company months ago. However, he had the motivation not the reveal before that because

a) IAA is very important
b) his contract extension was negotiated


So VW has violated the rules for disclosure of information. German will concentrate on the eco shit, but in US this will be SEC one as well. I expect investors to follow suit.

[Misho ILIEV]

By the way: no single word about that vw has breached its compliance duties and effectively was involved in insider trading or at least it has promoted it. This will have far reaching consequences, especially in us. CDS spread is now like BB. I expect downgrades and prefer proxy investment through their shareholder Porsche

За кой инсайдър трейдинг става дума? Опита на Porche да купи VW през 2008 ли?

http://www.newsweek.com/porsche-raid...germany-215764

[Vomma]

Заслужава си да се хвърли едно око на изявлението на Fitch. VW имат много силини страни (извадките по-долу), но дори и слабите може да се окажат плюс за инвеститорите. Групата има нужда да съкрати работната ръка (доста по-неефективнти са конкурентите си) и да подобри корпоративното управление. Този скандал най-вероятно ще ги постави под натиск да подобрят ефективността (а те имат значителен мегдан за това, особено в сравнение с останалите автомобилостроители).

Fitch:

We believe that VW's credit metrics are solid for the ratings and that the group could absorb several billions euros of extraordinary cash outflow without jeopardising its credit profile. However, we expect VW's brand image and reputation with regulators and consumers worldwide to be seriously undermined by this crisis although the magnitude and length of the operational and financial effect is difficult to assess. In particular, the extent of the contagion of the crisis in the US on customers in other markets is unclear and therefore it is difficult to quantify the potential loss on revenue and profitability over the next two to three years.

...

However, the group's financial structure is sound and its free cash flow (FCF) generation extremely robust. We expect VW to generate about EUR3.5bn in FCF in 2015 after EUR2.3bn of dividends, and about EUR5bn a year after dividends in 2016 and 2017, excluding any impact from the current crisis. The group should also receive EUR5bn-EUR5.5bn from the sale of its stakes in Lease Plan and Suzuki. We also believe VW could reduce capex in the foreseeable future to bolster FCF.

...

Strong Business Profile
The ratings reflect the group's unparalleled product portfolio in the auto and heavy-truck segments. They also reflect VW's broad diversification, leading market shares and an unrivalled potential for cost savings and economies of scale.

...

LIQUIDITY AND DEBT STRUCTURE
The group maintains a solid net cash position, backed by ample liquidity. Gross cash and equivalents and marketable securities for the industrial business were EUR20.6bn at end-2014 after adjustments for restricted and not fully liquid cash and securities. In addition, the group issued EUR2bn of preferred shares in 2014 to refinance the purchase of Scania shares and hybrid notes of EUR2bn in 2013, EUR3bn in 2014 and EUR2.5bn in 1Q15.


https://www.fitchratings.com/site/fi...15Sep25-_-0000

By the way: no single word about that vw has breached its compliance duties and effectively was involved in insider trading or at least it has promoted it. This will have far reaching consequences, especially in us. CDS spread is now like BB. I expect downgrades and prefer proxy investment through their shareholder Porsche

[Vomma]

Апропо - как според вас ще се отразят изборите в Каталуня на пазарите утре? Защо никой не обръща внимание на? Според мен това е немаловажно така да се каже.

Na ja, ich hoffe, dass Dax dies verkraften wird. Aber ibex ist ein short wert .

[Императорът]

Апропо - как според вас ще се отразят изборите в Каталуня на пазарите утре? Защо никой не обръща внимание на? Според мен това е немаловажно така да се каже.