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Disparity in Growth Rates:
A 15% annual growth rate in housing significantly outpaces the overall economic growth of 2%. Such a large disparity suggests that the housing market might be driven by factors other than fundamental economic growth, such as speculative investment, loose credit conditions, or external demand.
Income Growth and Affordability:
If GDP growth is only 2%, household income growth is likely to be modest. A 15% increase in housing prices would outpace income growth, leading to affordability issues. Over time, this can reduce demand and strain the housing market.
Debt Levels and Credit Risk:
Rapid housing price growth often correlates with increased borrowing. If credit standards are relaxed to fuel this growth, it could lead to higher household debt levels and increase systemic risk in the financial system.
Supply and Demand Dynamics:
If the housing market growth is driven by supply constraints (e.g., lack of new housing development), prices may rise unsustainably until supply catches up. Conversely, speculative demand or foreign investment can create bubbles.
Economic Fundamentals:
For housing market growth to be sustainable, it should align more closely with underlying economic and demographic fundamentals, such as population growth, job creation, and wage increases.
Тази тема може да се дъвче до безкрай, но някои факти те карат да се замислиш дали купуването на второ, трето и т.н.т. жилище е инвестиция в момента.
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