Първоначално изпратено от zaho
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боби,Първоначално изпратено от Bobi75
требе да знае народа , че веселбата свършва се вече.
Я така мислим,
ей глей сега - да вземем за пример бензина
1 година време дай да видим колко се покачи бе тва черно злато:
примерно Е95Н
HPR %= (2.20-1.80)/1.80= 22.22% ,
е па бая си на акъла за една година не е лошо 22,22%
Ти как я видиш 2008 - розава ли е?Коментар
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Bobi, ne im se vruzvai na tia.Първоначално изпратено от Bobi75
mislja 4e sled tazi korekcia 6te izleznem vsi4ki
s nervi-korabni vujeta :-)Коментар
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Хераклитус, не ви ли писна вече на сривльовците?!
Пардон за думата, но вече се натрапва от поведението ви. Да, има кредитна криза и ще има и други такива и то най-неочаквани за теб.
Имам чуството, че ако стане политическа криза и се очаква чужда държава да нахлуе в България, и че очаква да изнасилват и жените и мъжете, включително да има опасност и за теб, то пак ще се кефиш на кризата и колко прав си бил да я предвиждаш.....Коментар
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FYI.
--It's like capitalism has gone in for an oil change. Bank of America is considering an offer for America's largest mortgage-lender, Countrywide. Countrywide has lost billions in market value this year and teeters on the edge of disaster. But its stock was up 50% today, from just above $5 to $7.75 by the time traders where through with it.
--And if you think the markets will benefit from even more money pumped in to save the financial stocks, there's more good news. That old inflation hawk Ben Bernanke, the man in charge of maintaining the soundness of American money, reassured investors he'd print more money to make things better.
--"In light of recent changes in the outlook for and the risks to growth, additional policy easing may be necessary," Bernanke said in a speech in Washington D.C. And it won't be just any easing. "We stand ready to take substantive additional action as needed to support growth and to provide adequate insurance against downside risks."
--What the hell does that mean?
--How about a new "New Deal?" That's what Ambrose Evans-Prithchard suggested yesterday in the Telegraph. Bernanke is just the dull tip of a long policy spear-a spear in hands of the President's Working Group on Financial markets, otherwise known as the Plunge Protection Team.
--This is the small group of Washington policy markers that have a vague mandate to monitor financial markets in times of crisis. What exactly they can do to avert the crisis is a matter of speculation. Some investors believe the PPT buys S&P futures in the morning when in wants the market to go up. You can think of them as a stock buyer of last resort in the way the Fed is the lender of last resort.
--"Bears beware," Pritchard declares. "The New Deal of 2008 is in the works. The US Treasury is about to shower households with rebate cheques to head off a full-blown slump, and save the Bush presidency. On Friday, Mr Bush convened the so-called Plunge Protection Team for its first known meeting in the Oval Office. The black arts unit - officially the President's Working Group on Financial Markets - was created after the 1987 crash."
--Hmmn. The trouble is banks are hoarding money. Worse than that really. Some banks are begging for money. The Wall Street Journal reported this morning that both Citigroup and Merrill Lynch are again in talks with investors in the Middle East for another cash infusion. Merrill is in the market for about US$4 billion, while Citi is looking for a more substantial US$10-11 billion.
--This is what we meant by an oil change. The more correct name is recapitalization. Some of America's biggest investment banks and lenders have gone from lending capital to investors and businesses…to borrowing it and transferring ownership to foreign governments.
--Are today's developments from American enough to reverse the local malaise? It worked for the Dow, which ended the day up 117 points. And it may well do wonders for stocks for awhile. But if you're thrill seeking, there are lower risk ways to get better thrills that put your trust in the world's central bankers.
--Gold hit a new record in the spot market in New York, trading at $895.Коментар
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FYI.
............
The Financial Times explains why gold rises:
"The arguments for further gains in the gold price are compelling. It looks cheap, despite climbing from a low of about $250 a troy ounce in 1999, when central banks were selling reserves. The UK's decision back then to sell 60 per cent of its official holdings looks particularly poor judgment.
"But it is the relationship between the dollar and the reaction of the world's central banks to the credit squeeze that some bulls would say really makes gold an attractive bet.
"The US Federal Reserve's aggressive, rate-cutting response to the credit squeeze has created a risk of a sharp rise in American inflation. That in turn creates the risk of a precipitous fall in the dollar and so makes gold more attractive as a hedge.
"The world's major economies have experienced rapid money supply growth of 10 per cent plus per annum in recent years. The Fed remains the world's biggest holder of gold, yet supplies of the metal are growing at only 1.5 per cent a year. If gold is a finite currency, its value against not just the dollar, but sterling and the euro too, should rise.
"Moreover, a sharp decline in US real interest rates - financial markets expect another half percentage point cut this month - means that the low yield on gold matters less. It may have been a poor hedge against inflation in the past but the combination of rising consumer prices and economic stagnation may make it a better store of value."
The FT goes on to say, "Gold is new global currency."
Elsewhere in the news, the price of oil rose $2 - ending a few days of downward movement. You may be tempted to see this as the triumph of the forces of inflation. But that would be far too simple. This is a battle of the Titans - inflation vs. deflation...free markets vs. government manipulators...boom vs. correction.
And guess what? We can tell you how it will end - at least in broad outline: The Titans are going to get together and destroy the U.S. economy. Inflation will reduce Americans' purchasing power. Deflation will collapse the value of their assets. Between the anvil of falling prices...and the hammer of rising ones - the American middle class is going to get smashed.
While inflation was boosting up the price of gold, deflation was playing hell with the rest of the economy.
KB - one of the largest builders - reported a loss of $773 million. And the National Association of REALTORS said it had been too optimistic previously. Remember, a few months ago...the NAR said that the "worst was over" when property prices were down just 2%. And then, U.S. Treasury Secretary Paulson came out and said the subprime credit problem was "contained." This week, both of them changed their tunes.
The NAR said housing prices were already down 5.2%. The last three months were the worst so far - with prices falling 1.7% in the quarter - the worst quarter for residential property in 21 years. And now the experts are saying that weak sales will drive down prices in the first part of 2008...with no rebound until, maybe, 2009.
Paulson now says a correction is "inevitable." As to the problems in the credit market, he adds that there is "no easy answer."
He must have been reading the Financial Times , which reports that a recession "has arrived" in the United States, citing a study from Merrill Lynch.
Naturally, the Fed did as expected. Rather than fight inflation, it turned its guns on deflation, cutting the signal rate by another quarter of a point, to 4.25%. The feds regard a Sushi Slump - a Japan-like recession - as the Greatest Of All Dangers. They want to avoid it in the worst possible way - by destroying the dollar . Gold, so far is just reacting...trying to keep up with declines in the U.S. currency.
But dear readers should get prepared for the next stage - when speculators turn to gold. So far, the price of the yellow metal has only returned to the nominal level it hit back in 1980. 28 years ago, it rose briefly to $850. But a lot of cash, credit, and debt and dubious financial instruments have gone under the bridge in the last quarter century. If gold had merely kept up with consumer inflation...that $850 an ounce would have had to run up to $2,200 an ounce.
So far, gold has only mirrored the decline of the dollar. The buck falls...gold rises . Since the feds are so intent on seeing the dollar go down further - in their efforts to fight the Sushi Slump - it is likely to go down much further.
But that's not all. Pretty soon, speculators are going to start buying gold because they think it has some magic of its own. They're going to start believing that they can get rich by owning gold...and they're probably going to drive the price up beyond $2,000 .Коментар
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"Към момента, все още малко хора осъзнават, че проблема с петрола не е в неговата липса, а в липсата на инвестиции за проучване, добив, транспорт и съхранение на петролПървоначално изпратено от rebound"5. The price of oil goes down early in the year (to $80 a barrel) and up again later, rising to $115 a barrel in the second half of 2008."
Много консервативна прогноза – все пак прогнозата за цената на петрола е много чувствителна тема, понеже касае всички и определено създава напрежение
)), в която според мен, не е отчетен геополитическия риск, който постоянно ни напомня за себе си, в районите където се добива петрол – убийството на Буто в Пакистан, напрежение в Нигерия, и Бог знае, какво още може да се случи ) Към момента, все още малко хора осъзнават, че проблема с петрола не е в неговата липса, а в липсата на инвестиции за проучване, добив, транспорт и съхранение на петрол ))[/quote] "- Преди няколко десетилетия строежите на заводи,язовири и други обекти с бавна възвръщаемост са се гарантирали срещу инфлация с плащане в физическо злато 30 или 50% при пускане на завода от "шеф монтажник" Предполагам че за голями обекти (рафинериите за суров петрол,АЕЦ,сериозно оръжие?),това ще е решение в скоро време
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FYI.
Developing Countries To Cushion Rich-Country Slowdown In 2008
Available in: Tьrkзe, 中文, Franзais, Espaсol, Deutsch, العربية
Press Release No:2008/179/DEC
Contacts
In Washington: Merrell Tuck, tel. (202) 473-9516; Mob: (202) 415 1775
mtuckprimdahl@worldbank.org
In London: Derek Warren, mob. + 44 7932 607469
LONDON, January 9, 2008 – Resilience in developing economies is cushioning the current slowdown in the United States, with real GDP growth for developing countries expected to ease to 7.1 percent in 2008, while high-income countries are predicted to grow by a modest 2.2 percent, says the World Bank.
Global Economic Prospects 2008 (GEP 2008) notes that world growth slowed modestly in 2007 to 3.6 percent compared with 3.9 percent in 2006, a downturn due largely to weaker growth in high-income countries. In 2008 global growth is expected to be 3.3 percent.
A weaker US dollar, the specter of an American recession and rising financial-market volatility could cast a shadow over this soft landing scenario for the global economy. These risks would cut export revenues and capital inflows for developing countries, and reduce the value of their dollar-investments abroad. In this context, the reserves and other buffers that developing countries have built up in past years may be needed to absorb unexpected shocks.
“Overall, we expect developing-country growth to moderate only somewhat over the next two years. However, a much sharper United States slowdown is a real risk that could weaken medium-term prospects in developing countries,” said Uri Dadush, Director of the World Bank’s Development Prospects Group and International Trade Department.
The report’s authors assume that credit turmoil in international markets will persist into late 2008, but that costs to large financial institutions will remain manageable. Moreover, they predict that spillover from problems in the US housing market on consumer demand will remain limited.
“Looking at trade, strong import demand across the developing countries is helping to sustain global growth. As a result and given a cheaper US dollar, American exports are expanding rapidly. This is helping shrink the U.S. current account deficit and is contributing to a decline in global imbalances,” said Hans Timmer, co-author and Manager of the Global Trends team in the Bank’s Development Prospects Group.
Recent robust developing country growth has contributed to high commodity prices, notably for oil, metals and minerals. These have benefitted many commodity exporters, thus explaining the strength of demand growth in some poorer countries. However, the recent increase in grain prices – partly due to increased grain production for biofuels – is hurting real incomes among the urban poor.
GEP 2008 also argues that more prudent macroeconomic management and technological progress have helped increase total factor productivity and real income growth in developing countries over the past 15 years, a trend expected to help reduce poverty in the next decade. The special theme of GEP 2008 is technology diffusion in developing countries (see related news release).
Developing country highlights
In the first half of 2007, industrial production sped up across the developing regions, notably in East Asia (20%, year over year). Robust production data are also reflected in GDP results. China, India, and Russia were instrumental in driving up output.
GDP in East Asia and the Pacific is expected to grow about 10 % in 2007, with China expected to grow by more than 11%. Growth for the region should ease to 9.7 % in 2008 and to 9.6 % by 2009. The effects from the turmoil in the world’s financial centers may be small in most economies in the Region. Except for China, direct exposures of financial institutions in the region to mortgage-based securities (or sub-prime crisis) are limited.
GDP in Europe and Central Asia is expected to grow by 6.7 % in 2007, and then slow to 6.1 % in 2008 and 5.7 % in 2009. Inflation has risen in several countries, tied to sustained strong domestic demand and rising food and fuel prices (made worse by drought in Bulgaria and Romania). Signs of overheating are evident in Bulgaria and the Baltic states. In Turkey, an easing of monetary policy is expected to strengthen domestic demand, leading to a pickup in growth, and a continued large current account deficit.
GDP in Latin America and the Caribbean advanced by 5.1 % in 2007 and is growth expected to ease to 4.5 % in 2008 and further to 4.3 % by 2009, mainly reflecting a return to more sustainable growth rates in Argentina and Venezuela. Elsewhere, including in Brazil, growth should remains robust, while in Mexico it is expected to rebound from a weak 2007.
GDP in the Middle East and North Africa eased slightly in 2007 to 4.9 % and will likely rise with the help of high oil prices to 5.4 % in 2008. In oil-exporting countries, higher oil prices are adding to revenues, some of which are being invested infrastructure in countries like Algeria and Iran. Diversified exporters like Jordan, Morocco and Tunisia are enjoying double-digit growth, thanks to increased trade demand from Europe.
GDP growth in South Asia edged down slightly in 2007 to 8.4 %, with industrial production and GDP growth driven by strong domestic demand. An expansion of credit, rising incomes, and strong worker remittances are buoying private consumption. Meantime, improvements in business sentiment along with rising corporate profits, are providing a further boost.
GDP in Sub-Saharan Africa grew 6.1 % in 2007, and is expected to rise 6.4% in 2008, with much of the impetus coming from strong domestic demand. Investment in the region is expected to remain strong, despite the tightening of international credit conditions, due in part to large foreign-financed investments. In contrast, private demand in South Africa, where higher interest rates and an erosion of real incomes are curbing real outlays, is projected to soften. Regional growth may slip to 5.8 % by 2009 as oil exporters respond to international conditions and restrain output moderately.
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The report and related materials is available on the web at: http://www.worldbank.org/gep2008.
Interactive prospects for the global economy can be found at: http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlookКоментар
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takiteasy, Take it easy!и тоз коментар е без препоръкаКоментар
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леле малеКоментар
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съгласнаПървоначално изпратено от takiteasyКоментар
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Каквото и да е, оказва се, че нещата са твърде променливи!Коментар
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щом казвашПървоначално изпратено от takiteasy
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Така ти се струва!
;-)
Чиста греда си е!Коментар
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КАНТПървоначално изпратено от takiteasyКоментар
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