Прогнози и развитие през 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

[Jay Gould]

Re: Прогнози и развитие през 2008-ма година

SOFIX

Ще падате утре!

Утре май пак

[съни(тя)]

...Към момента, все още малко хора осъзнават, че проблема с петрола не е в неговата липса, а в липсата на инвестиции за проучване, добив, транспорт и съхранение на петрол )

по-скоро, проблемът е в ограниченият брой предлагащи го и влиянието с контрола им
нещо като солта преди векове или...маслините

к'во ли го чака и доларът - сега алтернативен съюз на Чавес, после...
ехх, таз година на мишката, дано разумът надделее)

[rebound]

"5. The price of oil goes down early in the year (to $80 a barrel) and up again later, rising to $115 a barrel in the second half of 2008."

Много консервативна прогноза – все пак прогнозата за цената на петрола е много чувствителна тема, понеже касае всички и определено създава напрежение )), в която според мен, не е отчетен геополитическия риск, който постоянно ни напомня за себе си, в районите където се добива петрол – убийството на Буто в Пакистан, напрежение в Нигерия, и Бог знае, какво още може да се случи ) Към момента, все още малко хора осъзнават, че проблема с петрола не е в неговата липса, а в липсата на инвестиции за проучване, добив, транспорт и съхранение на петрол )

[meche_cveti93]

В края на 2004 г. влязох в ДЗИ банк , РЕТ и БСТР и една година тренирах реване , а тогава борсата нямаше големи перспективи........... Сега тренирам оптимизъм .................... Има един закон на Нютон..............третия май ..............

Затова ли ревете като заклани, щом индекса ви каталяса с 1-2 % Wink

[Jay Gould]

За коя борса пишете - 10 % спечелили .. . В отминалите няколко години 90% на БФБ..

Jay Gould naistina li smiata6 4e samo 10 % ot u4astnitzi na fondovata borsa pe4eliat realno

Затова ли ревете като заклани, щом индекса ви каталяса с 1-2 %

[bigswingingdick]

More and more strategists are coming around to the idea that the economy is going to suffer a recession in 2008. One of those is Byron Wien of Pequot Capital Management, who, in his annual list of surprises to expect in the coming year, leads it off with the prediction that the U.S. economy will indeed contract in the next few quarters.
Wien
“Housing starts stay soft and banks are reluctant to lend to anyone where a whiff of risk is apparent,” he writes. “Federal funds drop below 3%. The unemployment rate moves definitively above 5% and consumer spending is lackluster.”

Overall, Mr. Wien’s list isn’t for the faint of heart. He forecasts a 10% decline in the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index, and a big jump in the inflation rate. (The summarized list is below.)

With this list, of course, it’s instructive to look back and see how Mr. Wien did for his 2007 list. It appears that he had a few of his predictions dead-on — the rise in agricultural prices, the Fed refraining from lowering rates in the spring, and Latin America doing well.

If anything, he was too conservative in a few areas, such as gold and oil, where prices rose even beyond his projections ($800 on gold and $80 a barrel on oil). On the downside, he fell short in his prediction for 1600 on the S&P, Japan’s Nikkei did not gain 15%, and S&P earnings didn’t achieve 10% growth for the year.

Here’s a quick summary of his 2008 predictions:

1. The U.S. economy suffers its first recession since 2001.
2. S&P earnings decline year-over-year, and the index falls 10%.
3. The dollar strengthens in the first half to $1.35 against the euro, but weakens in the second half.
4. Inflation rises above 5% on the CPI and 10-year yields hit 5%. Stagflation becomes a prominent topic on the campaign stump and in op-ed pieces.
5. The price of oil goes down early in the year (to $80 a barrel) and up again later, rising to $115 a barrel in the second half of 2008.
6. Agricultural commodities remain strong. Corn rises to $6.00 a bushel and cotton to 85 cents a pound, while gold reaches $1000.
7. The Chinese stock market gets hit sharply as the Chinese economy slows. China revalues the remnimbi by another 10%. (As an aside he expects several long-distance runners to beg off from the Beijing Olympics due to air quality issues.)
8. Russia’s new president, Dmitry Medvedev, becomes more assertive in world affairs, and Russia and Brazil lead the BRIC stock markets, while the Gulf Cooperation Council markets begin to attract interest among emerging market investors.
9. Infrastructure improvement will be an important election theme, bolstering construction and engineering stocks. Water supply becomes a criticial problem world-wide.
10. Barack Obama is elected president in a landslide over Mitt Romney, and the Democrats end up with 60 Senate seats and a clear majority in the House of Representatives.
11. SOFIX & BG40 crashing more than 20% in H1 and rebound slightly H2.

[Слънчев вятър]

Слънчев вятър kakvo ozna4ava tazi usmivka

Може да значи, че който може да играе, може и да печели но дали у франция има гаранция ..

[martsiano]

Слънчев вятър kakvo ozna4ava tazi usmivka

[Heraclitus]

FYI.

............


Spot gold climbed to $860.10 an ounce, and wheat and soybeans jumped more than 3 percent. The UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index gained as much as 2.2 percent today after climbing 22 percent in 2007. The dollar fell on speculation the Federal Reserve will cut borrowing costs in an attempt to bolster the U.S. economy.

``The most salient buzzword in 2008 is going to be inflation,'' said Michael Pento, senior market strategist for Delta Global Advisors Inc. in Huntington Beach, California, which manages about $1.4 billion. ``The Fed is lowering interest rates and vastly increasing the money supply. They're further fueling inflationary expectations.''

[Слънчев вятър]

[meche_cveti93]

За коя борса пишете - 10 % спечелили .. . В отминалите няколко години 90% на БФБ..

Jay Gould naistina li smiata6 4e samo 10 % ot u4astnitzi na fondovata borsa pe4eliat realno

[Jay Gould]

Jay Gould naistina li smiata6 4e samo 10 % ot u4astnitzi na fondovata borsa pe4eliat realno

Краткосрочно не (може и повече), но дългосрочно да.

[martsiano]

Jay Gould naistina li smiata6 4e samo 10 % ot u4astnitzi na fondovata borsa pe4eliat realno

[martsiano]

Qsno mersi

[Jay Gould]

Jay Gould kak e adresa na tvoia li4en blog.Mersi

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