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Както писах сутринта, картината за долара хич не е розова, направо е сиво-черна.
Колкото и голям фен да съм на гущера не смея да го купувам, и май почвам даже да го продавам лека полека.
Какво стана: кабела яко цепи нагоре, ауда също, кад също(66$ за барел), йената го утрепа направо, златото що да не направи скок от 10$ за един ден. Дотук фактите са достатъчно да убият всякакво желане за покупка на долари у мен. Интересното, е че все пак еврото също не е хит - едвам крета нагоре(сел в евро/франк и евро/паунд). Извода е - продавайте долари с/у ауд, кад, паунд/ йена и най-кротко с/у евро.
Не купувайте кабел сега ще има по-добри нива 8100 ще корегира както и при еврото 2450, това са изпълнени цели и няма как да продължи без корекция
Успехи
Купих дългосрочно 20000 единици usd/chf с цел минимум 1.2550 , но според мен ще премине 1.2600
независимо, че е възможно да падне още.
Успех на всички.
Brief Forecast - 55% Probable: Down one last time; CRITICAL 1.2502
Weekly:
AUG 4th ::::The extent and persistence of the recent advance means we may miss something in the bigger picture. A weekly close above 1.2502 is what will raise the weekly chart alternate to preferred status and point towards an already unfolding flat intermediate wave (B). Until then, one more low is theoretically required to complete wave C of (A). You will notice the MACD crossover on the weekly chart and if history is any model it means that at least a minor degree reversal has occurred below 1.20, thus making our expectations for a still unfolding wave (A) downtrend quite unrealistic. In that case, an intermediate wave (B) up will chop all the way towards 1.27-1.29, not without encountering initial resistance at 1.25-1.26 and not without proceeding for a sloppy test of the June lows before venturing in the high 1.20ies (alternation tells us that if wave (A) down was a zig-zag, which it was if it already ended at 1. 1870, wave (B) should be a flat or a triangle).
Monthly:
The "massive monthly resistance in the vicinity of 1.35" appears to hold strong for the time being. The degree of maturation of the uptrends at multiple degrees of trend recommends we carefully watch monthly trendline support (1.2500) and the orthodox bottom (the point where the wave pattern can be count complete) of the previous 4th wave (1.2221). Selling below that area will confirm that a primary wave 2 correction towards 1.02-1.07 was indeed underway. Observe the trend ending momentum pattern in the 24 months ROC (Rate-of-Change), though from a longer-term perspective the important piece of information is the strong "kick-off" experienced in 2003; it announces that the currently emerging USD bounce will be the very last chance to escape the secular USD bear that appears to have started in the summer of 2001. ----------------DEC 1st-----------------The entire advance from the july 2001 low is nearing completion. Observe the massive monthly chart resistance in the vicinity of 1.35. Downside targets start at 1.21 and stretch as far as 99 cents--------OCT22nd------The ascent off the 0.8250 low is the initial leg up in a powerful cycle degree advance. Since it is a C wave, it is worth remembering the wave personality: powerful, relentless waves with strong internal technicals and supporting economic fundamentals. From the USDollar's point of view it is a huge mess. The advance is related to the 1985-1988 ascent and 1.82 is a conservative target for the next 5-10 years. Within the initial leg up, we are in a multi month consolidation that should not carry much further than 1.0786 or 1.3396
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