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Will Europe Push the Euro Down?

Tasuki,пияната корекция беше в десетката)))
Аз купих кабел на 1.8880 стоп 1.8835 цел........ да не казвам за сега,че да не ви плаша...

Куки,нещо много изморен ми се виждаш..... дръпни "контрата" на жената

[minava6t]

Will Europe Push the Euro Down?

Will the ECB intervene again?

However, despite criticism from the corporate sector, the ECB will prefer to use threats and interest rate cuts
rather than overt intervention to stem the euro’s rise. ECB Trichet’s warning about the “brutal moves” in the
euro prompted the EURUSD to slide from 1.29 to 1.2425. We suspect the ECB’s comfort level with the euro
is between 1.25 and 1.28. Although a stronger currency hurts exports and squeezes growth, as long as inflation
remains under control, the ECB has the added flexibility of postponing overt intervention. Consumer price
inflation in January was 2%, which is right in line with the ECB’s limit. For the previous 5 months, CPI has been
above the bank’s 2% limit. A strong euro should put downward pressure on inflation, but the effects have been
muted thus far. Furthermore, for intervention to be effective, the market would need to be overextended in
some way. IMM positioning in the euro indicates that longs are not at extreme levels. Even though the EURUSD
has risen 19% since last year, it is only 8% higher than the level that it was launched at in 1999. A rise in the
euro is like tightening monetary policy, so we believe that the ECB is more likely to reduce interest rates before
intervening overtly. Inflation is expected to fall below the ECB’s limit if the euro continues to appreciate.
However, selling euros in the foreign exchange market would send a significant message to the market,
which the ECB may fear undermines the market’s confidence in the euro. Furthermore, ECB intervention
without US support would be much less effective. Japan has already expressed consent to helping the ECB
intervene if necessary, but the US’ current comfort and satisfaction with the weaker dollar makes it unlikely
that they would readily consent to buying dollars for the ECB.

Does Intervention Work? What are the Currency Implications?

The effectiveness of intervention also remains in question, as there has never been a consensus on the
effectiveness of sterilized intervention, due to the discrepancies between the methodologies used in empirica
l studies of intervention. However, according to a report by Fatum and Hutchinson (ECB Foreign Exchange
Intervention and the Euro: Institutional Framework, News and Intervention), there is evidence that intervention
in the euro affects the exchange rate in the short term. Their findings are generally consistent with a similar
pieces published by previous authors in 1993 and 1994. The report quantifies the effect of rumors and firm
reports of ECB intervention on the value of the euro. Although the report is based upon intervention in support
of the euro, which has been the only type of intervention to date, we will highlight it for benchmarking purposes.
The findings indicate that rumors of ECB intervention are associated with an immediate 0.24% move in the euro
(approx 30 pips), while firm reports of ECB intervention are associated with an immediate 0.66% move in the
euro (approx 85 pips). Overt intervention by the ECB would signal that the euro is no longer a one-way bet,
which should prompt a larger short-term move in the trading sessions following the intervention as speculators
adjust their positioning. Therefore although the ECB is not likely to intervene below 1.30, if they do, it would
certainly have a significant short-term impact on the EURUSD.

[minava6t]

Will Europe Push the Euro Down?

Previous ECB intervention

Since the launch of the euro on January 1, 1999, the ECB has only intervened four times, all in late 2000.
The EURUSD took a downward spiral in the months following the launch of the euro, prompting the ECB
to take action in concern “about the national and worldwide effects of the euro’s exchange rate, including
its consequences for price stability” (ECB press release 11/03/00). The weakness of the euro has aggravated
inflation by increasing import prices. However, the ECB was also struggling to prevent the market from losing
confidence in their new “project” (currency). Although the ECB did not release details on the magnitude of their
intervention, the Federal Reserve reported having purchased 1.5 billion euros against in the dollar on behalf of
the ECB. All bouts of intervention caught the market by surprise. Unfortunately, the success of the ECB’s
intervention was short-lived as the euro’s rise from 0.83 to 0.96 reversed course in 2001, prompting the pair
to fall back to 0.84 in July 2001. The euro did not resume its rally until post 9-11, at which time falling confidence
in the dollar and bleak outlook for the US economy dictated direction for the pair.

[minava6t]

Will Europe Push the Euro Down?

With the EURUSD approaching its all time highs around 1.29, there has been a lot of speculation as to
whether the European Central Bank (ECB) would actually intervene to sell euros against the dollar.
The strength of the euro has sparked harsh rhetoric by European exporters who consistently cite dollar
weakness as one of the primary reasons for their shortfalls in profitability.
Comments from Eurozone officials indicate their distinct discomfort with the “brutal moves” in the euro.
The influential head of the German IFO institute Hans-Werner Sinn called for the ECB to intervene in the
foreign exchange markets to curb the euro’s rise. Sinn told a German newspaper that “the guardians of the
currency could durably lower the (euro"s) rate by 10 percent by selling 30 billion euros."
However whether or not the ECB will intervene overtly still remains a question.

[Refractory]

fx

A lunata ne misli li da se poqwi ?

[kukuvicata]

fx

я fidodido пак във форума ))

[Мариян TP ЕООД]

Нов FOREX анализ

Купете USD/CHF при пробив на 1.2413

[fidodido]

fx

che koe mu beshe nelogichnoto ?

[kukuvicata]

fx

forexboy, мерси
аз много зает тези дни и нямам време да чета фори форума, правя го чак вечер
успехи ти желая!

[forexboy]

fx

Куки, приятна да е и без скандали и ядове!

[kukuvicata]

fx

Приятна вечер от мен на всички

[Varna 2]

eur/usd

Utre dano da ima poveche "logichni" dvijeniya ot dnes.

[Varna 2]

eur/usd

Sled bezobrazno ednoobrazen den, i sled kato stignah do izvoda che e po-veroyatno da zagubya malkoto pipsove pripecheleni dnes v tazi ludnica pojelavam polzotvorna turgoviya na vsichki, koito produljavat.

[margin fan]

eur/usd

ne znam kolko ot vas poseshtavat ili uchastvat v chuzdestranni forumi, no takiva lichni napadki i obidi nikade njama...javno tova e tipichno nashenska cherta - da sme nai-golemite maistori vav vsichko. Kakto bjah kazal v edin drug forum i pod drugo ime - dobre che marketa e dostatachno goljam, ta ne mozem i nego da go pobalgarim...
tolkova li ne mozete da si vzimate pipsovete i bez da si merite p*shkite??

[Varna 2]

eur/usd

Nyakoi moje li da obyasni neadekvatnoto povedenie na dvoikata. EUR/USD went crazy.