Валутна търговия - FOREX - АРХИВ

[supertrader]

на коко

Koko ostavi kriticite , takiva vinagi ima , no taia prodajba na e/$ izberi i momenta i se pazi , az lichno sam za tova $ da si varne zagybenoto i stock marketa sashto zashtoto sam se nabalbykal s akcii deto ne mise govori kak padat sega i sam pristrasten niama kak , i ne me valnyva kogo shte izberat ako shtat Ben Laden da slojat za prezident i daje i goliama depresia da ima obache samo da ima up predi tova za da se izchistia , i sled tova sam se zarekal shte spekyliram samo na Forex i to s ydovolstvie shte gybia po malko ))

[koko]

на коко

Какво ни чака тази седмица коментар на Naval Vithalani - инициатор на идеята за е1

The Markets

How much faith will statements like these instil in the US Dollar? The markets were on the edge this week as the Dow Jones declined to the lowest level for the year and quiet frankly this isn’t the end it’s only the beginning. Higher oil prices and the upcoming elections were cited as the main reasons for the declines. Crude oil prices closed above $55 for the first time ever.

10yr yields declined to 3.95% this week as the US dollar tanked, what is amazing and intriguing is that both bond yields and the US Dollar are declining. In order to compensate foreign buyers for currency losses, the US will have to offer higher interest rates.

Although we are bearish on the US Dollar, we think that in the short term profit taking is going to come into play and that it won’t be till late November – early December that we will see the US Dollar index touch 80-81 level. We may be wrong but after the recent action are of the view that a slight bounce could happen.

The Insanity

‘The improvements in lending practices driven by IT have enabled lenders to reach out to households with previously unrecognised borrowing capacity’ - Fed Reserve Chairman Mr. Greenspan. Doesn’t that mean that with the new innovations we have made sub prime loans and that of things slowdown as expected it could result in distress selling?

Mr. Greenspan was trying to play down the risk of a housing bubble, but with personal bankruptcies at record levels and the debt to income ratio in the US is running at 1.25:1 today. How long will this show go on?

In the previous week, Mr. Greenspan said that he doesn’t expect higher oil prices o slow growth like they did in the 1970s. He also added that although American household debt is at a record high, household finances appear to be in reasonably good shape. His assumptions are based on the fact that since house prices are going up, debt is always going to look manageable. But what if as expected the housing market weakens, will debt be manageable then. At the same time if equity extraction declines or house prices fall will consumer spending continue at the same pace?

Today the US economy is faced with some severe headwinds,

i. Fed Funds Rate – the Fed Reserve has effectively run out of room to manoeuvre, other than trying to talk up the economy it has limited bullets in the face of a crisis. It’s in a perfect catch 22 situation, where in if fit raises rates the economy takes a hit and if it doesn’t than inflation could rear its head.

ii. Tax cuts – tax cut innovations have nearly ended. The only innovative ting for the government to do would be to declare a tax holiday [this is a joke ok]. Taxes will have to go higher in order to keep a lid on deficits.

iii. Consumer spending – consumer spending is likely to decline in the coming months. With the record level of debt and home equity extraction there is little in the form of ‘free money’.

iv. Labour market – the labour market is already jumping hard on thin ice and it won’t be long before we see the unemployment rate tick up.

v. Bonds – the bond market is already indicating low interest rate environment in the quarters ahead. Either the bond market is telling us that something is wrong with the economy or there has been a big chunk of buying in the form of foreign central bank.

vi. Deflation – deflation continues to be a threat cause if the economy weakens deflation could be next. The only way to overcome this would be to print more dollars.

San Francisco Fed President Yellen indicated that in the intermediate run neutral fed funds rate might be lower. She seemed to indicate that there was a downside risk to the economy and come the next FOMC she might vote to hold if not cut rates. At the same time Gov. Ben ‘Printing Press’ Bernanke also gave indications that he might favour holding rates or cutting them to neutralise the impact of high oil prices. Fed Reserve Governor Susan Bies said that although oil prices have risen 82% in the pas one year, US growth is still solid and that the Fed can raise rates at a measured rate.

The US economy is running out of steam and the coming peak retail season looks like it will be a lukewarm one. Already from what I have seen here in the UK there has been a slight slowdown or maybe it’s too early to draw conclusions. However as the low interest and tax environment comes to an end the global economy is likely to face severe headwinds.

The Trade deficit for August heat a record $54bln, the US now requires close to $2.6bln every business day in the form of inflows only to keep the wheels rolling and there is a strong likelihood that the inflow requirements could touch $3.5bln a Herculean task that will no doubt create headwinds for the economy and the US Dollar.

Slowly the reality is dawning on people that the recent echo recovery is more dependent on large inflows of capital. However foreign net investment has slowed to $600mln a month way below the average inflows of $5.7bln. Another worrying factor is the decline in investor’s willingness to buy treasuries. The only reason the US Dollar hasn’t fallen off the cliff is the continued support it receives in the form of foreign central bank buying.

There is a belief that interest rates are headed up in the coming months, however with the weak jobs market can the Fed really afford raising rates.

A recent survey showed that households are expected to spend an additional $100-$250 extra on heating this winter and that the national heating bill is expected to be 29% higher this year. That means the average consumer is going to have nearly $100-250 less to spend this Christmas. How well does it bode for the upcoming retail sales season?

The economy is clearly not doing ok, if it had been than companies like GM would be making more money from selling cars instead of financing operations. GM earned nearly $656mln from its financing operations GMAC and actually lost $116mln on automobiles. GM has gone from being one big manufacturing company to a finance company.

Here’ one that should be called the story of the year, GM dealerships in Kansas City is offering a free Chevy Aveo when you pay the full price for any SUV. The great buy one get one free theme is finally moving from Wal Marts to GM dealerships. What next mate, buy one and get two free?

Delta Airlines said that it lost $646mln in Q3 and finished the quarter with only $1.5bln in cash. Rising crude oil prices are hurting the airline along with American Airlines. American Airlines is likely to layoff nearly 1100 employees in an effort to cut costs and try to save the airline.

Treasury Secretary John Snow was back in news recently when he said that the records oil prices were a drag on the US economy and that it’s creating headwinds for the US economy acting as a tax on the system.

The war in Iraq isn’t going on as it should be and the recent abduction of Mrs. Hassan and the pressure the terror groups are using on trying to influence public opinion in these countries is creating a lot of trouble for both Mr Bush and Mr. Blair. With the elections coming up in the US, things could get bloodier in Iraq, terror groups are playing the perfect propaganda operations and their intentions are clear to get both Mr. Blair and Mr. Bush out of office.

The Washington Post and New York Times have declared that they support Mr. Kerry and in all probabilities it looks like Mr. Kerry is going to win by a landslide. However what policies is he likely to follow in Iraq, on terrorist and on deficits. But one thing is for sure that even if the situation in Iraq doesn’t improve it will be seen as Mr. Bush’ fault and not Mr. Kerry’. Its going to be ‘Blame it on Dubya’ for the next four years in Washington.


The Economy

Leading economic indicators declined 0.1% in September; this was the fourth straight monthly decline indicating a coming slowdown. Initial jobless claims declined 25000 to 329000 the lowest in six weeks. The insured unemployment rate edged down to 2.2% and the continuing jobless claims declined 8000 to 2.798mln.

The Philadelphia Fed Factory Index rose to 28.5 in October from 13.4 in September. The index shows mild growth as the current activity index rose but new orders declined.

[iskam kAzvam]

на коко

аз там имам 4 победи с разни имена и не следя ама да видим...

[koko]

на коко

Приятелю демото в стс ще бъде пуснато от името на Йоана Вълкова. Сложил съм машина да копа така че спокойно ще можеш да следиш резултатите от работата на модела всеки ден.
Успех

[iskam kAzvam]

на коко

май ти доказах ут кои си...

[koko]

на коко

Аз не съм програмист приятелю аз съм земеделец на 100% интернет доставчик на 20% стъклар на 33% форекс на 25%...........

[iskam kAzvam]

на коко

много програмисти искат да станат голем коркодил - но само с доказателствва (за търговията)- на теория излиза ли и на практика става...

[koko]

на коко зарибявката

А ти приятелю що се лъжеш или не си от простолюдието. Аз не играя на реална с експерти но това не пречи да тествам. Казах че ще направя реален тест в демо играта на стс която почва след малко и продължава 10 дни.

[koko]

на коко зарибявката

А ето и какво ще играя на реал акаунта след малко.
sell eur/usd 1.2680 sl 1.2730 tp 1.2580
sel gbp/usd 1.8280 sl 1.930 tp 1.8150
b usd/jpy 107.20 sl 106.70 tp 108.50

[iskam kAzvam]

на коко зарибявката

докажи да се види кво има в програмата - ами нали всеки ще я направи с кви глупости залъгваш ич не се труди не се разбира фатката и от теб т. е. има си начини как да се схване от по умни и се демонстрира така че не лъжи простолюдието...

[koko]

на коко зарибявката

Ква зарибявка бе браточка

[iskam kAzvam]

на коко зарибявката

пък какви пари се движат по кръжоци за правила и тайни на търговия - тъпанар поумнява...

[iskam kAzvam]

на коко зарибявката

покажи поне словесно доказателство (как индикатор се движи и доказва ) примерно след 123 вълни следва 123 въли в другата посока или след фигура глава с рамене следва обръщане на посоката или други фигури ... не се притеснявай ако не можеш никой не ги е правил тия доказателства всеки си играй едно към гъотири...

[nasco 3]

expert

някой има ли идея защо като пусна тестера на някой експерт на метатрейдер след дълго мислене и движение на синьото поле за остатък до края(статус бара) не ми се появява резултата
друг има ли моя проблем или е много банален въпроса
ако може някой да помогне

[koko]

expert

Направих известни корекции и ще пусна тест на демо играта на стс. Отделих една машина само за това.
Увеличих риска на макс. И сложих рси за филтър - по принцип ползвам aroon_horn но при рискова игра не е добре.
Филтъра изглежда такаtrd=0;

for cnt=1 to TotalTrades
{
If (OrderValue(cnt,VAL_SYMBOL)= Symbol) then trd = trd+1 ;
};
If trd 1.2 and low[0] < low[1]
or low[0] < low[1]+pips and (iRSI(RSIP,0)-iRSI(RSIP,1))> 1.2 then
{
SetOrder(OP_BUY,levv,ask,Slippage,low[0]-StopLoss*point,0,Blue);
Exit;
};
if trd High[1]
or High[0] > High[1]-pips and iRSI(RSIP,0) < (iRSI(RSIP,1)-1.2) then
{
SetOrder(OP_sell,levv,bid,Slippage,High[0]+StopLoss*point,0,RED);
Exit;
};

for cnt= 1 to TotalTrades
{
if OrderValue(cnt,VAL_TYPE) = OP_BUY and OrderValue(cnt,VAL_SYMBOL)= Symbol then
{
if iRSI(RSIP,0) < (iRSI(RSIP,1)-1.2) and High[0] > High[1]
or High[0] > High[1]-pips and iRSI(RSIP,0) < (iRSI(RSIP,1)-1.2)then
{
CloseOrder(OrderValue(cnt,VAL_TICKET),OrderValue(c nt,VAL_LOTS),Ask,slippage,Green);
Exit;
};
};
if OrderValue(cnt,VAL_TYPE) = OP_SELL and OrderValue(cnt,VAL_SYMBOL)= Symbol then
{
if (iRSI(RSIP,0)-iRSI(RSIP,1))> 1.2 and low[0] < low[1]
or low[0] < low[1]+pips and (iRSI(RSIP,0)-iRSI(RSIP,1.2))> 1 then
{
CloseOrder(OrderValue(cnt,VAL_TICKET),OrderValue(c nt,VAL_LOTS),Bid,slippage,Green);
Exit;
};
};
};
for cnt=1 to TotalTrades
begin
If Ord(cnt,VAL_TYPE)=OP_BUY and OrderValue(cnt,VAL_SYMBOL)= Symbol then
{
If (Bid-Ord(cnt,VAL_OPENPRICE))>(TrailingStop*Point) then
{
If Ord(cnt,VAL_STOPLOSS)(TrailingStop*Point) then
{
If Ord(cnt,VAL_STOPLOSS)>(Ask+TrailingStop*Point) or
Ord(cnt,VAL_STOPLOSS)=0 then
{
ModifyOrder(Ord(cnt,VAL_TICKET),Ord(cnt,VAL_OPENPR ICE),
Ask+TrailingStop/1.1*Point,Ord(cnt,VAL_TAKEPROFIT),Orange);
Exit;
};
};
};
end;