If this is your first visit, be sure to
check out the FAQ by clicking the
link above. You may have to register
before you can post: click the register link above to proceed. To start viewing messages,
select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.
При положение , че не знаете обема на позицията, която искам да оформя, целите, които съм си поставил, мисля че е АБСОЛЮТНО НЕУМЕСТНО да коментирате решението ми. Иво, нива от 115 едва ли ще видим скоро, форексбой, нямам нищо против и дори се надявам да видим 108,80 и 109,30.
Искрено ви пожелавам много успехи и профити !
The JPY continues to be undermined by a host of negative
factors. The fiscal year end and accordant portfolio flows, a
6% gain in crude oil prices over the week, and a disappointing
week for Japanese data has kept the USD/JPY well above the
support at 106.75 (the 200 day moving average). In all, the
negative JPY sentiment sent the USD/JPY to year to date
highs on Friday, coinciding with spec shorts moving to the
largest net position in over a year. From a technical
perspective, the USD/JPY needs to stay below 108.30 – the
50% retracement of the 114.85-101.68 move – in order to
prevent a further rally in the near term, but we concede that the
short term dynamics are not favourable for the JPY and
accordingly, we look to buy dips to 106.50.
BNZmarkets
лошо все още си мисля че всичко си е постановка същите дават йената да ходи под 100 и долара да поскъпне до 1.2 в EUR/USD в рамките на година глеадм философски на нещата просто йената не е на мода сега но до седмица ще поскъпне но дали преди това няма да направи връх до 109.1(дъно) от 01.09.2004
FOREX-Yield appeal lifts dollar to 5-month high vs yen
Mon Apr 4, 2005 06:46 AM ET
(Updates price action, adds data and comment)
By Christina Fincher
LONDON, April 4 (Reuters) - The dollar firmed against the euro and hit its highest level against the yen since late October on Monday as investors bet higher interest rates would continue to support the U.S. currency.
The dollar's quick recovery from Friday's disappointing U.S. payrolls data cheered bulls who seized on other figures -- notably rising wages and raw material costs -- showing building inflationary pressure in the U.S. economy.
The prospect of rising U.S. interest rates helped the dollar rise above 108 yen , bringing its gains to three yen in as many weeks.
"You can make an argument to buy dollars or sell dollars on the data, but investors are going for yield and this is why the dollar is outperforming," said Neal Kimberley, head of FX sales at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi in London.
The dollar has enjoyed broad-based gains since the Federal Reserve suggested two weeks ago that it could raise interest rates faster than the current moderate pace if inflation heated up.
St Louis Fed President William Poole reinforced this message at the weekend, saying growth in the United States was strong and the central bank needed to ensure it confronted the risk of higher inflation.
The Fed has raised rates by a quarter percentage point seven times since June, bringing its key funds rate to 2.75 percent.
BREAKING CHART LEVELS
The dollar was up 0.5 percent at 108.15 yen at 1030 GMT, benefiting from technical and options-related buying after it broke above the key 108.00 level. The euro also succumbed to the dollar's strength, slipping 0.2 percent to $1.2885 , close to its lowest level in nearly two months.
Data on Friday showed the U.S. recovery generated only 110,000 new jobs last month, half of what economists had forecast. But rising hourly wages and a robust survey of the U.S. services sector helped the dollar recover and end the week on a strong note.
The dollar attraction was underscored by further economic gloom from the euro zone.
The European Commission on Monday downgraded its euro zone gross domestic product forecasts, saying high oil prices and the euro's recent strength meant growth in the 12-nation bloc was likely to be only 1.6 percent this year. It had previously forecast growth of 2 percent.
Analysts said the downgrade was not unexpected following recent weak data, but may make it harder for the European Central Bank to justify raising interest rates.
"The overall growth outlook shows the ECB's rattling on interest rates is inappropriate," said Philip Shaw, economist at Investec.
Japan brushed aside speculation on Monday it might sell dollars to diversify the world's largest pool of foreign exchange reserves, saying the last thing it wanted to do was to roil the markets.
Japan's Ministry of Finance said it did want to improve returns on its hoard of $840.6 billion in reserves through better management of funds in each of the currencies it holds, but had no plans to change the currency composition of the reserves.
BOJ policy seen unchanged after weak tankan
Mon Apr 4, 2005 01:22 AM ET
By Ritsuko Ando
TOKYO, April 4 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan is expected to leave its monetary policy unchanged when it meets this week, after a survey showing a fall in business confidence dented hopes of a solid economic recovery.
The BOJ's tankan survey last Friday showed much weaker sentiment than expected among large firms, and may, along with other recent poor data, make the BOJ wary of even the technical changes that some policy board members have suggested, economists said.
"The tankan headline figure was so bad and there isn't much merit in making a move at a time like this, however technical," said Shuichiro Natori, economist at Mizuho Research Institute.
The policy board is due to announce a decision after the two-day meeting ends on Wednesday. BOJ Governor Toshihiko Fukui is scheduled to give a news conference afterwards.
The BOJ, aiming to boost lending and reflate the economy, has vowed to maintain its four-year-old "quantitative easing" policy until the year-on-year change in the core consumer price index (CPI) stabilises above zero percent.
Under the policy, the BOJ sets the liquidity target, or the target volume of current account reserves held at the BOJ, at around 30-35 trillion yen ($279-325 billion).
The CPI has been falling for six straight years, yet some board members have recently suggested the BOJ should lower or allow a temporary breach of the liquidity target.
The reason is that banks' demand for funds has declined in line with ebbing fears of a financial crisis. Some of the BOJ's recent money market operations have gone undersubscribed as banks feel less need for funds.
Analysts have said demand may fall even further if banks show little signs of stress following the government's move to scrap full guarantees on bank deposits from April 1.
NO CONSENSUS
Three of the BOJ's nine-member board are seen as favouring changes to the target, based on their speeches and comments in media reports.
But such a move could be interpreted as credit tightening, and minutes of previous meetings show that other board members disagree.
Some economists also said it was too early to sound an all clear over the financial system. The BOJ should wait at least another month to assess fund demand after the end of blanket deposit guarantees.
"We know that bigger financial institutions are healthier these days. But we still need more time to be sure that the smaller banks are alright," said Mizuho's Natori.
Economists also said that for now, the word "around" that preceeds the target figure in its official statements would give the BOJ leeway to leave policy unchanged even if deposits fell below 30 trillion yen.
The BOJ has also also used longer-dated bills in its money market operations in an effort to keep the volume deposits above the lower end of the target.
"The tankan was weak and so were other recent indicators, so BOJ will have to stay still for another few months. In the meantime they can continue with what they're doing and be more creative with operations," said Hiromichi Shirakawa, chief economist at UBS Securities.
But even operations with longer-maturity have gone undersubscribed, and Shirakawa added there were limits to how much more the BOJ could do to maintain the target in the face of waning demand.
"There will come a time when the BOJ runs into a wall and has to make a change, but the timing isn't now. Perhaps later in the year," he said. ($1=107.71 Yen)
dobar den na vsichki.kakto pisah v petak za men nethata sa veche usd da propadne.vapros na vreme e!visokiq petrol i visokata inflaciq nqma kak da ne okajat vlianie za men probiv nad 1.3050 sledva 1.3280
dobar den na vsichki.kakto pisah v petak za men nethata sa veche usd da propadne.vapros na vreme e!visokiq petrol i visokata inflaciq nqma kak da ne okajat vlianie za men probiv nad 1.3050 sledva 1.3280
-А в Европа никак не е розово положението също !Изобщо икономическия растеж с този скъп петрол в Цял свят е пострадал разбира се поизводителите печелят , цена която е скочила в пъти за нула време си е спекулативна както и да оправдават поскъпването на петрола , консумацията за толкова кратък период не се е покачила много , та тя да е причината.
по отношение на переспективите за америка и за долара и- тази година процента на тези които са сключили договори за работа след мбеи е доста нисък , а след нова година почти няма интерес от страна на фирмите към набиране на управленски кадри - не е фактор от новините но създава някаква настроика дано ви е полезна
Коментар