Валутна търговия - FOREX - АРХИВ

[badboy]

E/D

Технически погледнато това би трябвало да е последният напън до 1,2214- 76%фибо и проджектед рейндж. Там опираме в дъното на трите низходящи канала на дневна, 4ч и часова графика. Би имало МАКД дивергенции от 5мин до 1час.

След 17.00 ще гледаме какво ще се оформи

[Marieta-New]

саксобанк

Да, по същия начин стана.

[chicago]

Mizuho monthly analysis

Monthly Technical Outlook
Wednesday, June 1, 2005 10:19 GMT
Monthly Reports
by Mizuho Corporate Bank
http://www.mizuho-cb.co.uk


Monthly Outlook for EUR
Comment: The nasty ‘spike low’ we warned of last month is happening in holiday-thin markets this week. We view the break below 1.2500 as an ‘extension’ and are looking for a dramatic reversal formation to develop on this month’s weekly and monthly candles. Where and when a low point is in place is almost impossible to gauge because of the current frenzied and indiscriminate US dollar buying. Investors are urged to watch and wait until a clear pattern emerges before re-buying Euros. Our long term view remains unchanged, with dips seen as buying opportunities for investors as we expect continued US dollar weakness later this year. A weekly close above 1.2500 would hint that the latest downside probe is over and that the trend to US dollar weakness has resumed; a monthly close above 1.2700 confirms and important interim low is in place.

A monthly close clearly below 1.2000 would force us to review.


Monthly Outlook for GBP
Comment: What had been all too neat consolidation in the first four months unravelled dramatically in May. The drop below 1.8400 is seen as some sort of ‘extension’, fuelled by rumour, position-slashing at any cost, and indiscriminate US dollar buying. Note that Cable also lost ten cents in April2004. Wait and watch for a clear reversal pattern to form on the weekly and monthly charts, confirming a ‘spike low’, which should mark an interim low to the correction so far this year. A weekly or monthly close above 1.8400 confirms a low is already in place.

A weekly close clearly below 1.8000 sets up for a re-test of the 1.7600/1.7475 area (2004 low).


Monthly Outlook for JPY
Comment: Over the last month the Yen has consolidated at slightly higher levels than we had anticipated. Nevertheless it remains below the April high at 109.00, and should do so again this month. Indiscriminate US dollar buying in a holiday-thin week means we cannot totally rule out a brief ‘spike high’ just above 109.00 early in June, marking the end of the upside probing we have seen over the last three weeks. This should then take us back down to 106.00 and probably 105.35, one standard deviation from the mean since 1987. A sustained break below 104.00 is probably too much to aim for within a month but is likely some time this summer.

A weekly close well above 109.00 forces us to adjust and should see the US dollar squeeze further into resistance at 110.00, and possibly the 112.00 area, before topping.


Monthly Outlook for EUR/JPY
Comment: Having spent most of last month in a tiny range, the best that can be said of this currency pair is that it is still trying to find a new interim base between 134.50 and 133.00, an area that has held the downside for the last seven months. Therefore expect a lot of messy work between here and 138.00 again this month. Only above here does the threat of further downside probes recede.

A weekly close below 132.00 suggests we are unlikely to take out 140.00 for a very long time and that this pair is more likely to move randomly between 128.00 and 139.00 for many more months.


Monthly Outlook for EUR/GBP
Comment: May’s rally to Ј0.6900 has formed a new interim high against weekly trendline resistance and the Ichimoku ‘cloud’. Prices are on their way down again, having dropped back through the pivotal level at 0.6850. They should probably hold below here this month, drifting to April’s low at 0.6740. Later this year we feel there is a good chance of dropping to key support around 0.6600/0.6550, and rallying to 107.00/108.00 on the Bank of England’s Trade Weighted Index by year-end.

Above weekly close above 0.6900 forces us to adjust, suggesting that the move lower will not be sustained and that we have been sucked in to some sort of ‘false break’.



Download Monthly Outlook for EUR Updated: June 1, 2005
Download Monthly Outlook for GBP Updated: June 1, 2005
Download Monthly Outlook for JPY Updated: June 1, 2005
Download Monthly Outlook for EUR/GBP Updated: June 1, 2005
Download Monthly Outlook for EUR/JPY Updated: June 1, 2005

By Nicole Elliott
Mizuho Corporate Bank
Email: Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk
Web: http://www.mizuho-cb.co.uk

[chicago]

Mizuho monthly analysis

DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Wednesday, June 1, 2005 7:18 GMT
Daily Report
by Mizuho Corporate Bank
http://www.mizuho-cb.co.uk


EUR
Comment: Spinning out of control as it hits a low of 1.2296 late yesterday. It is as oversold as it was in September 2000, when it dropped below 0.8500 just ahead of the all-time low at 0.8228 in October that year. It has lost 13 Ѕ cents this year, 9.8%, similar to the 9.0% it lost between February and May last year. We feel that this week’s move in holiday-thin markets is probably the final clear-out of the corrective action of the last five months. For today expect more cautious work below 1.2500. Only a daily close above here, and a weekly close above 1.2700, would add weight to our view. Until then try and do as little as possible and wait until you see ‘the whites of their eyes’.

Strategy: For those who have to: possibly attempt tiny longs at 1.2325; stop well below 1.2200. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.2500 for 1.2600 short term and 1.2700 further out.


GBP
Comment: Trying to base against 1.8100, but with generalised and poorly thought-through US dollar buying at the moment, it needs help from other major currencies to form a clear reversal pattern. This is expected to develop over the newt week or two, so until then extreme caution is essential. It is still more oversold than it has been since June 2001, probing monthly channel support, and there is a very good chance that the dip below 1.8200 is some sort of ‘extension’. A daily close above 1.8300 would add weight to our view, but a weekly close above 1.8400 is needed to confirm. Until then try and do as little as possible.

Strategy:Possibly attempt tiny longs at 1.8165; stop below 1.8100. Add to longs above 1.8275 for 1.8400 short term and then 1.8600 further out.


JPY
Comment: Still probing the upside and above weekly trendline but below the April high. The US dollar is very overbought but while above the Ichimoku ‘cloud’ neither bulls nor bears have had to seriously re-think positioning. We shall allow for another very cautious upside probe today. A daily close clearly below 107.50 would hint that an interim top is in place, but only below 106.50 is this confirmed. This should then trigger a sharp drop to the 105.50 early next month.

Strategy: Possibly sell at 108.30; stop well above 108.55. Add to shorts on a break below 107.70 for 107.25 short term and 106.55 further out.


EUR/JPY
Comment:Trying to cling to support at 133.00, an area where it based in January and on several occasions last year. It is oversold but while below 135.00 we shall have to allow for more cautious downside probes.

Strategy:Attempt tiny longs at 133.50; stop well below 133.00. Cover longs ahead of 135.00 but be ready to re-buy on a sustained break above 135.25 for 136.00.



Download Today's EUR Updated: June 1, 2005
Download Today's GBP Updated: June 1, 2005
Download Today's JPY Updated: June 1, 2005
Download Today's EUR/JPY Updated: June 1, 2005

By Nicole Elliott
Mizuho Corporate Bank
Email: Nicole.Elliot@mhcb.co.uk
Web: http://www.mizuho-cb.co.uk

[Varna 2]

margin level

Моето мнение без да имам предвид настоящите ми сделки, които са плод на моята палавост.
Кабела зависи от това дали ще пробие 1,81 и дали ще пробие 1,8255.
Еврото е котва отвсякъде и дори не смея да прогнозирам, знам само че трябва да се продава при всеки пробив на фрактал.
Евро/йена и долар/йена се изправят пред доста стари си слилни подкрепа и съпротива 132,96 и 108,88. Преодоляването им ще разхлаби още коланите на еврото.
Не искам да ставам смешен, но при неуспех на йената да ги пробие може да започне корекция.

[bnight]

експерт

Добър ден на всички. Имах една идея за разработка на експерт. В последствие го превърнах в цялостна система с изработен ММ. Та експерт-а е за МТ4 така че моля всички които ползват тази платформа и имат желание да ми помогнат с тестовете да си изтеглят експерт-а от тук. http://bnight.my.contact.bg/Full%20SAR%20System(BG).rar Късмет на всички днес.

[bgr]

margin level

Зелен, при 20%

[kukuvicata]

margin level

Радвам се да те видя тук malkia

[malkia]

margin level

Е айде много здраве и от мен и умната. Пазарът е във времево отношение и на нива, където много трябва да се внимава и не забравяйте да слагате стоплосове.

[1111111]

margin level

cad също не пропадна особено спрямо долара днес въобще много интересно

[1111111]

margin level

някой играе ли йената в момента или повечето се потим с еврото и кабела. чудя се дали подкрепата на дневна в евро/йена ще изтласка долар йена още нагоре или ще помогне на еврото да се оттласне спрямо долара. КОКО знам че ти си май по тая част

[Зелен]

margin level

margin lewel 56.4% Кога ще ми гръмне сметката? (в sts e ) ((

[aso]

саксобанк

не съм писал от 2-3 месеца защото не споделях идеята на Петьо че ще стигнем ниво 1.40 на еврото просто да не се обарквам , но сега мога твърдо да заявя че такова ниво близките 2-3 години няма да видим още тогава говорих,че трябва да обръщаме платната . успех на всички

[Болярин]

момента

Чест и почитания на "старите кучета"!
За нас начинаещите, някакви прогнози за кабела?

[taty]

момента

Кукс,поздрави и от мен :-))