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Интервю с бивш член на Shadow Open Market Committee. Общо взето за мен беше интересно следното:
- На въпроса: Как ще си плащат САЩ дълга, когато се вдигнат лихвите?; той отговори: Трябва да увеличим износа, т.е. трябва да обезценим долара и да стимулираме инвестициите, за съжаление по въпроса с инвестициите не правим нищо.
- На въпроса: Кога ще е следващата криза в САЩ?; той отговори: Когато обществото започне да се притеснява за инфлацията, тогава ФЕД ще вдигне лихвените проценти.
MUMBAI (Dow Jones)--The Indian rupee rose against the U.S. dollar for a second consecutive day Friday, ending a frenzied week, thanks to gains in the euro and profit-taking in the greenback.
The dollar was at INR55.37 late Friday in Asia, after rising as high as INR56.08 and compared with INR55.65 late Thursday. It scaled a new peak of INR56.37 Thursday, the seventh straight session of breaching record highs.
The dollar fell on indications the government would join hands with the central bank to announce policy measures supplementing currency market intervention to clamp down on the greenback's persistent strength.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh earlier in the day met with Reserve Bank of India Governor Duvvuri Subbarao, and a senior finance ministry official said the point of discussion was likely on the rupee's lingering weakness.
The meeting comes barely a day after Subbarao said the central bank hadn't ruled out selling dollars directly to oil importers. Such a move could isolate a key source of dollar demand from the market and boost the rupee.
"With limited room for improvement in domestic macro fundamentals in the near term, any pullback in the dollar-rupee [pair] is likely to be largely dependent on policy initiatives or an improvement in global risk appetite," Olivier Desbarres, a strategist at Barclays, said in a note.
ICICI Bank said in a note the RBI has enough ammunition to temper dollar demand--the central bank could open a separate window for oil importers to buy the greenback, or buy oil bonds in return for dollars. The issue of a sovereign-guaranteed bond to non-resident Indians at attractive rates, issue of sovereign bonds to foreign investors, and raising the ceiling for foreign investment into bonds are other options, ICICI said.
While these measures are anticipated, the RBI continued with market intervention Friday. The central bank likely started selling dollars from INR55.92, dealers said.
In the government debt market, bonds ended mildly lower in a dull session as a bond sale worth INR150 billion loomed.
The benchmark 8.79% 2021 bond ended at INR101.79, down from INR101.87 Thursday.
A bond buyback by the RBI did little to push up prices. The RBI bought back INR111.94 billion worth of notes, compared with up to INR120 billion announced.
Barclays thinks the RBI is committed to keeping the liquidity deficit among banks at a manageable level. However, "barring support from bond buybacks, supply pressures will be high in June and bond yields appear very much dependent on the continuation of the RBI's open market operations," it said.
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