ЗЛАТОТО - бъдеще и перспективи!

[Веско]

Златото не е толкова инвестиция, колкото вариант за запазване на част от активите в нешто материално и сигурно. Балона на борсата изпуска отвреме-навреме, НИ се амортизират и стојността им много зависи от настроенията на пазара. Метала е бягство.
Купувам Родиј

[karakondjul]

V momenta moeto mnenie e slednoto: Zlatoto nqma da se vdigne pove4e ot sega6nite 625$ za troiuncia.

Ima6e dobri vremena pred proletta na 2006 prez koito moje6e da se napravi dobar 20-30% profit za 1 mesec. Tova vreme otmina. Minalata sedmica zlatoto padna ot 645 do 605 za dva dni. Tova bi triqbvalo da predzvika mnogo vaprosi i samneniq dali e podhodq6to za dalgosro4na investiciq. Nesamneno nqkoi trader-i sa napravili pari ot posledniqt pad, no tova ne e dobro za tezi koito kupuvat zlato kato vlojenie. Kogato sme svideteli na takava volatilnost, smiatam 4e potenciqla na zlatoto da sahranqva stoinostta si e pod vapros.

AKO, hipoteti4no kazano zlatoto se vdigne, ili AKO stanem svideteli na sledva6ta valna na poskapvane smiatam 4e tova 6te ima slednite posledstviq:

1) Stock market-a 6te postrada mnogo seriozno. Iasno e che tuk imame obratna korelacia. Varnete lentata nazad i poglednete kakvo stana s DJ pri cenite ot 790 prez proletta. Dobre 4e be6e za kratko... za mesec-dva akciite i fondovete bqha v "svobodno padane". Stock market-a v momenta darji cqlata Amerikanska ikonomika na kraka - ako gi nqma6e pe4albite ot akciite Amerikancite niama6e da mogat da posre6nat recesiata v NI i saotvetno moje da se o4akva domino-efekt, masovi faliti i palna ikonomi4eska depresiq i mnogo seriozni posledstvia za US i Bush v politi4eski plan ne na posledno mqsto.

2) zlatoto obiknoveno varvi v krak s inflaciqta i tova 6te varne strahovete ot novi povi6eniq ot strana na The Fed. Ima i argument, koito e mnogo validen 4e zlatoto, vav funkciqta si na pari, raste, i pri deflacionna koniunktura, taka kakto i obiknovenite pari, no tova smqtam 4e ne se otnasq za situaciqta v momenta. Darjavite, koito v momenta pritejavat Amerikanski aktivi - China, Japan, Russia, SKorea, OPEC, UK, mnogo qsno pokazaha - 4rez izqvleniq na tqhnite Centralni Banki - che nqma da dopusnat ponatata6no obezcenqvane na tqhnite aktivi i mnogo pati preduprejdavaha The Fed da ne si igrae s dollar-a. Zatova i ne o4akvam The Fed da se osmeli da namali lihvenite procenti. Status quo.

3) Vra6tane na dneven red na strahovete za kolaps na US dollara i saotvetnite reakcii ot strana na investitorite

Ako takav scenarii se "razvihri" to togava vsledstvie na otricatelnite posledici za ikonomikata sledva i da o4akvame korekcii na cenata na zalatoto.Toest smqtam, 4e riazkoto povi6avaneto na zlatoto zastra6ava svetovnata ikonomika i 6te dovede do srivove i dori kolaps na US i China, ikakto v posledstvie i na cenata na samoto zlato, ottuk smqtam 4e tova uveli4enie nqma da bade dopusnato. Centralnite Banki 6te napravqt vsi4ko vazmojno zlatoto da ostne pri nivata na koito e. Poevtinqvane i vra6tane na nivata 500-550 ne e nikak izkliu4eno. Zaradi efekta na mahaloto mojem da vidim i ceni pod 500.

Prez izminalata godina, koqto be6e mnogo silna za zlatoto, to ne uspq da vdigne cenata si sprqmo evroto. Ili go napravi nezna4itelno. Zatova nevijdam Amrikanskata ikonomika i satelitite i (japan, China...) da tolerirat tova. Sa6testvuva ogromen globalen risk ot padane na dollara sprimo ostanalite valuti i povi6enq nad 700$ za troiunciq 6te predizvika bezkompromisna reakciq ot strana na Centralnite Banki.

Moqta prognoza 500-600.

[Alee]

Уран и злато-за мен това ще бъдат хитовете на 2007.
Една малка история, дано Ви хареса:


You Gotta Have Faith:
The Rise And Rise Of Paladin Resources

By Greg Peel

"Trading in Paladin shares was extremely heavy Tuesday - beginning the day with two large block trades totalling over 15 million shares. By mid-afternoon, over 28.5 million Paladin shares had traded, with the stock up 14 cents to $4.94."

That's Canadian dollars. This report came not out of the Australian Stock Exchange, but the Toronto Stock Exchange.

Finance reports coming out of Canada on Tuesday, October 24, had a singular focus. That country's, and the world's, largest uranium miner, Cameco, had just announced that due to severe flooding at its Cigar Lake project in Saskatchewan the ramp-up of the project would not be complete by 2008 as hoped. In fact, the flooding could delay the project by a year or more.

Cigar Lake was previously forecast to produce 18 million pounds of uranium in 2008-10, representing 10-12% of world demand. This set-back will have a significant effect on the already stretched uranium demand/supply balance. Forecasts of two or three years of surpluses, ahead of the 2013 expiry of Soviet warhead supply, are now in jeopardy.

The Yahoo Finance (Canada) report went on to note:

"Paladin has two uranium developments that are scheduled to begin production in 2007 and 2008, both large, low-grade open-pit operations that don't have the same risks associated with Cameco's high-grade underground mines."

Canada is the world's largest producer of uranium. That an Australian uranium producer other than BHP Billiton (BHP) or Rio Tinto (RIO) could take centre stage in such high level circles is testament to the tenacity and success of a company that only three years ago was trading at 0.8 cents on the ASX.

*****

We are all familiar with the legend of King Arthur and his Knights of the Round Table. The romantic notion of the medieval knight is one of chivalry, valour, and a quest for adventure. Knights were the elite of any king's army.

In the eight century, Europe was ruled by a Germanic king – Charlemagne. He, too, was supported by an elite corps of knights, which in Charlemagne's case were known as "paladins".

In 1991, geologist John Borshoff was CEO of Uranerz, the Australian subsidiary of German mining company Uranerzbergbau. The company was extremely interested in mining uranium in a country that had in past decades proven vast reserves. To that end, Uranerz set about compiling a massive database of Australian uranium geology.

But 1991 was not a promising time to be mining uranium. The world was no longer interested in nuclear energy. The Chernobyl disaster of 1986 had put paid to that. With only limited demand, uranium was trading at under US$10/lb.

And Australia was even less promising a proposition. Australians had already been spooked by the Three Mile Island scare of 1979, and under pressure from a growing anti-nuclear lobby the government elected in 1983 decided to act. Australia had three operating uranium mines at that time, and the government passed legislation that would prevent any further operations. This was Australia's curious gift to the world – the "Three Mines Policy".

In 1991, Uranerz gave up.

John Borshoff, however, was not going to give up quite so easily. Uranium may have been a dead issue, but something told John that one day, things might be different. He convinced Unanerbergbau to sell him their extensive uranium database, and put it away for a rainy day. In the meantime, once a geologist always a geologist. John decided to go exploring for gold.

In 1993, Paladin Resources (PDN) was floated on the Australian Stock Market. Paladin didn't have to waste too much time looking for gold, as in 1996 a new government was elected. That government (still in power today) immediately rescinded the "three mines" legislation. Uranium mining was on for young and old.

Paladin moved quickly, and in 1997 acquired 70% of prospective ground in South Australia's Frome Basin, not far from where today's Beverley and Honeymoon projects are ramping up towards production. Driving Paladin's purchase was the fact that uranium had begun to enjoy some renewed interest, with countries such as Japan, having no energy resources of its own, turning to nuclear energy (despite the obvious irony). By 1997 the uranium spot price had shot up to US$15/lb.

In 1998, Paladin made another bold move in acquiring the Manyingee and Oobagooma deposits in Western Australia. But tensions were soon to rise to boiling point in that state, when a report was leaked in 1999 that one company was moving to establish a vast nuclear waste dump in Western Australia, intended to accept waste from across the globe. The state government knew all about it.

Western Australians were appalled. The political backlash that was set in train ultimately resulted in the banning of uranium mining in WA by the state government in power today. While the federal government may have lifted its own ban, state governments in Australia retain the jurisdiction to dictate their own state's policy.

This was a set back for Paladin, but not as much a set back as the coincidental slump in world uranium prices, which saw the spot price drift off from US$15/lb to be around US$6/lb by 2001. Paladin lost $2 million in 1999.

The company became disenchanted with the Australian, and world, uranium environment. In what must have seemed a desperate measure at the time, Paladin turned its attentions to the new world boom – technology. In 2000, Paladin acquired 20% of a software company. The timing was fortuitous, for the tech bubble still had further to stretch.

"As you say, you've believed in uranium for a very long time. Did it ever waver? Did you ever think, "This is hopeless. It'll never happen"?

Financial journalist Alan Kohler interviewed John Borshoff on ABC TV's Inside Business in April this year.

"To tell you the truth, no. For a little while, we subsidised our effort by dabbling in the hi-tech boom, but we never gave up on our uranium assets. We maintained our capital base, we didn't have to restructure, and we sort of grew from that 0.8 of a cent, I think, to what we are today, all in a matter of - well, since November '03."

It is true – Borshoff never gave up on uranium. When the uranium spot price was slipping away in 1998, Paladin bought an 80% stake in the Kayelekera uranium deposit in the north of Malawi – a tiny, but densely populated, African nation hemmed in by Tanzania, Zambia and Mozambique.

Yet the future must still have looked pretty bleak for the employees of a company that could only manage a share price of 0.8 cents in late 2003. But then, an amazing thing happened. The spot uranium price suddenly started to move up – in a hurry.

Global warming – truth or fiction? A synthetic result of man's prodigious and profligate appetite for fossil fuels, or a natural progression in the ebb and flow of the Earth's climatic patterns over the millennia of its existence? It doesn't matter. Two things are now certain – firstly, the persistent burning of fossil fuels causes devastating pollution and secondly, the average citizen of the globe now rates climate change as their number one fear, even ahead of terrorism.

The former was a significant reason why the world's fastest growing economy – China – decided it was time to embrace nuclear energy in a big way. China's involvement, given its recent voracious consumption of the world's resources, was enough in itself to re-spark the uranium price. But gradually the rest of the world arrived at the same conclusion – nuclear must go back on the energy agenda.

The change in attitude was as sudden as it was unexpected. As the uranium price began to move up so did the fortunes of Paladin Resources. Borshoff told Kohler:

"When we were sitting at about $0.40, I made a prediction to my group that I thought in 4-5 years we would get to $1 billion and that seemed fantasy to my people. Whether it was $1 billion or $2 billion at that time, it was just, it was so absurdly high that everybody was saying, ‘Okay well, this guy is a bit silly anyway. It's gone from $0.01 to $0.40'. It's more the acceleration, I guess, that's taken so little time for the swing to occur and it's essentially a rebound coming out of a 25-year stagnation."

It was that stagnation that provided the opportunity for Borshoff to further consolidate Paladin's uranium ventures.

In 1973, South African mining giant, Gencor, discovered uranium in neighbouring Namibia. It then set about conducting extensive ore resource, ore processing, mining and engineering studies. It even operated a test pilot plant for 18 months. But eventually Gencor lost faith in the depressed uranium market, and it placed the project under "care and maintenance".

In 2002, Paladin bought the project from Gencor for a mere $15,000. That project is known as Langer Heinrich.

Kohler asked Borshoff what was going through his mind at the time Langer Heinrich was acquired:

"It felt, even at the time when we bought it - I mean it was a major commercial decision because we only had about $50,000 in the bank. So we had to decide very carefully and even negotiate the price down somewhat so it could get into our affordability range. That just shows you how dead uranium was as late as 2002 and that nobody in the world was looking at uranium ever going through the sort of resurgence that it has. Now, looking in hindsight, I just feel, you know, that all that belief is being vindicated."

Paladin Resources now boasts a market capitalisation of over $2 billion. It hasn't been a one-way ride, and the company's share price has recently become a benchmark for the Australian uranium industry. When the uranium price started to move, Australian investors went into uranium frenzy mode. Any company that mined uranium, that hoped to mine uranium, that was exploring for uranium, or that owned plots of land in which they hoped uranium might lay, shot up almost overnight.

So has begun the rock and roll ride of the Australian uranium industry – one that is unique in the world. It is unique because despite the fact Australia can boast the world's largest known reserves of uranium, mining is banned in two out of four known reserve areas. It is permitted in the federally-controlled Northern Territory, home to Energy Resources Australia's (ERA) massive Ranger mine, and proposed Jabiluka mine. It is also permitted in the state of South Australia, home to the world's largest single deposit – Olympic Dam – owned by BHP Billiton.

It is not permitted in Australia's only other two states that have proven commercial reserves – Western Australia and Queensland. While the attitudes of those governments, or indeed the governments themselves, might change in the next few years, the fact remains it will take several years for any of the earmarked projects to even get off the ground.

This was one fact overlooked in the great Australian uranium rush, and as such initial euphoria turned to cautious realisation that shares in particular Australian uranium ventures may not be all that valuable after all. As a result, share prices have surged and retreated, ducked and dived, and Paladin has been swept along in the wake.

But the simple fact remains that with its interests outside of Australia, Paladin is one Australian uranium miner that can actually deliver.

Paladin now owns 100% of Kayelekera in Malawi, and 100% of Langer Heinrich in Namibia. While Kayelekera boasts 3.4Mt of "inferred resource", Langer, at 40Mt, is one of the world's most significant uranium deposits. Commissioning is running ahead of schedule at Langer, and the company expects the mine to be operational by December. Kayelekera has a similar schedule. As both mines are of the open-pit variety, so Paladin will have little difficulty in toasting 2007 as one of the world's largest uranium producers.

But it doesn't end there. Paladin has since sold out rights over its Frome Basin exploration site in South Australia to Deep Yellow Ltd, while retaining shares in that company as well as a royalty deal. But not to forget that Paladin still owns Manyingee (4.2Mt of inferred resource) and Oobagooma (1.0Mt) in Western Australia. And in a cheeky move in July, Paladin made a takeover bid for all the shares in Queensland uranium company, Valhalla Uranium (VUL).

While not exactly up to Langer standards, Valhalla's joint venture with Summit Resources (SMM) claims considerable reserves in its Valhalla, Skal and Bigrlyi deposits near Mt Isa. The reason the bid was cheeky is that Summit holds a first-right option over Valhalla's 50% of the joint venture should it decide to sell its share. Valhalla did not sell its share to Paladin, it is selling its own shares – a subtle difference. Suffice to say the matter is currently being played out in court.

Whatever the outcome, the fact remains neither Western Australia nor Queensland permit uranium mining, but this does not currently faze Paladin. In the company's latest annual report, Chairman Rick Crabb stated:

"With its strong production profile from its African projects and opportunities elsewhere in the world, Paladin can afford to take a patient approach in Australia. Given the world dynamics for energy fuels, it is in my view inevitable that the opportunity for Paladin to produce Australian-sourced uranium will arise in due course."

The spot uranium price currently stands at US$56.25/lb. Since the flooding at Cigar Lake, commentators are suggesting it will not be long before it reaches US$100/lb.

It is Paladin's stated objective to identify, acquire and evaluate advanced uranium projects. Through merger and acquisition, John Borshoff perceives Paladin as one of the world's foremost uranium companies. Langer Heinrich is the springboard.

Paladin's share price has recently tested $6.00. The major stockbrokers in Australia have been as much taken by surprise as anybody else by the sudden resurgence of the Australian uranium industry. Only three major stockbrokers in the country, forming part of the FN Arena database, cover the stock. While having initially considered Paladin's rise to prominence a case of overbought euphoria, analysts have now begun to rethink their views.

Deutsche Bank was one broker who thought Paladin was overdone, but earlier in the month, with uranium prices pushing ever higher (up 50% this year), the analysts changed their minds and upgraded to a Buy rating, setting a target of $6.04. ABN Amro has held a Buy rating, with a target of $5.63. UBS last week reflected on its target of $5.50, before deciding to pull its rating back to Neutral.

All of the three are yet to reassess their views post Cigar Lake. As the uranium price comes under even more upward pressure, it is inevitable that more stockbroker attention will be paid to Paladin, in turn generating more investor attention.

The mining industry is fraught with risk, and many a mining investor has been caught out concentrating too much on commodity prices, and not enough on realities. But of all the uranium companies listed on the Australian Stock Exchange, outside of global diversified giants BHP and Rio Tinto (which owns two-thirds of ERA), Paladin is a company that can justify excitement based on actual mining results. As evident in the global interest generated in its share price, Paladin's star is on the ascendancy.

[Stoyan]

Благородните метали ще бъдат хита на 2007. Така както базовите метали бяха хита на първата половина на 2006 а царевицата и житото - на цялата 2006.

[wlado]

... Аз лично предпочитам акциите на компаниите, а не метала.

Не знам дали някой е чул но има една канадска фирма която според експерти е в процес на едно от най-големите златни открития правени някога - казва се Aurelian Resources Inc:
http://www.aurelian.ca/
Очаква се да открият към 20 милиона + унции злато и прогнозите са акциите им да се качат до $50-$100 CAD$ (Някои прогнози са за $150). Aurelian се търгува на борсата. Разбира се са силно рисков залог защото находището е в Перу, но без риск няма печалба! :-)

Разбира се това не е препоръка да се продава и купува каквото и да е!

[mvr0306]

ето ви от мене нещо за немскоговорящите. Сайта е много изчерпателен (падащото меню горе) за търговия с физическо злато. Иначе за курса - www.kitco.com
www.bullionpage.de
http://bullionpage.de/

[капитан Немо]

БЛАГОДАРЯ, ВЕСКО! И НА МЕН САЙТА НА КОМЕРЦБАНК МИ ВЪРШИ РАБОТА :-D ;-)

[Alee]

лека полека и аз почнах да навлизам в "златни" позиции. Акции на минодобивни компании, които основно добиват злато. Засега сме ОК, 10% за седмици. Сега чакам крачка назад, но дългосрочно сме напред. Независимо, че $ днес е по-добре. Аз лично предпочитам акциите на компаниите, а не метала.

[Веско]

Captain,
https://www.commerzbank.de/kurse/kur...alle/index.cfm
mene me ustroiva tozi site, stoto pazaruvam po 100 gr. Po-udobni sa mi za nosene.
Ako te interesuvat golemi kolichestva viz tova
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
pozdravi

[капитан Немо]

Колеги,
Знаете ли къде в интернет мога да видя спот цените на благородни метали?Най-вече ме вълнува златото/незабавна доставка/.

[pitankata]

Очаква се да се покачи

[amatorium]

Те индийците (мангалите) и колкото и злато да си кичат пак ще са прасета със звънчета.

[Императорът]

Да, щото индианките всяка година трябва да имат ново бижу - въпрос на чест. Нали са циганки...

[Han Krum]

Златото е добро най-вече, когато доверието във влутата се губи. Към момента има вренно задържане и ще има може би дори лек спад. Но не се съвнявайте 2010 - 2012, когато бебешкия бум в щатите си поиска социалните осигуровки долара ще се срине. Тогава златото ще заблести и ще огрее този у когото е. А в момента тенденцията е, че Китай и Русия изкупуват вечния метал.

Най-големия потребител е Индия. Само информативно....

[amatorium]

Златото е добро най-вече, когато доверието във влутата се губи. Към момента има вренно задържане и ще има може би дори лек спад. Но не се съвнявайте 2010 - 2012, когато бебешкия бум в щатите си поиска социалните осигуровки долара ще се срине. Тогава златото ще заблести и ще огрее този у когото е. А в момента тенденцията е, че Китай и Русия изкупуват вечния метал.