Валутна търговия - FOREX - АРХИВ

[Refractory]

Delta

Eiiiii da ne powqrwa 4owek 6te widim w ponedelnik )

[kukuvicata]

Delta

Refractory, пуснаха я новата платформа - успешно при това
айде да ни е честита и много профити на нея ))

[kukuvicata]

Delta

bongo, мерси, но мен повече ме интересува какви ще са резултатите от тази среща...
за мен като трейдър е по-важно пазара да е в нормално състояние, за да може методите които ползвам да дават добри резултати.
е, ако отворим с геп, ще даде добър резултат, особено някоя котировчица около 1.23/1.2130 ))))
но стига мечти, я какво хубаво време навънка
приятен уикенд

[bongo]

Delta

blagodarq za otgwora. Pojelawam ti ogromen GAP w nedelq we4er . I da spodeli6 pls kak sa bili izpulneni poru4kite.....

[kukuvicata]

Delta

Ако брокера играе ролята си на посредник, няма начин да се набута от тази сделка.
Защо да е нямало такава котировка - пазара затваря на 1.2701 и отваря на 1.2550 (да речем) - всички ордери между 1.2701 и 1.2550 трябва да бъдат изпълнени.
И ако той открие съответната поръчка на пазара, за която посредничи между мен и пазара - всичко е ОК.
Друг е въпросът, когато брокера избира да търгува за собствена сметка срещу клиентите си - тогава си носи риска. Но пак е длъжен да изпълни всички stop и limit order-и.
Иначе какъв е смисъла от тях?!

[bongo]

Delta

imenno zatowa pitam, poneje sum nov i ne mi se e slu4walo do sega. Spomnqm si oba4e 4e pri zalawqneto na sadam
dosta hora se qdoswaha na gapa - pri podminawane na stopa se izpulnqwa pri purwata realna kotirowka, t.e. dosta
otdolu. A i na men puk ne mi se wijda logi4no da izpulnqt na nivo koeto ne go e imalo t.e. brokera da se "nabuta".

[kukuvicata]

Delta

където си задал нивото.
няма логика да ти отворят позиция от друго ниво - аз не съм подал пазарен ордер, a стоп...
обратната логика би означавала ако имаш стоп на позиция, те да ти го изпълнят не където си го сложил, а където си отворят...

[bongo]

Delta

kukuvica edin vapros - kogato ima gap i ima6 stop (gapa e podminal stopa), kade se izpulnqwa stopa - pri nivoto koeto si zadal ili nivoto na koeto otvori pazara
10x predwaritelno.

[kukuvicata]

Delta

И аз така мисля, дано да не се правят на чукове....

Но гледам от сутринта са се почнали, може и да успеят да прехвърлят нещата...
Стискаме им палци

[Refractory]

Delta

100% w ponedelnik w 00.00 4asa delta 6te imat problemi s platformata

[kukuvicata]

G7 - коментар (уточнение)

"Сложих ентри стоп лимити sell на 1.2660 и 1.2615" - извинявам се за правописната грешка, да се чете:

"Сложих ентри стоп sell на 1.2660 и 1.2615"

[kukuvicata]

G7 - коментар

Очакванията са за запазване на спада на долара след срещата на Г7 - поне така ни набиват в главите или се опитват да го направят.
На мене ми прави впечатление обаче, че твърдоглавите французи въобще не са съгласни с това и ще настояват за ясна декларация този път, за разлика от предишната среща в Дубай.
Франция показа че има волята да се противопоставя на САЩ - справка: войната в Ирак.
Лично аз очаквам че срещата ще ограничи, дори свали, макар и кратковременно котировките, според мен в диапазона 1.23-1.25 - нищо чудно да отворим и с подобен гап.

В петък вечер направих следното:
- Стопирах си късите от 1.2714 на нулата (1.2714)
- Влязох 5 минути преди затварянето на пазара на дълга позиция в usd/jpy от 105.46 със стоп на 105.38
- Влязох 5 минути преди затварянето на пазара на къса позиция в gbp/usd от 1.8464 със стоп на 1.8472
- Сложих ентри стоп лимити sell на 1.2660 и 1.2615
Ако пазара отвори с огромен геп надолу - ще реализирам добри печалби.
Ако пазара отвори нагоре - ще загубя по 8 пипса в кабела и usd/jpy.

[kukuvicata]

G7 - четива за уикенда

FT MONEY - MARKETS WEEK WORLD: Euro strength tipped to persist after G7 meet
By Jennifer Hughes
Financial Times; Feb 07, 2004



The G7 meeting this weekend was the main influence on the dollar"s moves during the week.

As finance ministers and central bankers prepared to head to Boca Raton, Florida, currency traders were reflecting on a turbulent week and forecasting another one ahead.

The euro ended London trading yesterday just off a high of $1.2724 against the dollar. The US currency was weakened by a lower-than- expected rise in US payrolls. But even that was linked to the G7 meeting, with investors betting that the low level of job creation would steel US delegates against supporting European calls for exchange rate stability, which would have boosted the dollar.

Signs last month that European officials were uncomfortable with the euro"s rapid rally prompted speculation that the G7 would agree a stronger line on currencies to help temper the rate of the dollar"s decline. But in spite of the apparent unanimity among Europeans, traders said this week that the seeming lack of common ground with Japan or the US made it unlikely the G7 would reach consensus. They believe the dollar could resume its slide.

A survey late this week by 4Cast, the economic consultancy, put median expectations for the euro next Friday at $1.275, up from just below $1.26 when the survey was taken. The dollar was expected to break below the key Y105 level against the yen to Y104.9.

After the previous meeting in September, the group"s call for "more flexibility in exchange rates" sent the US currency sharply lower as the market interpreted the comments as tacit acceptance of the need for a weaker dollar to help cut the ballooning US current account deficit.

Since then, the dollar has fallen 12 per cent against the euro and 7 per cent against the yen.

Europeans are believed to want some watering-down of the call for flexibility given that there are few signs of Asian central banks bowing to the implied pressure. Eurozone officials have complained that Asian intervention unfairly puts the burden of the dollar"s slide on freely floating currencies such as the euro. But China continues to defend its pegged system for the renminbi, while just last month, South Korea put in place curbs on offshore dollar selling.

Perhaps the most obvious sign of Asian intractability comes from the fact that Japan spent an unprecedented Y7,155bn ($67bn) last month intervening in the market and seems extremely unlikely to stop managing the yen"s rise.

"Japan will be speaking for Asia and won"t be prepared to agree on a statement that calls for Asian currency appreciation," said Mansoor Mohi-uddin, chief foreign exchange strategist at UBS, who said stock market direction - or the lack of it - would also affect Japan"s stance.

"When Japan let its currency appreciate around the last G7 meeting, the Nikkei was rallying strongly. Now, it is trading sideways at best."

More significantly still, US policymakers themselves have shown very little sign of discontent with the dollar"s fall. Inflation, the dangerous consequence of a depreciating currency, is not yet a problem and the weaker dollar is currently boosting US manufacturers" exports and providing a general fillip to the economy in an election year.

"This leaves the euro as the main avenue through which dollar weakness occurs," said Harvinder Kalirai, strategist at State Street, who recalled the comment made by John Connally, Treasury secretary under Richard Nixon.

Mr Connally told Europeans in 1971 that "the dollar may be our currency, but it is your problem".

David Bloom, currency strategist at HSBC, said the situation would need to get far more serious before the group would agree to take a strong line or possibly even co-ordinate intervention.

"Market mechanisms mean to get from A to B, we usually go via a more extreme point of C," he said. "The euro would need to reach $1.35 or $1.40 before the US and Europe agree to do something about it."

[kukuvicata]

G7 - четива за уикенда

FT MONEY - MARKETS WEEK: Currencies in focus ahead of G7 meeting
By Michael Morgan
Financial Times; Feb 07, 2004



Currencies came under the microscope this week as speculation mounted about whether the Group of Seven leading countries would today call for decisive action to halt the dollar"s precipitous slide.

Stock markets came under pressure as investors booked profits after any negative news; just a fortnight ago Wall Street and Europe rose to their best levels for more than a year.

Talk about dollar weakness turned to incessant chatter as G7 finance ministers gathered yesterday at Boca Raton in Florida for the start of the two-day meeting. The US currency has plunged 12 per cent against the euro since G7 ministers met in Dubai in September and tested near 3Ѕ-year lows against the yen earlier this week.

Inevitably, Europe and Japan are concerned that the dollar"s slide will damage the prospects of economic recovery in their regions by making their exports less competitive.

Jim O"Neill at Goldman Sachs was unconvinced by speculation in the run up to the G7 meeting that support for the dollar decline had been fraying.

"If global policymakers are to achieve the co-ordination the G7 is meant to facilitate, they cannot avoid the realities of "global rotation"," he said.

"The only way to get the world economy into balance, eliminating excess capacity and reducing the US current account deficit, is for the dollar to fall more and for demand growth outside the US to accelerate.

"Rather than resisting the process, the focus needs to be on managing it."

World stock markets were lower as the latest US quarterly reporting season wound down and investors still grappled with the significance of last week"s change of wording in the Federal Reserve"s monthly statement on interest rates. Previously, the Fed had said policy accommodation could be maintained "for a considerable period". Last week, it said it could "be patient" in removing its policy accommodation.

The change was seen by many as an indication that higher rates were planned sooner rather than later.

Gary Dugan at JP Morgan Private Bank said that judging by the amount written about the statement, investors could have thought that the Federal Reserve had heralded a groundbreaking change in its position on interest rates.

"However, in reality the market"s expectations for future interest rate increases is only back to where it was just three weeks ago, with most investors now expecting a rate increase around the middle of the year," said Mr Dugan.

And James Barty at Deutsche Bank said the macro backdrop remained supportive. Although there were concerns among some investors and commentators that the economic momentum was topping out, he saw little sign of it.

Mr Barty added: "The party will only come to an end when the Fed starts to move into tightening mode. Despite the change of wording last week, that still looks like June at the earliest to us."

On Wall Street, the Nasdaq Composite took a sharp tumble on Wednesday after Cisco Systems" chief executive made cautious comments on the outlook for technology spending. The Dow"s losses were more modest as investors took profits when economic data or corporate results delivered less than optimists had been hoping for.

Equity investors were, however, encouraged by yesterday"s US payrolls data even though job creation was not as high as had been hoped. The markets looked on the bright side, and rose by the close. Jack Caffrey, equity strategist for JP Morgan"s private bank, said some components of the figures driving unemployment rates "did not show continued deterioration, so the implicit situation seems to be getting better".

Europe traded in a narrow range all week as the debate over the impact of a strong euro generated more heat than light.

Gareth Williams at Lehman Brothers thought the threat to equities was overstated. Although euro strength was hurting profits, there were powerful offsetting factors, including the gathering strength of external demand in the US and Asia as well as in emerging markets.

Asian markets fell to around four-week lows amid concerns over the impact of the deadly bird flu virus on the region.

Tokyo reached a six-week trough as the weakening dollar kept alive investors" concerns about corporate earnings, particularly in the export sectors.

[kukuvicata]

G7 - четива за уикенда

COMPANIES: INTERNATIONAL: Corporate Japan hedges against the rise of the yen
By Jennifer Hughes and Barney Jopson
Financial Times; Feb 07, 2004



Japanese companies and investors are bracing themselves for a further fall in the dollar against the yen following this weekend"s G7 meeting.

Yen currency options volatility - a measure of the amount of hedging taking place - has risen to levels not seen since last year"s G7 meeting in Dubai.

Then, the group"s call for flexibility was interpreted as tacit acceptance of a weaker dollar, which promptly fell from Y114 towards its current three-year lows just above Y105. Options traders are reporting a number of hedges being placed to protect the buyer if the dollar were to fall to Y104 or Y103.

"The trading has been one-way," said Gary Noone, currency analyst at Informa. "People are thinking the G7 won"t come out with a strong line against dollar weakness and that this will be seen as a green light to sell dollars."

Last year, average daily turnover in yen-dollar options through brokers reached its highest level since 1996. Banks also reported a rise in interest from small and medium-sized companies.

Sean Callow, currency strategist at IDEAglobal, a consultancy, said a combination of continuing portfolio inflows into Japan and the G7 meeting would only increase volatility.

"By extension this will mean increased hedging activity in the derivatives market."

The Bank of Japan has spent an unprecedented Y27,000bn ($256bn) since the beginning of 2003 in stemming yen appreciation. Despite its actions, the Japanese currency has risen more than 12 per cent.

"There are effectively two forces here," said Julian Knight, head of FX at Fimat UK, the brokerage. "The BoJ is sitting there trying to weaken the yen, while Japanese pension funds and exporters want to buy yen and sell dollars ahead of the March year-end."

Traditionally, Japan"s car manufacturers, electronics exporters and machinery makers are the biggest users of hedging to protect their overseas earnings.

Exports to China have surged, and the renminbi"s peg to the dollar has provided an added impetus to protect earnings from a rise in the yen"s exchange rate.

Sony, the Japanese electronics giant, reckons each Y1 fall in the dollar"s value against the yen cuts the net value of its sales by Y30bn and its net profits by Y5bn. This quarter, it is using a budget rate of Y105 compared with Y110 for the previous quarter and Y115 in April last year.

A spokesman said the group had hedged almost 80 per cent of its exposure on a three-month basis.

"We follow the market almost 24 hours every day and when necessary make adjustments," said Sony.

The complications of marking derivatives exposure to market prices in their accounts means many companies are reluctant to use long-term strategies.

Observers said a lot of the rise in hedging after the September meeting in Dubai did not happen until December because hedging strategies can be subject to internal consultation because of the risks they imply.

"In most cases companies don"t hedge 100 per cent of their expected exposure - they like to keep room for manoeuvre," said Ichiro Ikeda, vice-president of currency and commodity at JP Morgan Chase in Tokyo. "They don"t want to lock in everything because if the dollar goes back up to Y110 they would suffer an opportunity loss."

JP Morgan is forecasting the dollar will fall to Y95 by the end of the year - which would be the yen"s strongest level since 1995.