Валутна търговия - FOREX - АРХИВ

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Za Koko

Tedy e-maila mi e ak@netbg.com

[dada]

dollar slide seems inevitable- economist article

MOST economists, and this newspaper, have been fretting about America's huge current-account deficit and predicting the dollar's sharp decline for years. The trouble with crying wolf too often is that people stop believing you. After slipping 14% in broad trade-weighted terms since 2002, the dollar had stabilised this year, even as the current-account deficit continued to grow. This has encouraged some economists to offer theories explaining why America's current-account deficit does not matter and why the dollar need not fall further. But the dollar has now started to slide again: this week it hit $1.28 against the euro, within a whisker of its all-time low of $1.29. Trust us, the wolf is real.The dollar's latest slide seems to have been triggered by uncertainty about the presidential election and a flurry of comments from Fed officials. Robert McTeer, the president of the Dallas Federal Reserve, mused (only “theoretically” of course) that when capital inflows into America dry up, “there will be a crisis that will result in rapidly rising interest rates and a rapidly depreciating dollar that will be very disruptive”.

Policymakers' usual reply when asked about exchange rates is to say that they are set by the market. But if the dollar was truly being set by the market it would now be much weaker. The dollar has fallen by over 30% against the euro since 2001, but its trade-weighted index has fallen by much less because of heavy intervention by Asian central banks, aimed at holding down their currencies against the dollar. This policy seems likely to continue, despite China's decision this week to raise interest rates for the first time in nine years. That decision was aimed at curbing its overheating domestic economy, rather than bolstering its currency.

Because Asian currencies have been held down against the dollar, America's current-account deficit has continued to swell, reaching almost 6% of GDP in the second quarter. The dollar is already below most estimates of its fair value against the euro, but it will need to undershoot if the deficit is to be reduced. Economists at UBS estimate that the dollar's trade-weighted value might need to fall by another 20-30% to trim the deficit by enough to stabilise the ratio of America's external liabilities to GDP. Though it might seem unthinkable, that could imply a rate of around $1.70 against the euro. Other economists, however, argue that America can sustain its large current-account deficit for at least another decade, without a sharp fall in the dollar, because it will be happily financed by China and other Asian countries. In a series of papers Michael Dooley, David Folkerts-Landau and Peter Garber at Deutsche Bank have argued that the present arrangements resemble a revived Bretton Woods, the system of fixed exchange rates after the second world war.

Asian economies, they argue, have chosen to link their currencies to the dollar at undervalued rates, supported by heavy purchases of dollar reserves. Asian countries want to keep their exports cheap to support rapid growth and are in consequence happy to keep acquiring dollars indefinitely. In turn, by buying Treasury bonds, they reduce interest rates, which supports spending and ensures that American consumers keep buying Asian goods.

Since 2001, Asia's official reserves have increased by $1.2 trillion, equivalent to two-thirds of America's cumulative deficit over that period. Currency intervention by Asian central banks helps to explain why America has so far been able to finance its deficit without higher American bond yields or a bigger fall in the dollar. However, the claim that the deficit is sustainable for another decade is highly dubious.

An excellent paper by George Magnus, an economist at UBS, argues that the parallels with Bretton Woods are superficial. One big difference is that in the 1960s the United States ran a current-account surplus and was a net creditor to the rest of the world. Today, America is the world's biggest debtor, which could undermine the dollar's role as an anchor currency.

Second, it is wrong to describe the Asian countries as habitual “peggers”. In the 25 years to 1998, non-Japanese Asian currencies typically fell against the dollar, and over the same period their countries mainly ran current-account deficits, not surpluses. Their more-firmly-tied exchange rates and current-account surpluses generally date only from 1998 when these countries needed to rebuild reserves after the Asian crisis. Their desire to tie their currencies to the dollar may be a temporary response to a cyclical problem.

A third important difference is that, unlike under the Bretton Woods regime, most Asian countries have scrapped capital controls or where they still exist, as in China, they are leaky. This requires much greater “sterilisation” by central banks to prevent an increase in reserves spilling into faster credit growth. As sterilisation has become less effective, excessive credit growth is pushing up inflation and causing overinvestment in property, especially in China. As the inflationary costs of maintaining their link to the dollar grow, Asian countries may shift to more flexible regimes.

Lastly, under Bretton Woods there was no real alternative to the dollar as a reserve currency. Today there is the euro, into which Asians could diversify.Mr Magnus reckons that the revived Bretton Woods is an illusion which will crack within a year or two. Even if it lasts longer, it is a dangerous way to run the world, for it encourages both China and America to pursue reckless policies. Excessive liquidity is causing the Chinese economy to overheat. Meanwhile, by buying Treasury bonds, Asian central banks are subsidising American borrowing costs, encouraging more consumer profligacy, and so allowing the current-account deficit to get even bigger. The inevitable correction will then be all the more painful.

Until recently, some argued that America's current-account deficit was sustainable because foreign investors were eager to buy American assets to take advantage of the economy's faster productivity growth and hence its higher returns. But private inward investment has slumped, leaving America dependent on foreign central banks. And foreign savings are no longer financing investment and hence future productivity gains as they were in the late 1990s. Foreigners are now financing consumption and government borrowing.

America's current-account deficit largely reflects puny domestic saving, so dollar bulls often argue that a fall in the dollar is neither necessary nor sufficient to trim the deficit. But Stephen Roach, chief economist at Morgan Stanley, reckons that a weaker dollar would spark a rise in real bond yields, as foreign creditors demanded extra compensation for currency risk. That would slow consumer spending, boost saving and reduce the deficit.

In the three years from 1985, the dollar fell by 50% against the other main currencies. Inflation and bond yields rose and, in October 1987, the stockmarket crashed. America's current-account deficit is now almost twice as big as it was then, so the total fall in the dollar—and the fall-out in other financial markets—could well be larger. The wolf is licking his lips.

[tedi]

Za Koko

Koko E-maila mi e bojko_d@hotmail.com
Ako mozhesh izprati mi twoya po nyakakyw nachin .Iskam da se posywetwam s teb po wypros nepryako swyrzan s borsata.

[iwo]

model

По точно в главата ми е интуитивна схема а моделът могем да го направим заедно

[iwo]

model

Днес си почивате , а аз анализирам грешките си , чета мисли на спекуланти от класа и търся успешен модел за правене на пари (Моделът е в главата ми , но ще го представям на части, защото е логическа верига и ми трябват мнения по всяка отделна част). Това , до което стигнах ще се опитам да го формолирам пред вас с цел обсъждане . За начало една мисъл на Сорос: На пазара винаги съществуват предпочитания в едно или друго направление...финансовия успех зависи от способността да се предвидят преобладаващите очаквания , а не от способността да се прогнозират промените в реалния свят. Нека за начало обсъдим кое и какво е формирало вашите предпочитания , тогава когато сте печелили и сте били убедени че не грешите - а така също и когато сте губили ?Старая се просто да тръгна от правилна изходна точка и всеки коментар на тема предпочитания ще е полезен , надявам се на вас също.

[ds]

котировките

Интересна работа, кой пазар работи още та да оказва влияние на котировките?
Това нормално ли е?

[ico72]

INVESTOR

Коко какво имаш предвид с "като хората"

[ico72]

INVESTOR

Щом като е неработен ден защо се местят котировките ?

[koko]

INVESTOR

Rosene nad 6% ot amerikanskata ikonomika e sobstvenost na sauditska arabia ti kakvo mislish 11 e kalkuliran ve4e a mejdu drugoto tova be i parvata moia goliama pe4alba ne 4e sam predpolagal prosto slu4aino biah dalag

[Rossen Hristov]

INVESTOR

Osama igrae na FOREX pazara i iska da manipulira izborite ))) Kakvo li e namislil )))

[Rossen Hristov]

INVESTOR

Daite da otvorim edin forum v dir.bg ili v abv.bg ili neshto ot sorta, kakvo shte kazhete?

[koko]

INVESTOR

UVAJAEMI INVESTOR.BG
VIJDATE MNOGO DOBRE 4E POSTINGITE V TOIA FORUM SA N1. PREDI VREME NAPRAVIHTE EDNA OT PARVITE USPESHNI BORSOVI TRANZAKCII.
SAMO SLED NIAKOLKO MESECA VSI4KI HORA SHTE IZBIAGAT OT TUK ZASHTOTO NIAMA RAZVITIE.
VZEMETE SI POUKA.
NAPRAVETE TOIA FORUM KATO HORATA.
AZ PISHA TUK SAMO ZRADI 7 4OVEKA KOITO SKORO SHTE IZ4EZNAT.

[miro]

news

Osama za prav pat publi4no po otgovornosta za 11.septemvri.


Middle East - AP
AP
Al-Jazeera Airs Videotape by Bin Laden

1 minute ago

Add to My Yahoo! Middle East - AP

CAIRO, Egypt - Osama bin Laden (news - web sites), reading a statement to the American people in a new videotape aired Friday, directly admitted for the first time that he ordered the Sept. 11 attacks and said "the best way to avoid another Manhattan" was to stop threatening Muslims' security.



It was the first footage of the al-Qaida leader to surface in more than a year. The video, broadcast on Al-Jazeera, showed bin Laden with a long gray beard, wearing traditional white robes, a turban and a golden cloak reading from papers in front of a plain, brown curtain.

There was no immediate way to authenticate the tape or say when it was made, although it did refer to next week's presidential elections in the United States.

"We decided to destroy towers in America," bin Laden said, referring to the World Trade Center.

"God knows that it had not occurred to our mind to attack the towers, but after our patience ran out and we saw the injustice and inflexibility of the American-Israeli alliance toward our people in Palestine and Lebanon, this came to my mind," he said.

He accused President Bush (news - web sites) of "misleading" the American people since the 2001 suicide airline hijackings that hit the World Trade Center and the Pentagon (news - web sites).

"Your security is not in the hands of (Democratic candidate John) Kerry or Bush or al-Qaida. Your security is in your own hands," bin Laden said.

"To the U.S. people, my talk is to you about the best way to avoid another disaster," he said. "I tell you: security is an important element of human life and free people do not give up their security."

"If Bush says we hate freedom, let him tell us why we didn't attack Sweden, for example. It is known that those who hate freedom do not have dignified souls, like those of the 19 blessed ones," he said, referring to the 19 hijackers.

"We fought you because we are free .. and want to regain freedom for our nation. As you undermine our security we undermine yours."

The image of bin Laden reading a statement was dramatically different from the few other videos of the al-Qaida leader that have emerged since the Sept. 11 attacks.

In the last videotape, issued Sept. 10, 2003, bin Laden is seen walking through rocky terrain with his top deputy Ayman al-Zawahri, both carrying automatic rifles. In a taped message issued at the same time, bin Laden praises the "great damage to the enemy" on Sept. 11 and mentions five hijackers by name.

In December 2001, the Pentagon released a videotape in which bin Laden is shown at a dinner with associates in Afghanistan (news - web sites) on Nov. 9, 2001, saying the destruction of the Sept. 11 attacks exceeded even his "optimistic" calculations.

But in none of his previous messages, audio or video, did bin Laden directly state that he ordered the attacks.

The last audiotape purportedly from bin Laden came in April. The speaker on the tape, which CIA (news - web sites) analysts said likely was the al-Qaida leader, offered a truce to European nations if they pull troops out of Muslim countries. The tape referred to the March 22 assassination by Israel of Hamas founder Sheik Ahmed Yassin.

Al-Zawahri, bin Laden's Egyptian deputy, has spoken on three recent audiotapes that emerged on June 11, Sept. 9 and Oct. 1 this year. In the latest, he called on young Muslims to strike the United States and its allies.

[koko]

za Petar

Petar izviniavai ne sam ti prochel posta.
Shtom zatvaria tuk e veroiatno da vidim 1.29+ drugata sedmica
Za bas niamam nishto na protiv no neka parvo da si polu4ish toia i togava shte pravim novi
Priaten uikend o4akvam s netarpenie da se zapoznaem

[top40]

za Petar

zasto ne zatvaria pazara? da ne bi amer. da sa smenili vremeto?