Валутна търговия - FOREX - АРХИВ

[supertrader]

Коко

Все още си няма хубав по-тесен канал било надолу или нагоре , затова го чакам и тогава настъпва момента , търпение само , той пазара през повечето време си стои на място т.е. движи се в по-тесен канал.Тези много фигури дето се пишат за късметлиите те да ги хванат.Успех , и пак ще си забръмчи в канал , въпрос на време е.

[Borislav Kostov]

Нов FOREX анализ

Прочетохте ли го аматьорчета ? А Караиванов прочете ли го?

Успех на всички

[Martin]

Margin

Здравейте,
в oanda може да си избираш сам с какъв ливъридж да играеш - от 10:1 до 50:1. Чудя се ако имаш по-голям ливъридж дали ти взема /респ. дава/ по-голям суап за отворените позиции в края на деня. Според мен да, защото при 50:1 заемаш по-голяма част от капитала и участваш с по-малко собствени пари отколкото при 10:1 и следователно лихвата която ти начисляват в края на деня би трябвало да е по-голяма. Ако това е така - може да се използва един вид оптимизиране на печалбата - ако си long да речем в gbp/jpy си слагаш ливъридж 50:1, а ако си short - 10:1.
Коко, ти какво мислиш по въпроса? Знам, че когато отваряш позиции вземаш впредвид суапа.

[Borislav Kostov]

Нов FOREX анализ

Daily Forex Forecasts 21-mar-2005 09:00GMT www.iforex.org

[al.]

нефтът

Эксперты МВФ считают, что мировые цены на нефть сохранятся на высоком уровне еще на протяжении как минимум двух лет из-за большого спроса и ограниченных поставок. Об этом заявил директор-распорядитель фонда Родриго Рато. "Нам следует знать, что в течение ближайших двух лет цены на нефть, возможно, будут оставаться высокими из-за давления спроса, хотя, возможно, и не на нынешнем уровне. Безусловно, спрос на нефть в мире очень большой - в том числе, из-за явных ограничений поставок", - сказал Рато
Тем временем, по словам министра нефти и газа Саудовской Аравии Али аль-Наими, президент ОПЕК уже начал обсуждение с другими членами картеля сроков увеличения объемов добычи еще на 500.000 баррелей в сутки. Он также сказал, что Саудовская Аравия предпринимает решительные шаги, чтобы увеличить производственные мощности к 2009 году до 12.5 миллиона баррелей в сутки с нынешнего уровня 11 миллионов баррелей в сутки.
Цена фьючерсов на апрель на нефть WTI на NYMEX 18 марта поднялась на $0.32 - до $56.72 за баррель, что стало рекордной ценой закрытия. Нефть дорожает в связи с обеспокоенностью участников рынка по поводу того, что спрос растет в большей степени, чем предложение сырья. Большинство аналитиков прогнозирует рост котировок на нефть на начавшейся неделе. Сегодня утром на электронных торгах нефть находится в районе $56.70 за баррель.

Мировые цены на нефть, достигшие на прошлой неделе рекордных отметок, во втором квартале могут упасть, так как предложение превысит спрос на 2,5 млн. баррелей в день, заявил министр нефти Индонезии и экс-глава ОПЕК Пурномо Юсгианторо. По его мнению, ОПЕК "в достаточной мере отреагировала" на рост цен. "Во втором квартале будет перепроизводство в объеме до 2,5 млн. баррелей в день, так как ОПЕК увеличивала квоты тогда, когда, как ожидается, спрос упадет", - сказал он.



Нефть на американских торгах подешевела в понедельник после того, как Саудовская Аравия заявила, что члены ОПЕК могут в любой момент увеличить поставки нефти на рынок. По мнению экспертов, подорожание доллара в понедельник также способствовало росту цен на нефть. "Укрепление доллара и ожидающееся повышение ставки ФРС, возможно, способствовали подъему нефтяного рынка", - отметил вице-президент подразделения управления рисками в энергетическом секторе компании Fimat USA Майк Фицпатрик. Цена фьючерсов на апрель на нефть WTI на NYMEX 21 марта снизилась на $0.10 - до $56.62 за баррель. Майские контракты выросли на $0.22 до $57.46 за баррель. Сегодня утром нефть упала на $0.24 по сравнению с итоговой котировкой понедельника и составляет $57.22 за баррель. Ввоз нефти в КНР снизился на 1.6% в феврале по сравнению с показателем прошлого года, в январе был на 24% ниже уровня 2004 года. При этом аналитики отмечают, что сокращение китайского импорта будет носить кратковременный характер, а потребление топлива в стране будет расти.

[taty]

fx

Chicago,каква ти целта на cad/chf

[chicago]

fx

eur/chf - 1.5520 - sell
cad/chf - 0.9730 - sell
eur/aud - 1.6740 - buy
eur/usd and usd/jpy - без промяна от последните ми постинги - цели 1.1600 и 107.40/109/110
Желая успех на всички!

[SwinG]

Добрo утро на всички.

денят започна добре за мен. Имам изпъленен лимит buy при aud/usd от 1,7844 току що затворен на малък профит. Кабела от вчера още го стискам.
Успех на всички!

[JEFF]

Добро утро на всички.

Днес май ще бъде интересно затворих си късия канадец от вчера +30 пипса и късите CHF +10 пипса.Мисля ,че днес е идеален ден за скалпинг - поне в близките няколко часа

[JHB]

Добро утро на всички.

Мисля днес да си купя от евтиното евро около 1.30 след ФЕДа за поне 1.33

[l0]

Добро утро на всички.

Посоката е ясна - 1,38 през 1,26, така че умната ...
Решението за лихвата?: не разчитайте много на него - реакцията на "пазара" може да бъде обратна на очакванията...
Успех.

[dinobot]

interesna statija za dolara

2005-03-22 02:28:00-05:00
ASIA FX: US Dollar Still Firm But Off Early High Before FOMC

SINGAPORE, Mar. 22 (MktNews) - The US dollar eased from its early
highs but retained a firm tone against major currencies in Asia as
market players covered short positions ahead of the US Federal Open
Market Committee meeting later Tuesday.

"The US dollar continued to strengthen broadly against the majors
on momentum trades resulting from position squaring, heading into key
events such as the FOMC meeting and PPI and CPI (tomorrow)," Singapore's
United Overseas Bank said.

Dealers said while the market has generally priced in a 25
basis-point increase in the key Fed funds rate target, market
participants are more concerned about whether the Fed would make any
change in its accompanying statement, particularly in its reference to
"measured" pace of tightening.

"Since it is widely anticipated that the FOMC will hike the target
funds rate by 25bps to 2.75% today, the focus will essentially be on the
text, primarily on the inflation backdrop statements and the 'measured'
language," UOB said.

In its preview of the FOMC meeting, JPMorgan Chase Bank said there
is an "even chance" that the term "measured" may be left out in the Fed
statement, paving the way for more aggressive rate increases in the
future.

"The gradualist Fed has been based on the notion that core
inflation remains well contained, but this premise is now being
challenged by economic events," including intensifying cost pressures,
JPMorgan said.

Prior to the Fed decision, the US producer price index is due to be
released, which could give market watchers an indication of what kind of
inflationary pressures the US economy is facing.

"Today's release of the February PPI becomes extremely important in
the context of Fed's statement today," UBS AG said in a market note.

The median estimate in a Market News International survey of
economists looked for PPI to rise by 0.3% on the month, with the core
(ex-food and energy) rising 0.2%.

With such event risks just ahead, the Asian market took a cautious
tone in the Tuesday session, keeping the US dollar on a firm footing
within the range it had been trading since the New York session.

Dollar-yen opened at Y105.18 and then rose to Y105.28, before
easing back to Y105.05, the lower end of its Y150.00-Y150.50 overnight
range. The pair stayed supported above Y105.00 through the day though
better bids were seen building around Y104.80. On the upside, dollar-yen
still faces immediate resistance at Y105.50 and Y105.80 subsequently.

The euro was initially hemmed in a tight $1.3155-$1.3170 range but
briefly broke out to post a $1.3173 high before coming back down. While
bids earlier seen below $1.3140 kept the euro-dollar pair afloat, offers
said to be sitting near $1.3180 and $1.3200 capped the upside.
Euro-dollar support was also aided by euro-yen's earlier gains above
Y138.50, though this also soon gave way as the cross deflated to
Y138.35. The euro-dollar pair's overnight close under $1.3200 has also
exposed it to a possible move lower to target $1.3080, dealers said.

At 2:50 p.m. Singapore time, dollar-yen was trading at Y105.08
after easing from its early high of Y105.28 but unchanged from the late
New York level, while euro-yen was at Y138.34 compared with Y138.42
overnight. The euro-dollar pair was at $1.3165 compared with the late
New York quote of $1.3173.

Other Asian currencies also weakened on the broad dollar strength,
particularly the Korean won and the Taiwan dollar, as regional stock
markets continued to be pressured by expectations of higher US rates and
persistently high oil prices.

The dollar-won pair rose to krw1014.85 earlier after the release of
fourth quarter GDP data, which showed South Korea's economy grew 3.3%
year-on-year, slightly below market expectations of a 3.6% expansion.
Full-year 2004 GDP rose 4.6% vs 3.1% in 2003 and the Bank of Korea said
the economy is unlikely to deteriorate this year.

Against the Taiwan dollar, the greenback topped out at twd31.42
earlier as the domestic stock market retreated while concerns over
relations with China also dented investor sentiment.

Overnight, crude oil futures prices for the April delivery settled
at $56.62, down 10 cents after trading as high as $57.12 a barrel on the
New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract, which expired Monday, had
reached an all-time high of $57.60 in intraday trading last Thursday,
while the highest-ever closing price was Friday's $56.42.


Dollar Rates in Asian Trade:

Eur-Dlr Dlr-Yen Eur-Yen Stg-Dlr Dlr-Swiss
2:45 p.m. 1.3165 105.08 138.34 1.8973 1.1788
1:15 p.m. 1.3163 105.15 138.40 1.8968 1.1787
11:30 a.m. 1.3170 105.08 138.39 1.8976 1.1783
9:45 a.m. 1.3172 105.13 138.47 1.8971 1.1781
8:15 a.m. Sing 1.3162 105.24 138.51 1.8954 1.1789
3:12 p.m NY 1.3173 105.08 138.42 1.8990 1.1774

Provided by MarketNews International www.marketnews.com



:]

[bfx]

za dolara

da v 21:15

[nhg]

za dolara

днес ли излиза решението на ФЕД за лихвата в САЩ?

[Kenneth Rogoff]

interesna statija za dolara

Loving America’s Deficits
by Kenneth Rogoff

With the weak dollar hanging like the sword of Damocles over the global economy, almost everyone laments America’s spendthrift habits. But did it ever occur to anybody how hard Americans must work to make everyone else look good?

Thanks to America’s gaping trade deficits, the biggest headache of every developing country finance minister nowadays is trying to keep his or her country’s currency from going up too fast against the dollar. When was the last time that happened? Chronic debt-crisis countries from Mexico to Russia to South Korea are all fighting off capital inflows from investors looking for an exit as the dollar collapses.

Ordinarily, as the world comes out of a downturn and global interest rates rise, at least one or two emerging market countries suffers a spectacular blowup. Not likely this time, at least for the next year.

True, policy in some countries has improved markedly. Brazil and Turkey, for example, have each instituted market-friendly policies that have made their economies more flexible and growth more durable. But can the same be said for Mexico, where reform has stalled, or for Russia, where reforms have been reversed? America’s reckless deficit spending is making all their currencies look like good investments for 2005.

So non-Americans should be more appreciative of America’s deficits. Do people think it is easy for a 12-trillion-dollar economy to spend beyond its means year after year just to prop up other countries’ reputations for stability? It isn’t. Going deep into debt when you have that much money to spend takes a lot of hard work.

Start with the American consumer, who consumes everything on earth (helping the United States eat up 25% of world oil production) but saves essentially nothing. Thanks to America’s gold-plated financial system, its consumers can buy fancy cars with almost no down payment. They can borrow more and more each year against the value of their homes, and spend every cent. They can retire earlier and earlier on their smaller and smaller savings. It takes nerve and energy to live like that.

Of course, the US government does its share, too, and more. When President George W. Bush took office in 2001, he was staring at giant budget surpluses as far as the eye could see. It was hard work engineering a five-trillion-dollar deterioration in America’s fiscal position.

Cutting taxes was easy, but hiking spending on virtually every program involves a lot of legislation. Sure, the decision to invade Iraq was a big help in pushing the country’s finances off a cliff, but that is far from the whole story. So why is the world so ungrateful?

Maybe some Europeans and Japanese are upset that they have consistently earned such poor returns on their US investments. Part of the problem has been the sinking dollar, which makes dollar investments look bad when translated into yen or euro.

Part of the blame also lies with bad market timing. Many Europeans bought into the US stock market at its peak in 1999 and 2000, only to find themselves selling at steep discounts after the collapse of 2001.

The same happened to the Japanese in real estate. Japanese financiers bought up pricey trophy properties like Rockefeller Center in New York and the Pebble Beach Golf Club in California, and then had to sell later at rock-bottom prices. These investment failures have been great for Americans, who owe a lot less to foreigners than they would otherwise.

Unfortunately, this cannot go on forever. Foreigners are either going to start earning much better returns in the US, pushing American debt levels into unsustainable territory, or else they will pull back and invest elsewhere. Either way, the dollar collapse has to continue.

So how low can the dollar sink? By my calculations, the dollar still needs to go down another 15% if the US trade deficit is to go back towards balance. Ideally, Asian currencies would rise much more than 15% while European currencies would rise less.

Unfortunately, there is a real danger that we may see the opposite, with the euro going to $1.50 or beyond. Governments may try to resist the fall of the dollar, but in today’s world of deep and fluid capital markets, they will not succeed indefinitely, even in Asia.

Moreover, although US policy is making everyone else look good for now, things might not be so comfortable if the dollar collapse leads to skyrocketing interest rates and a sustained global slowdown. Some of the countries that look so strong today may suddenly experience the kind of financial crises that they thought they had left behind.

Even if countries avoid the immediate blow of a dollar collapse, they still have to watch for a boomerang effect. Exchange rates have a nasty habit of overshooting their equilibrium values, then knifing back on countries, especially those who have been spending too much based on inflated income valuations.

OK, so maybe it is too soon for the world to start toasting America’s insane consumption patterns. Even so, isn’t it generous of the Americans to make everyone else look so sober and frugal, if only for the moment?


Kenneth Rogoff is Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University, and was formerly chief economist at the IMF.

Copyright: Project Syndicate, January 2005. www.project-syndicate.org