NYSE&NASDAQ SYMBOLS
Това е един коментар който написах вчера в един друг форум. Ще се радвам ако ви бъде от полза. Късмет!
My take is that you are right that something is about to pop.
However we should be aware that tops formation is a relatively
prolonged process unlike bottoms formation. This is because of human
psychology and the general idea that the prime trend of the stock
market is up.
That said we are really very extended to the upside given the huge
drop of the VIX from 40 to nearly 20 (which has served as a bottom
for the VIX since the beginning of the current bear market). In view
of the huge resistance looming at 945-965 (this is the neckline of
the H&S formation that goes back to 1995) I think that the market is
about to take a serious test. My take is that this resistance which
has capped 3 rally attempts so far since the bottom of July 2002 will
remain intact again because the market lacks the sentiment fuel (i.e.
more fear as indicated by the VIX) to break higher - as you know a
bull market climbs a wall of worry and unfortunately we don"t have
that worry now as investors don"t even see a single reason to sell.
This makes the bulls the majority at risk and when the first spark of
fear occurs, the tide will turn in the opposite direction.
However I think we shall not see a top before Friday as expiration
weeks are usually flat to up, even in a bear market. But May 16th is
a good candidate...
Това е един коментар който написах вчера в един друг форум. Ще се радвам ако ви бъде от полза. Късмет!
My take is that you are right that something is about to pop.
However we should be aware that tops formation is a relatively
prolonged process unlike bottoms formation. This is because of human
psychology and the general idea that the prime trend of the stock
market is up.
That said we are really very extended to the upside given the huge
drop of the VIX from 40 to nearly 20 (which has served as a bottom
for the VIX since the beginning of the current bear market). In view
of the huge resistance looming at 945-965 (this is the neckline of
the H&S formation that goes back to 1995) I think that the market is
about to take a serious test. My take is that this resistance which
has capped 3 rally attempts so far since the bottom of July 2002 will
remain intact again because the market lacks the sentiment fuel (i.e.
more fear as indicated by the VIX) to break higher - as you know a
bull market climbs a wall of worry and unfortunately we don"t have
that worry now as investors don"t even see a single reason to sell.
This makes the bulls the majority at risk and when the first spark of
fear occurs, the tide will turn in the opposite direction.
However I think we shall not see a top before Friday as expiration
weeks are usually flat to up, even in a bear market. But May 16th is
a good candidate...
))
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