Първоначално изпратено от Iv_max
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Many professional portfolio managers practice intentional market timing because it’s how they appear smart to their clients and potential clients–and justify their high fees. I’ve sat on many panels during industry conferences where portfolio managers gloat over how they predicted a market crash, or a jump in interest rates, or the fall in gold prices, etc.
What these gurus fail to mention (and what I point out) is that most of them were not able to repeat their good fortune. They failed to get their clients back into markets before the recovery and couldn’t repeat the process consistently.
Practically every portfolio manager who guessed right on the downside during the financial crisis and missed the upside has the same excuse, “We were being conservative.” I don’t buy it. Being right only half the time is not successful market timing. Being conservative is a poor excuse for being wrong.
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