Епицентъра на екшъна тази седмица не беше Фед, а ЯЦБ.
The Bank of Japan had announced that it would widen the band in which it would allow the 10-year JGB yield to move around its target of zero. Now, the effective maximum yield is 0.2 per cent, not 0.1 per cent.
Ulrich Leuchtmann, FX стратег:
The big question now is: can and will speculative pressure arise to counteract this BoJ measure? If the JGB market were to function as a foreign exchange market, the matter would be clear. Once the BoJ kicks in, a speculative attack would come as sure as the name in the church. But the bond market simply functions differently. My colleagues in FI analysis are less critical of the BoJ’s decision and even find words of praise. They don’t expect a speculative attack.
Their argument is that, unlike in the foreign exchange market, the BoJ not only has its credibility as a weapon. They also have considerable (almost unlimited) buying potential — compared to the finite JGB volume. This is sufficiently dissuasive and should prevent speculative attacks on the new 0.2% threshold. As a result, the BoJ was able to take the liberty of what would have been interpreted as a retreat in the currency market and would have triggered an attack. The foreign exchange market can drive such attacks with volumes that can cause any central bank intervention to fail. The bond market does not have this firepower. In the end, a central bank that operates QE has the longest leverage.
I admit, as an old currency man, I’m still nervous.
The Bank of Japan had announced that it would widen the band in which it would allow the 10-year JGB yield to move around its target of zero. Now, the effective maximum yield is 0.2 per cent, not 0.1 per cent.
Ulrich Leuchtmann, FX стратег:
The big question now is: can and will speculative pressure arise to counteract this BoJ measure? If the JGB market were to function as a foreign exchange market, the matter would be clear. Once the BoJ kicks in, a speculative attack would come as sure as the name in the church. But the bond market simply functions differently. My colleagues in FI analysis are less critical of the BoJ’s decision and even find words of praise. They don’t expect a speculative attack.
Their argument is that, unlike in the foreign exchange market, the BoJ not only has its credibility as a weapon. They also have considerable (almost unlimited) buying potential — compared to the finite JGB volume. This is sufficiently dissuasive and should prevent speculative attacks on the new 0.2% threshold. As a result, the BoJ was able to take the liberty of what would have been interpreted as a retreat in the currency market and would have triggered an attack. The foreign exchange market can drive such attacks with volumes that can cause any central bank intervention to fail. The bond market does not have this firepower. In the end, a central bank that operates QE has the longest leverage.
I admit, as an old currency man, I’m still nervous.
Коментар