Започна ли световна икономическа криза?

[levi_desni]

Кризи-дългове. Страшно. И все пак.
Вчера се запитах: А защо маса правителства допускат толкова дълбоко задлъжняване?
И тутакси се яви абсурден образ. Представете си, балон /икономиката/. Тази икономика, сили като материалното производство и паричната маса се опитват да я раздуят. И нещо би трябвало да я удържа в цялост, да не позволява да се накъса на парчета и да се разлети наляво-надясно. В тази картинка, задлъжняването се явява като предпазен клапан. Нещо като да работи, образувайки вътрешен вакуум. Така, при ограничена еластичност в лицето на пазарни взаимовръзки, се създава нещо, което никой друг не би желал да има. Т.е., един вид, омега-стратегия: Ако искаш да запазиш едно перце във въздуха, да не отлети при комшиите, вместо да го връзваш с конец, му пускаш насрещен вятър. Е, кой би искал да купи - примерно, макар да е краен примерът - американската икономика като цяло при положение, че е така натоварена с дългове? Не за 50 трилиона, за 50милиарда няма да я искат с такъв баланс. Извратено обаче, работи. При къде по-ниски степени задлъжняване, Япония и Китай, са станали основни външни кредитори. Щото са вярвали, че има далавера. И е вярно само че, далавера вътре в САЩ, в сравнение с вътрешни компании. Вероятно, тогава са се замисляли, какво ще е "да купиш цялата Америка". Днес, едва ли го правят. Представете си ги като плувци: Плувец може да натовари върху себе си само ограничена тежест, после сам потъва. Е, натоварили са се, и вече няма нужда. Изнесли са маса производства навън, Америка не може да си купува сама своите продукти, затова внася от Китай /примерно/, гащи.
И става "наша, напук на всичко".
АКО същата тази Америка се издължи по всички дългове /навън, не към ФЕД/ то, всяка нова печалба става в пъти по-привлекателна, и пак светът ще почне да се натиска да ги изкупи.
Какво следва от всичко това извратено разбиране ли?
Как да ви кажа, допускам много плавно спускане и на Китай в подобна дългова спирала. Вероятно, и до нови Дълбини.

[Black and white cat-foot]

как китайските банки крият около 2 трилиона заеми, всички без провизии
http://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-b...ans-1481130392

последните два параграфа цепят мрака

The lender isn’t worried about its funding for the apartment complex in Haimen or the industrial park in Nanjing, according to people close to the bank. The reason: Whether the projects make economic sense or not, bank officials expect to be repaid because of the projects’ government ties.

“All banks are trying to move [loans] off balance sheets,” said an official at Bank of Nanjing, nodding to a common belief in China that Beijing always will stand behind the country’s banks. “The only risk we have is sovereign risk.”

[Jorkata]

Догодина ще се случват някакви интересни работи...

[Black and white cat-foot]

[supertrader]

Мълчат като ... а потреблението се е свило до дупка, те постоянно се мъчат да съборят китайците. Китай е инвестиционна икономика и тя сама ще цъфне в един момент, но те сън не спят да мислят как са я съборят че много ги е страх че никога няма да падне тази пирамида. Направиха шоу което да изправи на всички косите и сега мълчание.

[mauricio84]

Ха ха започна !!!!
Продадохте ли вече акциите и борсовите индекси или още се чудите???

[Dali]

Сега Доналд Тръмп ще оправи всичко и няма да има криза никъде...

[Black and white cat-foot]

вчера попаднах на нещо в нета което си го мисля вече от месеци, нещо което съм виждал вече в българия и нещо което видях че се е случвало след първата световна. нещо което според мен тепърва предстои да се случи в световен мащаб

3:10-6:09
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P4_1pwsm5LY

[Black and white cat-foot]

pied pipers?! по тази аналогия инвеститорите са плъховете в приказката

[Alee]

Финала на шоуто ще е когато и американските бондове станат отрицателни.

За мен шоуто по света тепърва започва.



Think Brexit is over? It hasn't even started

In the wake of Brexit – the latest chapter in the rolling financial crisis – and as politicians squabbled and jostled for position, it's no surprise that central banks have felt the urge to roll out fresh promises of more stimulus.

It culminated with the Bank of England's Mark Carney on Thursday night, who said that a deteriorating economic outlook means "some monetary policy easing will likely be needed over the summer".

The Pied Pipers of the markets – the central banks – continue to weave their hypnotic spell on investors the world round. Most of us don't want to buy bonds at real yields of not much more than zero, or plough money into an expensive property or stocks at stretched valuations and with stagnant earnings, but we do.

As former Citigroup chairman Chuck Prince infamously said in July 2007: "As long as the music is playing, you've got to get up and dance," before fatefully adding: "We're still dancing."

It's easy to paint Prince as a fool, but nine years later here we are: still dancing.

Brexit has only intensified the problem. Negatively-yielding government debt has surged by more than a trillion dollars since the end of May to US$11.7 trillion. Fixed income markets now suggest that the US Federal Reserve probably won't be raising rates this year or the next, extending any kind of "normalisation" process further and further into the future. The RBA is considered a sure bet to drop rates in August. The Bank of Japan is expected to announce more stimulus following the Brexit result as a stronger yen once again weighs on its economy.

"In such a situation, the drive for yield has never been stronger, which has seen people piling into dip-buying with little thought for the fundamental picture," pointed out Angus Nicholson of IG Markets this week.

Indeed, investors are even wondering whether this jolly old Brexit barney has turned out to be much ado about nothing. After all sharemarkets in the UK, the US and our own have either largely or completely recovered their post-referendum losses.

It's way too early to make any judgements of this kind.

"Some significant opportunities will arise, but also significant risks. After all, with this vote the UK has effectively also indicated they are for protectionism and against globalisation," Deltec International chief investment officer Atul Lele says. "Not since the Smoot-Hawley Act, which arguably extended the Great Depression, can I recall in history such a legislated event of this nature."

"We know that there has been a depth charge, and we are waiting to see if any bodies are floating to the surface," AXA Investment Management's Mark Tinker says. "This is a key reason why investors other than deep value buyers are likely to remain on the sidelines for a while yet. This may take a few weeks, but in the absence of any bodies, I would expect some value buying to appear."

Tinker points out that the lessons from events such as the global financial crisis and, more recently, the Chinese sharemarket meltdown in August are that policy responses following the initial shock can turn a bad situation into something much worse.

In the same way, while UK citizens have voted in favour of a Brexit, the form it takes will dictate whether Britain experiences a full-blown recession, or just a period of mildly weaker growth.

"How the EU policymakers respond to the referendum is thus extremely important to investors," Tinker says. "Will they be very tough, or more pragmatic?"

Unfortunately, this depends on politics, something that the market struggles to incorporate into pricing, but generally evolves into binary win/lose bets ahead of key events – such as the result of the UK conservative party leadership vote on September 9.

"What is clear is that the political outcome will dictate how the UK negotiates its Brexit," Alberto Gallo of Algebris Investments says.

Gallo is optimistic on a "soft" exit. Like a number of other observers, he also points out that European politicians have a habit of ignoring referendum results, or demanding do-overs. Gallo counts six such incidences, stretching from the Danish voting against the Maastricht Treaty in 1992 before being made to vote again, to a similar fate for Irish voters who said "no" to the Lisbon Treaty in 2008, while the Greeks voted against the Euro bailout in 2015 but were ignored.

It's hard to imagine a similar situation now, particularly when you consider that the only two referendums which were accepted by policy makers both related to "no" votes on whether to join the EU: Denmark in 2000, and Sweden in 2003.

Politicians have proved happy to thumb their noses at voters on points of law, but not on simple "in or out" decisions.

Strap in, this ride is just beginning.

[d333]

Финала на шоуто ще е когато и американските бондове станат отрицателни.

[Black and white cat-foot]

[Black and white cat-foot]

Negative-yield debt breaks $10tn level for first time

http://webcache.googleusercontent.co...&ct=clnk&gl=us

[Black and white cat-foot]

уууупс

[Black and white cat-foot]

Jeremy He started pouring his savings into commodities last month after losing money in China’s stock rout and deciding that returns from his WMPs were too low. The 25-year-old employee at a multinational trade company in Shanghai set up a joint account with his friend to trade futures on rebar, coal and cotton, making as much as 150 percent before prices started falling at the end of last month.
"I’m pretty bored at work, so I trade commodities futures for some excitement,’’ said He, whose account swelled to as much as 700,000 yuan ($107,443) before sliding back to 400,000 yuan at the end of April. “Because I’m making investments with my friend, we can comfort each other when we are making a loss.’’

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...eling-in-china