И който не разбира или го мързи- https://bigserge-substack-com.translate.goo...;_x_tr_pto=wapp на български
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Анализ -
https://bigserge.substack.com/p/special-mil...peration-season
Special Military Operation, Season 2 Things are starting to heat up.
September 9 - 11 will go down in history as a period of great significance in the Russo-Ukrainian war. Both belligerent parties crossed very important thresholds, which taken together suggest that the war is entering a new phase. On the 9th and 10th, Ukraine achieved its first concrete success of the war by retaking all the Russian-held territory in Kharkov Oblast west of the Oskil river, including the western bank of Kupyansk and the transit node of Izyum.
Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin convened an emergency meeting of his national security council, which precipitated Russia's own escalation on the 11th, when Ukrainian infrastructure was at long last subject to attack, plunging much of the country into darkness.
It seems clear that the war is entering a new phase, and it seems highly likely that both parties will attempt to take decisive action in the near feature. For now, let's try to parse through the developments of the past week and get a handle on where the war is heading.
The Kharkov Counteroffensive
At the risk of sounding very pedantic, Ukraine's counteroffensive in eastern Kharkov Oblast is an excellent demonstration of the difficulties in evaluating military operations. Everyone agrees on the basic geography of what has happened: Ukraine cleared everything west of the Oskil river of Russian forces. Nobody agrees on what this means, however. I have seen all of the following interpretations posited - note, people reached all of these conclusions from the same set of data:- Russia has drawn Ukraine into a trap and will soon counterattack
- Russia voluntarily withdrew from Kharkov to prioritize other fronts
- Russia drew the Ukrainians out to hit them with artillery
- Russia suffered a massive intelligence failure and did not see or respond to Ukraine's offensive
- Russia suffered a defeat in battle and was forced to retreat
The first thing we want to note is that the disparity of forces on this front was absolutely laughable. Ukraine assembled a strike group of at least five full brigades, and aimed at a line of contact which had no Russian regular troops at all. The Russian front-line defenses in the region were manned by allied donbas militia and national guardsmen. It seems there was a lone Battalion Tactical Group (BTG) in Izyum, but little else.
It is undeniable, even for Ukrainians celebrating the advance, that Kharkov oblast had been almost completely hollowed out of Russian troops, leaving little more than a screening force. Two important things flow from this. First, that the Ukrainian shock group was in most places advancing against virtually nonexistent resistance. Secondly, more ominously for Ukraine, the low quality units left behind for screening purposes were able to put up good resistance against the Ukrainians - the Rosgvardiya men in Balakliya held out tenaciously for several days before evacuating through a corridor.
In my previous analysis, conducted while the Ukrainian counteroffensive was just beginning to develop, I noted two important things about the shape of the battlefield.- I argued that Ukraine would be unable to push across the Oskil and properly exploit their offensive.
- I noted that Ukraine was making rapid advances against thinly manned, hollowed out portions of the front, and that Russia had committed very little to the battle.
This was not an operational trap by Russia, but neither was it a victory in battle for Ukraine - for the simple reason that there was not much of a battle at all. Russia had already hollowed out these positions, and withdrew the remaining screening forces very quickly. Ukraine covered a lot of ground, but were unable to destroy any Russian units, because there really weren't any there.
It would be silly to try to talk the Ukrainian side out of their excitement right now. Credit where credit is due, they did manage to put together a good sized shock group, aim it at a weak portion of the front, and regain a good bit of ground. Considering the abject lack of successes for Ukraine in this war, they are rightfully trying to eke every last bit of morale and propaganda out of this.
I do not, however, believe that the territorial losses in Kharkov in any way change the ultimate calculus of the war. Russia hollowed out this front and surrendered ground, but they were able to maul the Ukrainian forces as they advanced with relentless artillery and airstrikes. Ukrainian channels widely report overflowing hospitals. The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed 4,000 killed and 8,000 wounded for Ukraine during their advance - I believe this is high, but even if we reduce the numbers by 50% (leaving us with 6,000 total casualties, reasonable given how much ordnance Russia discharged) it is very clear that the loss ratios in this operation were stacked badly against Ukraine, as they always are.
Momentum
As I predicted in my last piece, Ukraine has so far been unable to exploit their offensive by reaching the operational depth. They have been totally unable to project forces across the Oskil River. With the advance eastward firmly culminated, they are seeking to maintain their momentum, or at least the appearance of it.
Ukraine's successful advance in Kharkov Oblast has been augmented with a blitz of fakery and propaganda designed to simulate a total shift in strategic momentum. These include fakes related to Russian domestic politics, such as fabricated calls for Putin's impeachment, and battlefield misinformation, like claims that the Ukrainian Army has breached the borders of the LNR or stormed Donetsk City. They have also circulated out of context videos (the most popular one shows a Russian vehicle depot in Crimea) purporting to show that the Russians abandoned hundreds of vehicles in Izyum.
The fakery is not important. Ukraine will, however, also attempt to maintain battlefield momentum by piggybacking on the Kharkov operation with additional counteroffensives. They continue to attempt to cross the Donets River in force to storm Lyman, unsuccessfully. They also continue their attacks in the Kherson direction, making little progress and taking high casualties.
The most important development, however, is the claim that a second Ukrainian shock group has been assembled in Zaparozhia. This is an area where the geography actually would allow Ukraine to achieve operational exploitation. A successful drive towards Melitopol or Mariupol would compromise the land bridge to Crimea and threaten to crumble Russia's entire position in the south.
Unlike Kharkov, however, this is not a hollowed out portion of the front. The newly formed Russian 3rd Corps is concentrated in the south, and Russian convoys have been spotted recently moving through the Mariupol region. Ukraine may very well attempt yet another offensive operation in this direction, but given the strength of the Russian grouping here the results will be more like Kherson than Kharkov.
Sovereignty
During the opening months of the war, I argued on Twitter that massed offensives are difficult, and that Ukraine had not yet shown the organizational ability to organize an operational higher than the brigade level. All the attacking action that we saw from Ukraine early on took the form of single brigade - or more often, single battalion - commanders taking initiative.
Well, lo and behold, Ukraine managed to field at least two (Kherson, Kharkov) and perhaps three (Zaporizhia) multi-brigade shock groups, and launch coordinated operations. This was made possible because Ukraine is a pseudo-state, which is supplied, financed, and increasingly managed by NATO. Western agencies cannot resist bragging - Britain identified itself as the party responsible for planning and organizing the Kherson operation, while the USA claims credit for the more successful Kharkov attack.
It is difficult to overstate the extent to which Ukraine is sustained solely by the west. Ukrainian soldiers are trained by NATO officers, armed with NATO weapons, accompanied in the field by NATO soldiers foreign volunteers, and the Ukrainian pseudo-state is kept running by cash injections from the west. Videos from the Kharkov front abound with English speaking soldiers and foreign weapons.
The point isn't just to point out, yet again, that Ukraine is a failed state - a corpse that is given the illusion of life by outside actors moving its limbs. The point is that Russia understands this and correctly understands itself to be in a civilizational collision with the west. To that end, we must understand that Russian escalation is underway, and think about what that means.
<h3 class="header-with-anchor-widget">Escalation and Mobilization</h3>
By this point, the idea that Russia needs to mobilize has become a tired old meme, cКоментар
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И тази опорка пращай на ПутлерПървоначално изпратено от Кисимов Разгледай мнение
Да заяви: "Продължаваме операцията и армията ще си стои в русия, защото е по-комфортно"
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дека е арменеца ве? Да не са го взели на фронта. Страната му пак я бомбят, а даже и не се оплаква. Няма ли си слага арменското знаме?
Дека са бг лицемерите ака демоНкраДци закичили се со укроФАШИСТКОТО знаме?
Нещастните арменци не заслужават ли подкрепаНямам доверие в НИЩО и НИКОЙКоментар
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Нахождение на российской территории гораздо комфортнее для армии: https://aftershock.news/?q=node/1154002Коментар
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Новата преговорна позиция на Украйна – кошмар за Кремъл
Членство в НАТО, изтегляне на Русия до границите преди инвазията от 2014 г., репарации
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Европа я озъбиха при всички положения, откъде ги изкопаха толкова алхимици..Коментар
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Най-добре се смее този, който се смее последен.Коментар
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Зеленски да прескочи до Москва, да си поговори с другия как ще я карат..Коментар
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Браво беПървоначално изпратено от Кисимов Разгледай мнение Веднага пращай тази опорка на Путлер, за да оправдае провала на "военната операция"
Да заяви: "Прекратихме операцията, за да не плащаме пенсии на Украинците"
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Неговите записи са с руснаци... (пак криво сте разбрали, или нарочно криво пишетеПървоначално изпратено от DS66 Разгледай мнение
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"Всё идёт по плану. У пукина на сентябрь записана сдача Харьковской области, Херсона, Запорожской области, Луганской области и Донецка."
Зеленски е в Изюм!Коментар
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На Золкин в разпите в ютуб, доста трудно за търсене.Първоначално изпратено от satz Разгледай мнениеКоментар
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Въпреки Укро-мантрите фронтът си остава по-близо до Николаев, отколкото към Херсон, който се е озовал вкопан дълбоко в руския свят. Въпреки че ако си го искат толкова, може и да си го получат. Навремето СССР са се отказали да дебаркират в Хокайдо за да не плащат японските пенсии. https://aftershock.news/?q=node/1154093Коментар
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