Валутна търговия - FOREX - АРХИВ

[koko]

Към КОКО, или owner, или forexmasters, или...

Единственият друг ник с който съм писал тук беше преди 2 години някъде - ДИВ

[koko]

Към КОКО, или owner, или forexmasters, или...

Петре никога в инвестора не съм писал като форексмастер или оунер

[POPA]

Към КОКО, или owner, или forexmasters, или...

КОКО, не ми отговори на въпроса, кой чертае всъщност графиките, ти или аржентинеца, понеже си приличат като две капки вода? Публикуваш тези графики от месеци и никога дори не си споменавал, че не са твои.

Това почтенно ли е?

Защо оня ден обиждаш Петър, че използвал различни никове и пишел с тях из форума, дори си позволи да го наричаш "к.....", което меко казано е гнусно, а сега за 1 час те виждам, че си писал с няколко ника на различни места из нета?

[Пореден]

EUR/USD

Добра вечер,Колеги.
Много започна да ми прилича,че правим триъгълник,преди слизането за ново дъно.
http://www.forex-freezone.com/forum/....php?p=182#182

[безимен]

...

В поста си не влагам никакъв фундамент, само хвърлям няколко числа, които са получени от прилагане на системи, които смятам да използвам по- нататък и за разработване на които съм вложил доста труд. Не подлагам на съмнение анализаторските умения на авторите на публикацията /Хартли и Райсевик/ - те предлагат свои методи за анализ...
...аз прочитам и вземам решението си. Дано не объркам прогнозите на никого, но то, във всеки случай, около 50% ще са в другата посока...

[supertrader]

безимен

И я кажи конкретно каква ти е идеята , паунда какви са му шансовете да прабие пресния връх от съвсем скоро 1.76 , при евро паунд ми се привижда едно завиване вече и да си коригира поскъпването , но все пак имаме само един бар в тази посока на голяма графика а теоретиците казватче предпазливите влизат във втория , страхливите в третия и т.н.т , първия бил за смелчаците.Себе си не съм вписал в никоя група защото си стоя там от незнам колко барове и в двете посоки :-)))).Мисля че се заформя реиндж от 2-3 фигури , за какво им е на фед да купуват долара на китайците , натиска реално ще дойде към края на месеца от това че освободиха юана и няма да е рязък защото ще го движат в коридор по непазарни правила , те му викат коридор аз разбирам линия.Това трябва да е защото четем различни книги за пазара от тези дето ги четат от фед , а тази китайската не сме я чели обещават да е проста книга - лесна.И ако е така за какво са им тия долари освен ако не са решили да ги купуват до 1.13 и после да си ги стискат вовеки.

[Новия]

Opening

Tova ideq za targyvane li e za6toto sam kas v kabela i ne mi se zatvarq

[koko]

Opening

кабел 7411 евро 2067

[PPP]

Opening

А извинявам се, отвориха. Кабела е с 30 пипса нагоре, еврото с 10.
Успех

[безимен]

...

Опитвам да приложа на практика моделът на Хартли и системата "Трите стъпки", която си е една разновидност на споменатия модел, които предлагат начин за изчисление на таргета след завършване на последната - трета вълна от поредицата:

1. Най- близо като конфигурация това е възможно да се приложи /според мен/ към EUR/GBP. Ако приемем, че на дневна граф. върхът на трета вълна е завършен /0,6989 – по тази система върхът трябваше да го търсим с около 50 пипса по- долу!/, тогава очакваният таргет при възстановяване от 61,8%, е около 0,6897 , но /СЛЕД КОРЕКЦИЯ/ , може да се очаква отблъскване и движението да продължи до 0,6801.

2. Направих сметката и за седмична граф. /тук, ако се изпълнят очакванията на авторите, това ще е за повече време!/на GBP/USD. Ако сравним изчислената стойност с действително получената – 1,7290 , разминаването е с около 100 пипса /но на седмична графика, предвид големите разлики, смятам системата е само насочваща, но достатъчно точна/. Таргетът се получава 1,7969 . Това са писали авторите...!

Нещата могат да се прецизират, а проверката се прави в практиката.

Успех през новата седмица!

[PPP]

Opening

Някой има ли в FXCM? Отвориха ли при вас, защото нещо при мен се бавят?

[greedy]

Trading in The Zone

Рискувам да стана досаден(
Това е от The Wall Street Journal

By JANE SPENCER
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
July 21, 2005; Page D1

People with certain kinds of brain damage may make better investment decisions. That is the conclusion of a new study offering some compelling evidence that mixing emotion with investing can lead to bad outcomes.

By linking brain science to investment behavior, researchers concluded that people with an impaired ability to experience emotions could actually make better financial decisions than other people under certain circumstances. The research is part of a fast-growing interdisciplinary field called "neuroeconomics" that explores the role biology plays in economic decision making, by combining insights from cognitive neuroscience, psychology and economics. The study was published last month in the journal Psychological Science, and was conducted by a team of researchers from Carnegie Mellon University, the Stanford Graduate School of Business and the University of Iowa.

THE PRICE OF FEAR




A new study shows people with brain damage that impaired their ability to experience emotions such as fear outperformed other people in an investment game.

• The brain-damaged participants were more willing to take risks that yielded high payoffs.

• They were less likely to react emotionally to losses.

• They finished the game with 13% more money than other players.




The 15 brain-damaged participants that were the focus of the study had normal IQs, and the areas of their brains responsible for logic and cognitive reasoning were intact. But they had lesions in the region of the brain that controls emotions, which inhibited their ability to experience basic feelings such as fear or anxiety. The lesions were due to a range of causes, including stroke and disease, but they impaired the participants' emotional functioning in a similar manner.

The study suggests the participants' lack of emotional responsiveness actually gave them an advantage when they played a simple investment game. The emotionally impaired players were more willing to take gambles that had high payoffs because they lacked fear. Players with undamaged brain wiring, however, were more cautious and reactive during the game, and wound up with less money at the end.

Some neuroscientists believe good investors may be exceptionally skilled at suppressing emotional reactions. "It's possible that people who are high-risk takers or good investors may have what you call a functional psychopathy," says Antoine Bechara, an associate professor of neurology at the University of Iowa, and a co-author of the study. "They don't react emotionally to things. Good investors can learn to control their emotions in certain ways to become like those people."

The study demonstrates how neuroeconomics can offer insight into a question that has become a growing focus of economic inquiry: Why don't people always act in their own self-interest when they make economic decisions?

Though the field is still in its infancy, researchers hope neuroeconomics could someday have dozens of real world applications -- like explaining how brain chemistry influences market phenomena such as bubble manias and investor panics. Wall Street executives already are paying attention to the findings, since it offers insight into what motivates investors.

"This branch of inquiry and economic investigation is really fortifying and buttressing our understanding of investor behavior," says David Darst, chief investment strategist in the Individual Investor Group at Morgan Stanley. "It's beginning to inform our tactical decisions."

Using sophisticated brain-imaging technology such as magnetic resonance imaging, or MRI, tests and other tools, neuroeconomists peek inside people's brains to see which regions are activated when we engage in behaviors such as evaluating risks and rewards, making choices and cooperating with other people. Neuroeconomic researchers also tap into brain activity by measuring brain chemicals and exploring how damage to specific brain regions impacts economic decision making.

Neuroeconomics grew out of a related field called behavioral economics. Behavioral economists use insights from psychology and other social sciences to explore why humans don't always behave as predictably as standard economic models suggest they should.

In the late 1990s, when the links between psychology and neurobiology were firmly established, behavioral economists began turning to neuroscientists, in addition to psychologists, for help explaining human behavior. The idea was that if brain chemistry could explain phenomena such as depression or attention deficit disorder, it might also help explain more mundane psychological functions, such as how people reach financial decisions.

Behavioral economists, like Princeton's Daniel Kahneman, who won the Nobel Prize for Economics in 2002, began teaming up with neuroscientists, like Peter Shizgal at Concordia University in Montreal. In one study, the pair used gambling games and neuroimaging techniques to look what part of the brain is triggered when people anticipate winning money. They found that monetary rewards trigger the same brain activity as good tastes, pleasant music or addictive drugs.

The 41 participants in the new study included people with and without brain damage, including a control group of participants with brain damage that didn't affect their emotional processing. Players were given $20 and asked to play a simple gambling game that involved 20 rounds of coin tosses. If they won a coin toss, they earned $2.50. If they lost the toss, they had to give up a dollar. They could choose not to play in any given round, in which case they kept their dollar.

Logic indicates that the best strategy was to take the gamble in every round of the game, since the return on a win was much higher than the potential loss, and the risk in each round was 50-50. The players with emotion-related brain damage took a more logical strategy, investing in 84% of rounds, while the nonbrain-damaged players invested in just 58% of the rounds. Emotionally impaired participants outperformed the nonbrain-damaged participants, winding up with an average of $25.70 versus $22.80 at the end of the game.

The researchers believe fear had a lot to do with the poor performance of nonbrain-damaged participants. "If you just observe these people, they know the right thing to do is invest in every single round," says Baba Shiv, an associate professor of marketing at the Stanford business school and a co-author of the study. "But when they actually get into the game, they start reacting to the outcomes of the previous rounds."

Yet emotions may play a useful role in financial decision making. While the brain-damaged players did well in the specific game in the study, they didn't generally perform well when it came to making financial decisions in the real world. Three of four of the brain-damaged players had experienced personal bankruptcy. Their inability to experience fear led to risk-seeking behavior, and their lack of emotional judgment sometimes led them to get tangled up with people who took advantage of them. Their life experience suggests emotions can play an important role in protecting our interests, even if they sometimes interfere with rational decision making.

Humans developed this fear response as a survival mechanism to protect against predators. But in a world where predators aren't lurking around every corner, this fear system can be over-sensitive, reacting to dangers that don't actually exist and pushing us toward illogical choices.

"There was no such thing as stock in the Pleistocene era," says George Loewenstein, a professor of economics at Carnegie Mellon University, and a co-author of the study. "But human beings are pathologically risk averse. A lot of the mechanisms that drive our emotions aren't really that well adapted to modern life."

[supertrader]

Trading in The Zone

Да определено и някои индикатори са на купи , но за съжаление са от рисковите , тези които държат по-дълго посоката не са дали сигнал за купуване имам в предвид само малки графики за търсене на сигнал за купуване 5м , логично при тях и възможния изход със загуба е по-близо.

[greedy]

Trading in The Zone

Днес ми е ден за психология)
Съжалявам, но ме мързи да превеждам.

Thought this may be of interest to others. Was posted on a forex related
list. I particularly like the baseball analogy.


"I often receive this kind of question from friends and peers about trading?

Q: How do you know if you system is good or not? Or,Does your system or
methods have weakness?

A: The system is yes, the system is good. And yes,the weak link of the
system is ME! Even a good system in the hands of a poor trader will not
produce good results.


The point of this is to repeat for the benefit of all, what kinds of
mistakes a trader can make that would defeat even the best of trading
systems and methods.

And I should know...I probably made every single kind of mistakes this
week....and it had nothing to do with system..The problems in trading this
past week were completely with technique and application of methods...The
weak link stuff ...ME!

In the following list, see if you are making similar mistakes and take some
time to think about and practice correcting some of the areas and tighten
them
up...Hopefull, you will do these things bnefore you have a large drawdown or
a series of blowups that will affect your p/l and make you want to question
your
system. It is alwaysd agood idea to scan your methods especially if you are
having problems, buit also just as important to do if you are doing
alright...kind of like a headcheckup!

First, here are some general cardinal rules of trading that work with any
system:

1. Never trade against the prevailing trend. We are trend-followers, not
trend setters!

2. Never trade consolidating patterns or weak thin markets...sundays,
between int'l market opens...holidays, etc.

3. Limit Losses by capping losses to a specific dollar amount or a pip
amount if you think of things in terms of pips. Setting a hard max daily
risk to a
specific maximum percentage of equity for each day of trading must be
followed. Never exceed your max loss level for any one single 24 hour
period. Some use the 2% rule. This means you could have 50 straight losses
before losing all. Some use the 1% rules, so that they have even more
"room" for mistakes without dragging the equity downn hard.

3. Never let a profitable trade turn into a bad trade...NEVER!. We all
know the mantra...Let profits run and cut losses short! This is very true.
It is
also true that the market has a certain way of "knowing" where you are
planning to take your ideal profit target...the market know! In many
instances,
you may find that the market turns just before this goal is hit. Often ,
you see only 50% of a target is filled! Sometimes less...This happens
alot.. It is the way things work out.. That is life. Be happy!
You got 50% of target. Lets say that 50% of target is right in front of
you right now! How would you handle it right now? Are you willing to take
that
and bank it? Or do you allow the trade to back right back to your entry and
still wait for something divine to happen? Do not "hope" trade your way to
ruin...Never let a profit trade work into a losing trade. Never let this
happen. Ideal 1:2 win:loss ratios are nice when they happen, but never
"force" a
trade by putting unnecessary expectations on it. Some work out to max
profits...some do not...just go for the middle foir all of them,. Middle is
good.
example: you have a target 40 pips away. Your stop is 20 away...at 20 pips
into profit, you should be thinking about banking profits and protecting
it...not just sitting waiting for it to perform to 40 pips...think about
this for a moment: if you are worried that a larger profit "might" be
possible, then simply reenter on signal...keep it simple thinking like
this...it is best.


All we have to do to make this trade a winner and keep it a winner, is to
consistently close or protect such as trade at the moment when it becomes
profitble. In this regard it is like baseball, which is a game won in
inches, not homes runs!

Imagine a batter refusing to run to first base because no home run ball was
hit. Yet, most trader do behave this way! The winning batter is satisfied
with first base runs..and will take them all day long! everyday till the
end of time. why? First base hits are are easier than homeruns for one.
And they occur more frequently...think of trading as game of inches
also...sometimes you get the homerun...but mostly just single baggers, maybe
a double..sometimes triples and on rare occasions over the wall, home runs.
Learn to fall in love with first base runs. Home runs belong to
specialists! First base runs make you a great player and make for a great
"season average"! Homerun hitters are not satisfied with first base runs as
a general character trait! (you can see this in the personality first and
then the style of play it is demonstrated) The worst enemy of a trader is to
have a stubborn big hitter ego. Big hitters get easily frustrated and
cannot be satisfied with first base winners. In this regard they are the
worst type of player/trader. They refuse to win, even when they are
technically winning, but they are losers because they cannot transform to
something "less". Big hitters in trading feel they have to fulfill some
"special needs" that is they objective. The trading chronicles has a long
list of big hitters who self-retired their own large ego accounts in record
time because they failed to be happy with single base hits! In this regard,
these kind of players do have a record...a losing record!

Be a first base winners....let the home runs come to you when they do...But,
focus on being the best "one bagger" you can be....specialize in single base
hits .make them fun and enjoyable . If you are waiting for a small "bunt"
hit to somehow "carry" you make it around all bases, you are just now being
smart and you will lose. Be sensible, one bagger players help the team win
in the long run more than any home run specialist can ever do. As
spectators, we love to see the homeruns..that is human nature. As team
captain, you like to see them also, but the real beauty of making a solid
team, is with solid players who can make base hits. Home run batters are a
different kind of specialization..you can never be highly probable by
fielding your team with only home run specialists. Think about 9 sammy sozas
or 9 mcquire's or 9 bonds? what chances do 9 super star home run bangers
have at winning any pennant races? They simply are not a "complete"
team...you need specialists at all levels.
In trading, you also need to speciliaze at all levels in baseball to make a
winning team...home run hitters are just one small part of an entire unit.
The smart fast one bagger player is the foundation!

4. Never forget the risk of news...I personally do not trade news per
se...Meaning, I do not sit around waiting for news to make trades from it.
Rather I
postpone trading when news happens so that I can find the trend that happens
as a result..if no trend to news. Avoid pre-news trades also or be aware of
how to protect them..., especially if it is maybe a few hours or a few
minutes coming into a release....the exotic large swings provide little to
no context for any system to draw highly probable target and risk levels.
That is what news does..it destroys price structures. And this makes system
traded decision very difficult to adjust to. Systems are not adequate to
protect you when large swings occur from such news. So whatever you were
thinking
about price structure is most likely to collapse as a result of news, is the
way I look at this. In most cases of real news, a completely new price
structure is formed, you can just never know what direction.
So, until a new structure is built it is unwise to apply "old" structure
rules you "were" operating....let the news work itself out...then look for
real signals..that is best...there is always plenty of pips to be made on
new strucutures formed from news..so don't be thinking impatiently ...if you
wait, you find opportunity. If you get into the market before a new price
structure is built, you take unnecessary risk that the prior structure is no
longer valid and losing ground. Sometimes structures get reinforced,
sometimes they are destroyed and reversed by news...you just want to wait to
see the evidence in price to news to make the connection. I use a economic
news calendar right next to my desk..But watching and reading news is also
important when you trade...why?
you get suprises intraday and do not want to be in a trade and then fnd out
15 minutes later after the fact why your trade is not working out! Price
can react to news quite fast in forex. News does matter! Take it into
consideration. Just do not trade it in the moment of news as a rule of
trading and you greatly reduce risk or ruin.

5. When in doubt, try it in demo first. Lets say you see something...it
has all the right moves...but, you have a "doubt"...for some this doubt is
because there is something technically missing and this means to them the
setups is less than ideal. Some might be in doubt because they "think" the
setup is good but they are just not "sure of themselves". In this regard,
both traders have exactly the same delimnas...to trade or not to trade. The
reasons for both are different, but the choices they face are identical!
And that is all the matters is what they both do next. It doesnot really
matter what the premise of the doubt is based on...It is what they do about
the doubt....how they deal with it...what there plan is for doubt! that is
the point. Both traders, novice and expert, would be better off testing
their assumptions and skills in demo at any time they have doubt for any
reasons. The purpose of demo is to demonstrate without the fear and pain of
losing money, if your trade logic is sound. Use your demo account to learn
about yourself...and also about the limits of your system and ability to
operate a given set of conditions that you are not sure about.. Then record
your results. Once you do this over time, you will have a better set of
proven methods in demo to draw from...we do not fly x-planes in real money
accounts. we do not use real money as test pilots! It might not sound sexy
to pass up a trade and go back to demo...but it works! My thinking is
similar to the baseball analogy. the pro-ball players still practice
between games, before games and even during an actual game. practice
practice practice...it is the only wayto improve and increase odds of
winning.

6. Collaboration matters. At all level of of skill, successful players
work together to succeed. But do not team up with players who have nothing
to offer
you! A group of inexperienced players will most likely fall apart out of
group think. If you want to improve your game, mentor with some who plays
better
than you! There are many many traders willing to help! forex is very
big...there is no rational reason for exclusivity...experienced players know
this...new players "think" that winnning ways must be concealed. This is
simply not true..and it never was true! Some of our own human assumptions
are our own worst enemies.

Collaborate with a mentor during real time trading if you can. If you are
cautious, then simply trade these colaborations in demo. Maybe that is the
best
advice when starting a new group...let the demo account prove to you that
you are learning something good. Learn from other people. Much can be won,
simply by listening and observing. Experiences traders do this
everyday...they collaborate, share and excahnge ideas everytime they are
looking at
trading...no exceptions...

find a group...participate..learn...This collaboration process will take you
to areas in trading that you may not have considered on your own. For that
alone, collaboration is well worth the energy spent. And it also makes
trading more interesting to work with others.

[koko]

Trading in The Zone

Тук имаме невероятно рядката възможност да отворим дълга позиция със къс стоп ревърс
Дълга при отваряне със стоп ревърс х2 на 7340 имаме седмичен канал и скапано фибо