Валутна търговия - FOREX - АРХИВ

[SPEKO]

eur/usd

WTI
Знам/ За малко до 2 седмици
Но мисля че ще продължи да стой в 45-55 до пролетта

[vaso]

eur/usd

SPEKO ot de razbra pak ti 4e petrola 6t epadne do 45$ - govorim za WTI nali???

[koko]

eur/usd

Участвам в един международен FXINFO. Forex Informers Project
Boston, September 29: The IMF sees US growth slowing to 3.5% in 2005 from an earlier estimate of 3.9%.The US current account deficit should average 4% for the rest of the decade, they say. The fund says the ECB should stay accommodative until there is a self-sustaining upturn in domestic demand, but says inflation expectations remain well grounded in the Eurozone. EUR/USD could care less, trading quietly at 1.2315. --Jamie.Coleman@thomson.com

[SPEKO]

eur/usd

Петрола пада до $45 другата седмица
Мислиш ли че $ е ъп? до 1.2245

[koko]

gbp

Touted US name offers from 1.8010 are helping keep a lid on cable"s rebound rally from the intra-week low of 1.7992 plumbed on MPC member Barker"s dovish comments.In an interview with Reuters, Barker said she would not exclude 4.75% as being the bottom of a plausible "neutral" UK base rate range (the base rate is currently 4.75%).Pre-Barker, cable had been depressed by the larger-than-expected upward revisionto US Q2 GDP, plus a batch of GBP-negative data, including a dismal CBI retail sales survey. --Robert.Howard@thomson.com

[SPEKO]

eur/usd

от къде го разбра?

[koko]

eur/usd

1.2310 1.2300 ima opcii za pokupki i posle 4ak na 1.2280

[mario]

eur/usd

ADVFN WEEKLY REPORT 09-29-04



By Kathy Lien and Adam Rosen, Currency Strategists for Dailyfx



Sponsored by FXCM London



*Forex Capital Markets conducts free weekly seminars on FX Strategies in London. To reserve a seat for the seminar, please contact Steven Stolk at sstolk@fxcm.com(please note: space is limited and we offer spaces on a first-come, first-serve basis.)



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


MARKET COMMENTARY



TECHNICAL OUTLOOK (Based upon weekly charts)



EUR/USD Weekly



Bulls have made solid attempts to break the resistance line this week, as the pair attempted to break the 50% retracement of 1.2935-1.1755 (1.2345), before finally closing at 1.2261. Simultaneously, the simple moving averages converged following the range between weekly highs and lows. The 24-week SMA (1.2142) fell below the 36-week SMA (1.2226), as well as the 52-week SMA (1.2190) respectively. Much like the moving averages, the Bollinger Bands draw closer, indicating a decreasing rate of volatility in the pair. This implies a break is pending just as the pennant does.



USD/JPY Weekly

Buyers dominated the market this week sending the pair to monthly highs (110.93), before finally closing the session (110.61) on a strong note. The moving averages tell us a bullish story across the board as follows: the 24- week simple moving average (110.02) trades above the 36-week SMA (109.12), which in turn trades above the 52-week SMA (108.83). In addition, the weeks high rests on the 50% Fibonacci level (110.94) drawn between 114.85-106.99. Interesting to note, as the upper limits of a long-term triangle are challenged the MACD concur. If buyers can overcome these fibs, sellers may wait near the 61.8% fibs (111.86) as supporting bids may lurk near the monthly lows at the 109.00 figure.



GBP/USD Weekly



Cable buyers challenged monthly highs, as approached potential resistance found at the 38.2% fibs (1.8103) drawn from 1.8768-1.7706, before closing the week at 1.8036. As the 24-week SMA (1.8130) trails the 36-week SMA (1.8216), both simple moving averages trade at a relatively stronger level than the longer-term 52-week SMA (1.7947). The pair closed the week just below the neckline (1.8130) of the ominous H&S formation and a close next week above would surely turn the outlook bullish. Conversely a failure would lend weight to the continuation of the trend lower.



USD/CHF Weekly



Candlestick reveal a variation of the infamous bearish engulfing pattern as this weeks trading session opened and closed at 1.2680 & 1.2627, while exploring highs and lows of 1.2772 & 1.2509 respectively. This wide range may tell us the sellers are gaining strength and conviction. If this is the case, supporting bids may be found at the 61.8% fibs (1.2452) drawn from 1.2203-1.2857. The 24 and 36-week SMA stand almost together at 1.2639 & 1.2642 respectively while the 52-week SMA remains slightly higher at 1.2710. In the meantime, selling resistance may above near the 1.2800 figure. Finally, the Bollinger Bands have moved closer indicating we may have a break in the near future.



THE WEEK AHEAD



Don't be fooled by the seemingly calm week, underneath the placid price action the pair is showing a dollar bear bias. The key event of the week was the FOMC decision to hike rates another 25bp to 1.75%. While many dollar bulls anticipated that this action would be positive for the greenback, the euro actually rallied for 70 points off the news, as Fed's tepid statement which kept the word "measured" and focused on muted inflationary pressures provided little reason for the market to go long dollars. An interesting perspective on the whole Fed tightening cycle comes from economist Mike Norman who observes, "Perhaps we can draw some analogies from Japan, where the stock speculative bubble peaked in 1989. Over the ensuing three years there was a collapse in the Nikkei, and economic growth started to contract. Then the Japanese economy stabilized and started to recover. So did the Nikkei. But in 1994 after regaining about half of its peak to trough decline, the Bank of Japan started raising interest rates again in response to the first signs of an economic upturn, and that was it. A new sell-off ensued, carrying stocks--and the Japanese economy down yet again." Like Norman we feel, that the Fed is playing a very dangerous game. The recessionary risks of higher interest rate regime far outweigh any potential inflationary danger of keeping rates low.



On the economic front, news flow was sparse with Durable Goods the main release of the week. Although the number disappointed, printing -0.5% vs. -0.2% expected, the notoriously volatile report was greatly affected by big decline in airplane orders from Boeing. Ex- transportation, the report actually showed a gain of 2.3% versus 0.8% expected. Following the release, some analysts immediately jumped on the bullish bandwagon raising the Q4 GDP projections to 4.2% from 3.9% previous expectation. We however, remain highly dubious of projections that solely rely on capital spending to drive the economy upward. Companies will often cancel their CAPEX budgets in a heartbeat on even a hint of slowing demand making those projections as volatile as the Durable Goods number. More interesting for us was the Existing Home Sales numbers which declined 2.3% in August for a second month in a row. Meanwhile, Housing Starts increased. This widening gap between supply and demand in the housing market is precisely the dynamic that worries us because it is a recipe for lower prices. As we've often stated in our daily reports should housing prices begin to fall materially, the effect on the economy will dwarf any other economic or monetary development pushing the dollar relentlessly lower.



Next week the economic calendar is much fuller with Consumer Confidence, Personal Income and ISM Manufacturing vying for traders attention. Personal Income will be especially interesting to see as the market expects wages to finally expand. If that number prints in line or better it will offer significant support to the USD bulls and their case that US recovery will get a second wind as consumer' s incomes finally feel the benefit of economic growth. However, should the number be weaker, the bulls will have practically no ammunition left With EUR/USD pair making a fourth straight week of higher lows, the game has become USD bears to lose. But we caution that unless price authoritatively breaks the 1.2500 barrier the pair will remain range bound albeit for now with a dollar bearish bias.


Току що го получих

[SPEKO]

eur/usd

Kakwo ima na 1.2313/15 ?

[bertram]

cad/usd

shte po4na da izpolzvam lafa :
'hubava rabota ama kanadska' i tva eur iako se e zapunalo. mai se branat i dvete posoki i to kato ne moze nagore ne moze nadolu i... samo u desno

[koko]

d

A German name has been noted executing a sell order for a fund through USD/JPY, EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY, driving all three pairs back towards the lows of the session. --Russell.Bloom@Thomson.com

[vaso]

eur/usd

e dobre de - petrola padna s po4ti $ - GDP=3.3 po-golqm ot o4akvanoto - 10 yr USD treasures sa na 4.07 - neznam 6to ne se ka4gva toq dollar - pak tva EUR kvo godarji tolkova sa6to neznam?

[Анто]

cad/usd

Айде момчета, петрола тръгна надолу, яхайте канадките

[m13]

eur/usd

США: Цена на нефть упала до отметки 49,25 доллар/баррель

[koko]

eur/usd

Boston, September 29: Oil inventories in the US unexpectedly rose last week with the market fully anticipating a big drop after a series of hurricanes and other supply disruptions. Asian bids toward 1.2300 are seen limiting the downside near-term, but a sustained selloff in crude could see stops below 1.2280 come into focus later inthe session. EUR/USD trades at 1.2320, oil trades at $49.25, down $0.65. -- Jamie.Coleman@thomson.com