Election
Ето ви нещо за разведряване на обстановката
Повечето може би сте го чели (John Hardy, Saxobank), но наистина звучи забавно...
1. A quick Bush victory (with results from exit polls across the east and midwest swing states showing consistent edge to Bush by 04:00-05:00 GMT) - is perhaps the most USD bullish scenario that could push EUR/USD as far as 1.2600 and maybe even 1.2550 before it finds support - but the sell-off could be short lived, with a very rapid recovery back to 1.2840 by late next week as EUR/USD primes for 1.3000+ later this year.
2. A quick Kerry victory (with results from exit polls across the east and midwest swing states showing consistent edge to Kerry by 04:00-05:00 GMT) - is a slightly USD bullish scenario. Initially, the market could consider a Kerry victory USD bearish, but a relief rally could then push EUR/USD back to 1.2650 before it recovers again and heads to 1.2840 and byond by late next week.
3. The most USD bearish scenario is a repeat of the 2000 debacle with no clear winner by Wednesday mid-morning in Europe. Here we could see a quick move to 1.2900+, followed by a sell-off to perhaps 1.2700 once the victor is declared, and then another reversal higher again to new highs above 1.3000 further out.
Again, my preferred thing to do is to simply accumulate EUR/USD on the dips - starting here around 1.2700. There is a STRONG consensus that we will see a USD relief rally no matter what - and fading strong consensus is often very profitable. Nonetheless, one needs to keep leverage low and keep a very wide stop loss below 1.2550.
Ето ви нещо за разведряване на обстановката
Повечето може би сте го чели (John Hardy, Saxobank), но наистина звучи забавно...1. A quick Bush victory (with results from exit polls across the east and midwest swing states showing consistent edge to Bush by 04:00-05:00 GMT) - is perhaps the most USD bullish scenario that could push EUR/USD as far as 1.2600 and maybe even 1.2550 before it finds support - but the sell-off could be short lived, with a very rapid recovery back to 1.2840 by late next week as EUR/USD primes for 1.3000+ later this year.
2. A quick Kerry victory (with results from exit polls across the east and midwest swing states showing consistent edge to Kerry by 04:00-05:00 GMT) - is a slightly USD bullish scenario. Initially, the market could consider a Kerry victory USD bearish, but a relief rally could then push EUR/USD back to 1.2650 before it recovers again and heads to 1.2840 and byond by late next week.
3. The most USD bearish scenario is a repeat of the 2000 debacle with no clear winner by Wednesday mid-morning in Europe. Here we could see a quick move to 1.2900+, followed by a sell-off to perhaps 1.2700 once the victor is declared, and then another reversal higher again to new highs above 1.3000 further out.
Again, my preferred thing to do is to simply accumulate EUR/USD on the dips - starting here around 1.2700. There is a STRONG consensus that we will see a USD relief rally no matter what - and fading strong consensus is often very profitable. Nonetheless, one needs to keep leverage low and keep a very wide stop loss below 1.2550.
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