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Давид - този анализ на Мизухо го 4етох много отдавна - надиавам се да не са прави о6те пове4е не ги харесвам много.
Долар иена ниама как да пробие 100 в това сам сигурен но дори и да го направи бож 6те се намеси но не е невазможно да стигнем до там. Кабела си е на ме4и сас6то и ни6то 4удно да тестваме 1.8470 но се надиавам това да стане от 1.8820. много неиасна картина.
Благодариа за анализа. Малко по касно 6те пусна за евродолар там поне не6тата са иасни и се ограни4ажат до 5 варианта
Ипвркете ме за правописа но пи6а на немска клавиатура в момента а по памет не помниа кирилицата
..., спокойно може да гледаш прогнозите им и да играеш обратното. Те винаги са в обратната посока. Вярвай ми, защото екпспериментирах с тях около месец и нещо и са много зле. От 1,24 до 1,36 само веднъж доколкото си спомням бяха дълги - прави си изводи. Иначе им гледам всеки ден прогнозите, за да имам една идея за посоката, която в 90 % от случаите е обратна на тяхната :-).
Technical Analysis - Six Month Outlook for GBP/JPY
Comment: The long term trend to Yen weakness against the pound that started in October 2000 is mature but very much intact. Upside pressure on prices is expected to increase over the next month or two, pushing the market through key resistance that lies between 204.00 and 208.00. A monthly close above 206.00, or a break above 210.00, signals the start of the next step higher which should take prices up to the 220.00 area, probably early/mid-Q4 2004. Then up to 226.00 around year-end, prior to a final squeeze higher to 230.00/233.00 at the end of Q1 2005. Note that our upside targets may be slightly on the optimistic side in terms of timing but not in price. In this case the highest levels mentioned may not be reached until late in 2005. Because of increased implied volatility, only a monthly close below 190.00 forces us to review. In this case price action this year should be seen as a potential ‘top’ and the pound should then weaken slowly against the Yen over the subsequent months, to 180.00 and eventually 165.00.
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FX Unigma
FX Unigma
FXPASS, blagodarq ti mnogo za otgovora.
Bi li mi kazal koq usluga pozlva: Forecast ili Forecast Plus Service?
Blagodarq ti oste vednyj
An interesting view here but good to read nevertheless......
""""""
Almost every day I get asked why a particular market has gone up or down. If the
question is about a Forex move then quite often I can say because a particular
bank or hedge fund sold X amount or because some stop losses were triggered.
Often I will then be asked why they bought or sold and this is when things start
getting interesting. Let me give you an example.
A few years ago I left one bank to join another where I ran the Forex desk. Part
of my remit was to manage the risk of the traders and I would have a computer
screen up at all times which showed me the positions of my traders. As full
members know I often talk about the positioning of the market and market
reaction to news. Yesterday morning on Harry Buzz we remarked that though the
dollar and equities were weaker Gold wasn't rallying. Some traders bought Gold
expecting it to play catch-up but as we pointed out on HarryBuzz the correct
trade as to sell as if something doesn't go up when it should then the likely
move is lower. It fell $5.
Anyway back to the Bank. Quite often I would find out that all of my traders
were positioned the same way. They would all be sitting, for example, long of
$300 million dollars, no doubt for the best of reasons. When this happened I
would ring up a few contacts and see how other banks were positioned. On one
occasion my counterpart at a large Swiss bank told me his traders were similarly
long. We discussed it and agreed that though the reasons for being long of
dollars were correct, with so many people long and the market struggling to
rise, we needed a sell off to get rid of the weak longs before we could try
higher. My counterpart and I therefore decided that our banks were too exposed
to the dollar and we had an opportunity to get long at better levels. Without
telling our traders why, we both sold about $250 million into a long market
sending the dollar lower and squeezing many longs, including our own traders,
out of their positions. When the market had calmed down we bought most of these
back at a much better level.
Ok so what are you getting at Harry, apart from telling us an old war story? I
hear you ask. My point is that too many people look for answers why every move
happens and send themselves mad in the process. To me what is more important is
what does the market expect to happen and is it happening? On the 19th February
we published an article entitled: "Sell Sterling Wear Diamond." Cable was above
1.9000 and every Muppet imaginable was on CNBC saying that it was going to 2.00.
It was obvious that everyone was positioned the same way and we put out a trade
to our members to sell if 1.8980 broke, even though I have been bullish of
sterling all year. It has since fallen 1200 points and yesterday we went long of
sterling again admittedly against the euro but still at better levels.
Markets move. They are not rational because the participants are human and not
rational. Believe me if you ever sat on a market making desk and met some of the
traders you would understand. Many years ago one UK clearing bank would go long
or short of Cable according to whether the Page 3 girls nipples were pointing up
or down. Perhaps this is where the saying "going tits up" comes from.
""""""
According to managers of day-trading firms cited in a Washington Post Magazine article published during the bull market, about 90% of day traders "are washed up within three months." David Shellenberger of the Massachusetts Securities Division has noted that "Most traders will lose all of their money." A principal of a day-trading firm even admitted that "95% [of day traders] will fail in the first two years.
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FXPASS
FX Unigma
пробвах ги на демо.резултатът-ЕДИН ГОЛЯМ МИНУС.ЗАБРАВИ ЗА ТЯХ!
И аз съм дълъг там и добавих. Утре ще видя за идеи ще питам по майла и по-разбиращи от мен и ще коментирам, аз също се притеснявам не заради акаунта си но поне суапа е добър иначе ако има изгледи да пада надолу ще хеджирам но ще га проуча и ще коментирам утре вечерта.
Успехи
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