Are You Ready for Dow 20,000?

[ATILA]

Ако това стане, бензинът ще иде на 12 лева литъра.

Да, ама бордът ще е паднал и еврото ще е 4 лв....

[Forex Master]

Re: Are You Ready for Dow 20,000?

Are You Ready for Dow 20,000?

Ако това стане, бензинът ще иде на 12 лева литъра... Съмнявам се дали ще си доволен?

[Vlado1]

Tova e mnogo interesno. Kak promenia ochakvaniata vi za pazara sled kato go prochetete. Razbira se, izvadil sam go ot pulniat mu kontext i moje da ne se razbere tochno ot kade idvat tezi izchislenia.

Let’s revisit some data I mentioned two years ago: During the
20th Century, the Dow advanced from 66 to 11,497. This gain, though it appears huge, shrinks to 5.3%
when compounded annually. An investor who owned the Dow throughout the century would also have
received generous dividends for much of the period, but only about 2% or so in the final years. It was a
wonderful century.
Think now about this century. For investors to merely match that 5.3% market-value gain, the
Dow – recently below 13,000 – would need to close at about 2,000,000 on December 31, 2099. We are
now eight years into this century, and we have racked up less than 2,000 of the 1,988,000 Dow points the
market needed to travel in this hundred years to equal the 5.3% of the last.
It’s amusing that commentators regularly hyperventilate at the prospect of the Dow crossing an
even number of thousands, such as 14,000 or 15,000. If they keep reacting that way, a 5.3% annual gain
for the century will mean they experience at least 1,986 seizures during the next 92 years. While anything
is possible, does anyone really believe this is the most likely outcome?
Dividends continue to run about 2%. Even if stocks were to average the 5.3% annual appreciation
of the 1900s, the equity portion of plan assets – allowing for expenses of .5% – would produce no more
than 7% or so. And .5% may well understate costs, given the presence of layers of consultants and highpriced
managers (“helpers”).
Naturally, everyone expects to be above average. And those helpers – bless their hearts – will
certainly encourage their clients in this belief. But, as a class, the helper-aided group must be below
average. The reason is simple: 1) Investors, overall, will necessarily earn an average return, minus costs
they incur; 2) Passive and index investors, through their very inactivity, will earn that average minus costs
that are very low; 3) With that group earning average returns, so must the remaining group – the active
investors. But this group will incur high transaction, management, and advisory costs. Therefore, the
active investors will have their returns diminished by a far greater percentage than will their inactive
brethren. That means that the passive group – the “know-nothings” – must win.
I should mention that people who expect to earn 10% annually from equities during this century –
envisioning that 2% of that will come from dividends and 8% from price appreciation – are implicitly
forecasting a level of about 24,000,000 on the Dow by 2100. If your adviser talks to you about doubledigit
returns from equities, explain this math to him – not that it will faze him.

[Brother BULL]

skarcat daskite kazvash tochno tova shte izpolzvat debelite yanki straha (sega nikoi ne iska da kupuva strah go ot recesia, inflacia, ot Osama, ot Susama, ot Global Warming, Global COLDING i ot Izvanzemnite) i shte zakarat barzo barzo pazara vav visotite i tam shte ima distribucia na small fish

JUST A HINT WATCH Wall Mart Stores (WMT) 8 year range is coming to an END

[c.r.e.a.m]

Намествайте си дъските отвреме навреме ...

[Brother BULL]

za BFB ne sam chak takav BULL s izkluchenie na niakolko pozicii no za USA sam

[niki5]

Re: Are You Ready for Dow 20,000?

Are You Ready for Dow 20,000?
Barron's ^ | 24 March 2008 | JONATHAN R. LAING

Posted on 03/23/2008 7:37:19 PM PDT by shrinkermd

DESPITE THE BEAR STEARNS BAILOUT AND THE FED'S rate cut, a sense of foreboding is still abroad on Wall and Main Streets. Few investors feel good with an economic slowdown gathering force, the dollar in the dumps and contagion threatening to hit financial sectors previously unscathed or not even suspected of being at risk.

This in mind, we contacted James Finucane, a 67-year-old stock strategist who now works as a consultant in West Lafayette, Ind., home of Purdue University...

...To him, we're now at yet another extraordinary low, especially with the unprecedented actions taken by the Fed of late to offer liquidity to investment banks and to commercial banks stuck with mortgage-backed securities of uncertain value. In fact, he foresees an explosive rally, with the Dow rocketing to 18,000 to 20,000 within a year from its current 12,361. The climb, he says, might begin imminently or take a few months of backing and filling before the market takes off.

Finucane argues that financial crises invariably yield spectacular buy points, especially when they reach crescendos. He points to calamities such as the 1970 Penn Central bankruptcy, the 1984 failure of Continental Bank, the 1994 Mexican peso devaluation and the 1998 collapse of the Long Term Capital Management hedge fund. Each time, important lows were made either simultaneously or within a month of the crisis.

...In Finucane's estimation, months of stock liquidation and cash buildup, horrible sentiment and a bailout that could alter investor psychology have lit the fuse for an explosive rally. It will be ignited by one of those mercurial shifts in mood from abject fear to tentative confidence and, finally, wanton greed. "The setup is perfect," he asserts, using a pool-hall term. And he's confident that investors won't end up behind the eight ball.



interesno!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! i az sam v BULLish otbora ama sam zverski BULL

vzimai si hap4etata redovno

[Brother BULL]

Are You Ready for Dow 20,000?
Barron's ^ | 24 March 2008 | JONATHAN R. LAING

Posted on 03/23/2008 7:37:19 PM PDT by shrinkermd

DESPITE THE BEAR STEARNS BAILOUT AND THE FED'S rate cut, a sense of foreboding is still abroad on Wall and Main Streets. Few investors feel good with an economic slowdown gathering force, the dollar in the dumps and contagion threatening to hit financial sectors previously unscathed or not even suspected of being at risk.

This in mind, we contacted James Finucane, a 67-year-old stock strategist who now works as a consultant in West Lafayette, Ind., home of Purdue University...

...To him, we're now at yet another extraordinary low, especially with the unprecedented actions taken by the Fed of late to offer liquidity to investment banks and to commercial banks stuck with mortgage-backed securities of uncertain value. In fact, he foresees an explosive rally, with the Dow rocketing to 18,000 to 20,000 within a year from its current 12,361. The climb, he says, might begin imminently or take a few months of backing and filling before the market takes off.

Finucane argues that financial crises invariably yield spectacular buy points, especially when they reach crescendos. He points to calamities such as the 1970 Penn Central bankruptcy, the 1984 failure of Continental Bank, the 1994 Mexican peso devaluation and the 1998 collapse of the Long Term Capital Management hedge fund. Each time, important lows were made either simultaneously or within a month of the crisis.

...In Finucane's estimation, months of stock liquidation and cash buildup, horrible sentiment and a bailout that could alter investor psychology have lit the fuse for an explosive rally. It will be ignited by one of those mercurial shifts in mood from abject fear to tentative confidence and, finally, wanton greed. "The setup is perfect," he asserts, using a pool-hall term. And he's confident that investors won't end up behind the eight ball.



interesno!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! i az sam v BULLish otbora ama sam zverski BULL