Този extraordinary ръст на печалбата не отговаря на пазарната ситуация на ограничен разтеж на кредитите и вероятно няма да се запази. Още повече тези "прочути" мин. оперативни разходи не могат да се свиват до безкрайност..... Да не говорим че total assets=market capitalization.....e меко казано странно.
Те отчетите за Q1 ще излязат скоро така, че ще видим кой, кого.
Успех
И малко храна за размисъл.....за една страна близко до България и географски и по икономическа ситуация.
Те отчетите за Q1 ще излязат скоро така, че ще видим кой, кого.
Успех
И малко храна за размисъл.....за една страна близко до България и географски и по икономическа ситуация.
Finansbank deal raises benchmark for Turkish banks
The latest sale of a Turkish bank to a foreign firm, at a price that some analysts said was steep, has raised the threshold for other banking deals expected to be completed this year.
Greece's National Bank <NBGr.AT> announced this week it would pay 2.3 billion euros ($2.8 billion) for a 46 percent stake in Turkey's Finansbank <FINBN.IS>.
It said the amount valued Finansbank at 3.6 times its consolidated pro-forma book value, a higher premium than was paid for similar deals in 2005.
"Every deal sets a benchmark," said one banking analyst who declined to be named. "Prices are going up."
Not all foreign banks may accept higher valuations. The chief executive of Citigroup <C.N>, which the market had expected to buy Finansbank, said after the Greeks clinched the stake: "We are very focused on not overpaying for deals."
Analysts also agree that takeover expectations are already reflected in stock market prices.
But some argue that foreign banks keen to tap Turkey's fast-growing market will pay up, and that there is still room for more share price gains by Turkish banks likely to be taken over.
The price of 3.6 times book value exceeds current levels for the rest of the sector. According to Credit Suisse, the banks it covers trade at a price-to-book ratio of 2.7 times.
"It's difficult not to argue that the valuation is significantly higher than what other banks are trading at, and that would imply that Turkish banks should be trading at higher multiples," said one London-based analyst, who asked not to be named.
PRICEY, PRICIER
At this time last year, Dutch-Belgian financial group Fortis Bank <FOR.AS> agreed to buy Disbank, which analysts said was pricey then at 1.9 times book value.
In 2005, the highest premium in terms of book value was paid by a unit of General Electric <GE.N> for a 25.5 percent stake in Garanti Bank <GARAN.IS>. Analysts said the price of $1.56 billion was 2.6 times book value.
Other Turkish banks whose owners have indicated they could be sold this year include Denizbank <DENIZ.IS>, with a market capitalisation of $2.81 billion, much smaller Sekerbank <SKBNK.IS>, and Turkey's fifth-largest bank, state-run Halkbank.
Turkey said on Wednesday it had chosen advisers for the Halkbank sale, which is part of its IMF-backed privatisation programme. Rising prices would be good news for the Treasury.
Sabanci Holding <SAHOL.IS>, the parent company of Akbank <AKBNK.IS> -- one of Turkey's largest banks with a market capitalisation of $15.5 billion, has said it was looking for acquisitions and other partnership possibilities but has not said what kind of deal it had in mind.
Hobbled by this uncertainty, Akbank's stock price has only risen 7.5 percent this year -- just underperforming the main Istanbul share index <.XU100> and less than Denizbank's 36 percent rise and Sekerbank's 41 percent.
SCARCITY VALUE
Analysts said the large mark-up between the Disbank and Finansbank deals reflected an overall improvement in sentiment towards Turkey, which has recovered from a 2001 financial meltdown to post 7.6 percent GNP growth in 2005 -- the same year it started European Union entry talks.
JP Morgan analyst Yolanda Courtines said that, out of the most closely watched factors -- return on equity, the cost of equity and growth -- the change in the growth outlook had been the most important factor in changing valuations.
"The main moving piece of that equation was the growth, because investors are just more confident in the longer term sustainability of the growth picture for the Turkish banking sector, because of the economy, because of the convergence story, because of a more sustainable earnings model," she said.
With Akbank's intentions unclear, Denizbank is considered possibly the last major banking acquisition opportunity in Turkey, which has a young and fast-growing population of 70 million.
"There are more interested parties than banks for sale ... Every bank is thinking, 'If we don't get it this time, we won't get it'. That pushes the valuation higher," the first analyst said.
Foreigners now own 14.4 percent of the Turkish banking sector, Deputy Prime Minister Abdullatif Sener said on Wednesday.
ATTRACTIVE MARKET
Other emerging markets also offer investment opportunities but Credit Suisse's Yavuz Uzay said Turkey's banking sector was one of the most attractive in emerging Europe.
"It has a low banking penetration, low loans to gross domestic product, below 30 percent as of year-end of 2005, and loans and deposits are still growing pretty fast," he said.
"In terms of size it's an attractive market as well."
Turkey is set to approve a law this year that would allow banks to offer mortgages, as lower interest rates and inflation in single digits for the first time in a generation have made such lending feasible, while increasing consumer confidence is spurring loan growth.
If Akbank -- which reported loan growth of 71 percent last year -- does sell a stake, analysts expect strong demand.
"Akbank is a unique asset. It's the largest private bank still available. That definitely has a significant value for a European bank ... There could be significant upside," said another banking analyst, who declined to be named.
Sekerbank, originally a bank for sugar cooperatives, is due to open its books to prospective buyers on April 10.
Analysts said the prospects were good for sale at a strong price after a deal with Rabobank [RABN.UL] last July was scrapped, following an Istanbul court ruling in February that the price was too low. Sekerbank's stock rallied 6 percent on the day the deal's collapse was announced, suggesting that investors expected a better deal was on the way.
But there are still risks in the sector.
Analysts expect that banks will sacrifice profitability this year to chase share in a competitive market, offering high rates on deposits, which squashes margins.
And despite European Union membership talks, Turkey is not immune to political and economic risk.
Economists are concerned that the approach of parliamentary and presidential elections could tempt the government to boost spending as a means of bolstering its popularity with voters.
The latest sale of a Turkish bank to a foreign firm, at a price that some analysts said was steep, has raised the threshold for other banking deals expected to be completed this year.
Greece's National Bank <NBGr.AT> announced this week it would pay 2.3 billion euros ($2.8 billion) for a 46 percent stake in Turkey's Finansbank <FINBN.IS>.
It said the amount valued Finansbank at 3.6 times its consolidated pro-forma book value, a higher premium than was paid for similar deals in 2005.
"Every deal sets a benchmark," said one banking analyst who declined to be named. "Prices are going up."
Not all foreign banks may accept higher valuations. The chief executive of Citigroup <C.N>, which the market had expected to buy Finansbank, said after the Greeks clinched the stake: "We are very focused on not overpaying for deals."
Analysts also agree that takeover expectations are already reflected in stock market prices.
But some argue that foreign banks keen to tap Turkey's fast-growing market will pay up, and that there is still room for more share price gains by Turkish banks likely to be taken over.
The price of 3.6 times book value exceeds current levels for the rest of the sector. According to Credit Suisse, the banks it covers trade at a price-to-book ratio of 2.7 times.
"It's difficult not to argue that the valuation is significantly higher than what other banks are trading at, and that would imply that Turkish banks should be trading at higher multiples," said one London-based analyst, who asked not to be named.
PRICEY, PRICIER
At this time last year, Dutch-Belgian financial group Fortis Bank <FOR.AS> agreed to buy Disbank, which analysts said was pricey then at 1.9 times book value.
In 2005, the highest premium in terms of book value was paid by a unit of General Electric <GE.N> for a 25.5 percent stake in Garanti Bank <GARAN.IS>. Analysts said the price of $1.56 billion was 2.6 times book value.
Other Turkish banks whose owners have indicated they could be sold this year include Denizbank <DENIZ.IS>, with a market capitalisation of $2.81 billion, much smaller Sekerbank <SKBNK.IS>, and Turkey's fifth-largest bank, state-run Halkbank.
Turkey said on Wednesday it had chosen advisers for the Halkbank sale, which is part of its IMF-backed privatisation programme. Rising prices would be good news for the Treasury.
Sabanci Holding <SAHOL.IS>, the parent company of Akbank <AKBNK.IS> -- one of Turkey's largest banks with a market capitalisation of $15.5 billion, has said it was looking for acquisitions and other partnership possibilities but has not said what kind of deal it had in mind.
Hobbled by this uncertainty, Akbank's stock price has only risen 7.5 percent this year -- just underperforming the main Istanbul share index <.XU100> and less than Denizbank's 36 percent rise and Sekerbank's 41 percent.
SCARCITY VALUE
Analysts said the large mark-up between the Disbank and Finansbank deals reflected an overall improvement in sentiment towards Turkey, which has recovered from a 2001 financial meltdown to post 7.6 percent GNP growth in 2005 -- the same year it started European Union entry talks.
JP Morgan analyst Yolanda Courtines said that, out of the most closely watched factors -- return on equity, the cost of equity and growth -- the change in the growth outlook had been the most important factor in changing valuations.
"The main moving piece of that equation was the growth, because investors are just more confident in the longer term sustainability of the growth picture for the Turkish banking sector, because of the economy, because of the convergence story, because of a more sustainable earnings model," she said.
With Akbank's intentions unclear, Denizbank is considered possibly the last major banking acquisition opportunity in Turkey, which has a young and fast-growing population of 70 million.
"There are more interested parties than banks for sale ... Every bank is thinking, 'If we don't get it this time, we won't get it'. That pushes the valuation higher," the first analyst said.
Foreigners now own 14.4 percent of the Turkish banking sector, Deputy Prime Minister Abdullatif Sener said on Wednesday.
ATTRACTIVE MARKET
Other emerging markets also offer investment opportunities but Credit Suisse's Yavuz Uzay said Turkey's banking sector was one of the most attractive in emerging Europe.
"It has a low banking penetration, low loans to gross domestic product, below 30 percent as of year-end of 2005, and loans and deposits are still growing pretty fast," he said.
"In terms of size it's an attractive market as well."
Turkey is set to approve a law this year that would allow banks to offer mortgages, as lower interest rates and inflation in single digits for the first time in a generation have made such lending feasible, while increasing consumer confidence is spurring loan growth.
If Akbank -- which reported loan growth of 71 percent last year -- does sell a stake, analysts expect strong demand.
"Akbank is a unique asset. It's the largest private bank still available. That definitely has a significant value for a European bank ... There could be significant upside," said another banking analyst, who declined to be named.
Sekerbank, originally a bank for sugar cooperatives, is due to open its books to prospective buyers on April 10.
Analysts said the prospects were good for sale at a strong price after a deal with Rabobank [RABN.UL] last July was scrapped, following an Istanbul court ruling in February that the price was too low. Sekerbank's stock rallied 6 percent on the day the deal's collapse was announced, suggesting that investors expected a better deal was on the way.
But there are still risks in the sector.
Analysts expect that banks will sacrifice profitability this year to chase share in a competitive market, offering high rates on deposits, which squashes margins.
And despite European Union membership talks, Turkey is not immune to political and economic risk.
Economists are concerned that the approach of parliamentary and presidential elections could tempt the government to boost spending as a means of bolstering its popularity with voters.
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