Share Price vs. Fair Value
Below are the data sources, inputs and calculation used to determine the intrinsic value for Shelly Group AD.
An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.
Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for BUL:SLYG using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Shelly Group AD is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We use analyst's estimates of cash flows going forward 10 years for the 1st stage, the 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
Learn more about our DCF calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model.
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Below are the data sources, inputs and calculation used to determine the intrinsic value for Shelly Group AD.
Valuation Model | 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity | |
Levered Free Cash Flow | Up to 1 Analyst Estimates on Average (S&P Global) | See below |
Discount Rate (Cost of Equity) | See below | 10.6% |
Perpetual Growth Rate | 5-Year Average of BG Long-Term Govt Bond Rate | 3.0% |
Risk-Free Rate | 5-Year Average of BG Long-Term Govt Bond Rate | 3.0% |
Equity Risk Premium | S&P Global | 6.9% |
Electronic Unlevered Beta | Simply Wall St/ S&P Global | 1.14 |
Re-levered Beta | = 0.33 + [(0.66 * Unlevered beta) * (1 + (1 - tax rate) (Debt/Market Equity))] = 0.33 + [(0.66 * 1.139) * (1 + (1 - 10.0%) (0.17%))] |
1.094 |
Levered Beta | Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0 (practical range for a stable firm) |
1.094 |
Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity | = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium) = 3.01% + (1.094 * 6.94%) |
10.60% |
Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for BUL:SLYG using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Shelly Group AD is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We use analyst's estimates of cash flows going forward 10 years for the 1st stage, the 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
2024 | 2 | Analyst x1 | 1,81 |
2025 | 22,6 | Analyst x1 | 18,47 |
2026 | 34,2 | Analyst x1 | 25,28 |
2027 | 43,51 | Est @ 27.22% | 29,07 |
2028 | 52,19 | Est @ 19.96% | 31,53 |
2029 | 59,96 | Est @ 14.87% | 32,75 |
2030 | 66,74 | Est @ 11.31% | 32,96 |
2031 | 72,63 | Est @ 8.82% | 32,43 |
2032 | 77,77 | Est @ 7.08% | 31,4 |
2033 | 82,33 | Est @ 5.86% | 30,05 |
Present value of next 10 years cash flows | BGN265,75 |
Terminal Value | FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g) = BGN82,329 x (1 + 3.01%) ÷ (10.60% - 3.01% ) |
BGN1116,7 |
Present Value of Terminal Value | = Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)10 BGN1117 ÷ (1 + 10.60%)10 |
BGN407,58 |
Total Equity Value | = Present value of next 10 years cash flows + Terminal Value = BGN266 + BGN408 |
BGN673,33 |
Equity Value per Share (BGN) |
= Total value / Shares Outstanding = BGN673 / 18 |
BGN37,3 |
Value per share (BGN) | From above. | BGN37.3 |
Current discount | Discount to share price of BGN72.2 = (BGN37.3 - BGN72.2) / BGN37.3 |
-93.6% |
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