Петрол Брент: Прогноза за ръст до $150-$200

[0007]

Още веднъж, новината на деня, касаеща прогноза за цената на петрола, пресъздадена от Блоомберг.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aIjhO.KunHcE

Gazprom Sees Oil at $250 in `Foreseeable Future' (Update3)

By Lucian Kim


June 10 (Bloomberg) -- OAO Gazprom, the world's biggest natural-gas company, expects oil prices to reach $250 a barrel in the ``foreseeable future'' as competition for energy resources increases, Chief Executive Officer Alexei Miller said.
``We are witnessing a big jump in the price of hydrocarbons,'' Miller told reporters today in a briefing in Deauville, France.

Crude futures have more than doubled in the past year, reaching a record $139.12 a barrel last week. The surge is hurting global economic growth prospects, the World Bank and the International Energy Agency said today.

State-run Gazprom plans to have a $1 trillion market value as early as 2015, Miller said. The company gets most of its profit from gas sales to Europe, where it has a quarter of the market and prices are pegged to oil.

Miller said that European customers are now paying an average of $410 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas, more than double the rate from two years ago.

Deputy CEO Alexander Medvedev, who also spoke at the briefing, defended the existing formula for European customers that links the gas price to oil.

``Unpegging the gas price from the oil price would be a big mistake for continental Europe,'' Medvedev said, as a spot market would make Europe vulnerable to the appearance of one dominant supplier of the fuel.

Price Peg

The majority of Gazprom's European customers ``insist'' on the oil price peg, he said, since it provides stability and sustainability to their long-term contracts. Spot markets in the U.K. and U.S. made sense because those countries covered their own domestic gas demand when trading began, Medvedev said.

Oil for July delivery fell to $131.25 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 1:55 p.m.

When asked if $250 a barrel was a reasonable forecast, Jose Sergio Gabrielli, chief executive officer of Petroleo Brasileiro SA, Brazil's state-controlled oil company, laughed.

``This is the $3 billion question,'' Gabrielli said at a presentation today in New York sponsored by the Brazil-American Chamber of Commerce. ``It is worthless to give you a number. Because it is going to be wrong.''
To contact the reporter on this story: Lucian Kim in Deauville, France, at lkim3@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: June 10, 2008 14:15 EDT

[AfterDark]

Айде бе, сериозно ли?

Добре, отивам на очен ...

8)

[0007]

Investorrr,

Защо точно Газ, няма ли друго на тоя свят?

8)

Колега, смени диоптъра, пак си объркал темата.

[AfterDark]

Investorrr,

Защо точно Газ, няма ли друго на тоя свят?

8)

[0007]

gmes,

На себе си вярвам, а не на писаници по медии. Но, събирам информация от различни медии и от различни източници, която анализирам, и сам си правя изводите - смятам, че все пак, да се чете е полезно, било то, обслужваща едни или други цели, информация, все пак това са новините.

Не ми трябва, някой да ми каже, че през 2009 може видим, по някое време 250$ за барел. Моята прогноза, е 100-150 EUR средна цена за барел през 2009, в зависимост, от това дали ще има война в Иран или не.

Между другото, тази прогноза на Газпром, за мен е най-авторитетната по темата, до момента, и според мен, тежи много повече, отколкото на някой корумпиран представител на ОПЕК, или на някой платен анализатор от инвестиционна банка и т.н.

[gmes]

На кого да вярваме?

На арабите, кои от 50$ нагоре за барел, все един и същи рефрен повтарят, че спекулантите движели цените и че доставките били в необходимите количества, или на Газпром, които, видно от долната днешна статия, са на друго мнение.

Всеки, може да прочете и двете гледни точки по темата, и да си направи изводите.

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/200806...m-9c49c44.html

Gazprom predicts $250 oil in 2009

By Tom Bergin Reuters - Tuesday, June 10 02:43 pm

DEAUVILLE, France (Reuters) - Russia's Gazprom, the supplier of a quarter of Europe's natural gas, expects the price of crude oil to almost double within 18 months and to take gas prices higher with it.

"We think it will reach $250 a barrel in the foreseeable future," Chief Executive Alexei Miller told reporters at a presentation in France, adding high demand rather than speculation was the primary factor for high hydrocarbon prices.

A spokesman said the company, which is also one of Russia's largest crude producers, expected the price to hit the $250/barrel level sometime in 2009.

Gazprom exports gas to Europe at prices linked to oil products. Miller said the current gas price was $410 per 1,000 cubic metres and Alexander Medvedev, Miller's deputy, said prices were likely to rise to reflect the higher cost of crude.

Analysts said that using the $250/barrel forecast and the conversion factors cited by Medvedev at the presentation, one would arrive at a gas price of $1,500 per 1,000 cubic metres.
"It's crazy ... maybe they know something we don't," said one analyst, who bemoaned the lack of analysis to back up the forecast.

"Usually one give a lot of analysis to back up that kind of forecast," he said.

The comments came as the oil price sat at around $134 a barrel, a few dollars short of last week's record level.

State-controlled Gazprom plans to double oil production by 2020. This goal could be reached sooner through the acquisition of a stake in TNK-BP, Russia's third-largest oil producer, and industry sources said Gazprom was interested.

Medvedev said Gazprom will only consider investing in TNK-BP after its shareholders have settled a dispute over control of the company.

TNK-BP is half owned by oil major BP and half owned a group of Russian billionaires who have criticised management at the company.

DIVERSIFICATION IS USELESS

Miller criticised European efforts to reduce reliance on Russia, which analysts expect to provide a third of EU gas in the years ahead, and slammed attempts to limit Gazprom's ability to buy gas distribution assets in the bloc.

Miller said it was Gazprom's strategy to be vertically integrated with operations from the well-head to the consumer in Europe and other continents.

Some European politicians have expressed concern about Gazprom buying up downstream assets in the EU saying the Kremlin could use these assets to exert political influence in the future but Medvedev said the investments were commercial.

"Why should we invest money to create the possibility to shut off the gas supply?" he said at the presentation in the resort town of Deauville in northern France.

Miller said attempts to improve security of EU energy supplies by diversifying energy suppliers would be counterproductive and Medvedev added that Russia could also follow the principle of diversification, potentially steering supplies away from Europe.

"If you diversify suppliers, it will not solve the problem," Medvedev said.

Gazprom, already the world's largest gas producer with a stock market value of over $330 billion (169 billion pounds), expects to triple in size to become a $1 trillion company within seven to 10 years, Miller said.
It will be investing heavily to achieve this, with total investments estimated at $30 billion for 2008 and set to rise in the years after that, company officials said.

Earlier, Miller told Le Figaro newspaper that by 2020, Gazprom sees about half of its gas production coming from new fields in arctic seas, Yamal peninsula in Western Siberia and the Far East.

Miller said Gazprom did "not exclude" making major acquisitions in France but organic growth was the priority for now.

(Writing by Andrew Callus; Additional reporting by Astrid Wendlandt in Paris; Editing by Louise Ireland)

Abe ti kakav 4ovek si deto viarva6 na vsi4ko koeto pi6at po vestnicite,mi to tezi novinari sa ramo do ramo s spekulantite i ti prodaljavai da viarva6 na vsiaka duma..........Taka praviat pari ot horata kato teb

[0007]

На кого да вярваме?

На арабите, кои от 50$ нагоре за барел, все един и същи рефрен повтарят, че спекулантите движели цените и че доставките били в необходимите количества, или на Газпром, които, видно от долната днешна статия, са на друго мнение.

Всеки, може да прочете и двете гледни точки по темата, и да си направи изводите.

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/200806...m-9c49c44.html

Gazprom predicts $250 oil in 2009

By Tom Bergin Reuters - Tuesday, June 10 02:43 pm

DEAUVILLE, France (Reuters) - Russia's Gazprom, the supplier of a quarter of Europe's natural gas, expects the price of crude oil to almost double within 18 months and to take gas prices higher with it.

"We think it will reach $250 a barrel in the foreseeable future," Chief Executive Alexei Miller told reporters at a presentation in France, adding high demand rather than speculation was the primary factor for high hydrocarbon prices.

A spokesman said the company, which is also one of Russia's largest crude producers, expected the price to hit the $250/barrel level sometime in 2009.

Gazprom exports gas to Europe at prices linked to oil products. Miller said the current gas price was $410 per 1,000 cubic metres and Alexander Medvedev, Miller's deputy, said prices were likely to rise to reflect the higher cost of crude.

Analysts said that using the $250/barrel forecast and the conversion factors cited by Medvedev at the presentation, one would arrive at a gas price of $1,500 per 1,000 cubic metres.
"It's crazy ... maybe they know something we don't," said one analyst, who bemoaned the lack of analysis to back up the forecast.

"Usually one give a lot of analysis to back up that kind of forecast," he said.

The comments came as the oil price sat at around $134 a barrel, a few dollars short of last week's record level.

State-controlled Gazprom plans to double oil production by 2020. This goal could be reached sooner through the acquisition of a stake in TNK-BP, Russia's third-largest oil producer, and industry sources said Gazprom was interested.

Medvedev said Gazprom will only consider investing in TNK-BP after its shareholders have settled a dispute over control of the company.

TNK-BP is half owned by oil major BP and half owned a group of Russian billionaires who have criticised management at the company.

DIVERSIFICATION IS USELESS

Miller criticised European efforts to reduce reliance on Russia, which analysts expect to provide a third of EU gas in the years ahead, and slammed attempts to limit Gazprom's ability to buy gas distribution assets in the bloc.

Miller said it was Gazprom's strategy to be vertically integrated with operations from the well-head to the consumer in Europe and other continents.

Some European politicians have expressed concern about Gazprom buying up downstream assets in the EU saying the Kremlin could use these assets to exert political influence in the future but Medvedev said the investments were commercial.

"Why should we invest money to create the possibility to shut off the gas supply?" he said at the presentation in the resort town of Deauville in northern France.

Miller said attempts to improve security of EU energy supplies by diversifying energy suppliers would be counterproductive and Medvedev added that Russia could also follow the principle of diversification, potentially steering supplies away from Europe.

"If you diversify suppliers, it will not solve the problem," Medvedev said.

Gazprom, already the world's largest gas producer with a stock market value of over $330 billion (169 billion pounds), expects to triple in size to become a $1 trillion company within seven to 10 years, Miller said.
It will be investing heavily to achieve this, with total investments estimated at $30 billion for 2008 and set to rise in the years after that, company officials said.

Earlier, Miller told Le Figaro newspaper that by 2020, Gazprom sees about half of its gas production coming from new fields in arctic seas, Yamal peninsula in Western Siberia and the Far East.

Miller said Gazprom did "not exclude" making major acquisitions in France but organic growth was the priority for now.

(Writing by Andrew Callus; Additional reporting by Astrid Wendlandt in Paris; Editing by Louise Ireland)

[0007]

Даже и Арабите, били против високите цени на петрола, да не повярва човек. Притесняват ме, такива изказвания, като долната статия.

Ще им се, да го продават по 50-75$ за барел, ама пустии спекуланти, им набутват по 136-137$ за барел, че и по 150-200$ за барел, искали да им го плащат. Засега, тези вербални интервенции, водят само до покачване на цената, за какво ли ги правят, въобще?

Да, им се чуди човек, по 200$ ли искат да си продават барелите, или по 100$?

http://www.reuters.com/article/China...LA462520080610

OPEC chief appeals for calm over oil

Tue Jun 10, 2008 8:20am EDT


LONDON (Reuters) - OPEC Secretary General Abdullah al-Badri on Tuesday appealed for calm, saying the record-high oil price was unbearable and did not reflect any shortage of supply in the market.

The comments are the latest to underscore the view of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries that it is pumping more than enough oil and high prices reflect factors beyond its control.

"I ask through you, through Reuters, really we need some calm. We are panicking too much," Badri told the Reuters Global Energy Summit.

"The situation is unbearable as far as we are concerned. I want to say, there is no shortage now and in the future."

Saudi Arabia, the world's top exporter and OPEC's most influential member, said on Monday it would soon call for a meeting to discuss what it called unjustified rises in prices.

Badri supported holding such a meeting, which he said might happen before the next scheduled OPEC gathering on September 9.

He also said he hoped that measures could be taken to curb speculation in the oil market, a factor OPEC believes is inflating prices to levels not justified by supply and demand.

"We are not happy with the current level of price for one reason. It has nothing to do with the fundamentals," he said.

"Speculators are playing a big role in high oil prices. Also there are other considerations, the value of the dollar and the geopolitical situation."

OPEC, which pumps about two in very five barrels of oil, was willing to raise production if needed, although there was no demand for extra barrels.

"Nobody is asking for oil at this time. We are checking with our member countries. There is no queue for oil," he said.

(Reporting by Alex Lawler)

[Minavast]

[quote="gino"]

Лошо прогнозите са за 250$ за барел .. е те такова чудо нема .. ако стигне 250 $

И при 250$ за барел, петролът, пак ще е по-евтин от т.н. "биогорива", които са само био, но не и горива.[

Gallon ethanol ima full production cost $2.50

Калоричността му е половината от тази на бензина,тъй че умножи цената по две

[pastir]

Да се качва, да е*а и петрола, ше си ползвам градския транспорт, и без това съм взел да се ошишквам - малко ходене не е излишно .
Сривът е неизбежен - тоя прогнози от 200-250 долара за барел са ги измислили за дребните риби - нали като надуят цената фондовете после трябва да продадът на някой, за да излязат от пазара. Тогава ще се намесят милиони дребни риби, които най-накрая ще си повярват ,че цената от 200-250 $ е постижима и като гръмне балона те "ще карат супата да истива", да не пасът трева по тия фондове с милярдите Я.

Петрол има - който не вярва да изгледа няколко филмчета в youtube за "Alberta's oil sands" - там шъ копаме петрол и след 150 години.
Разработят ли се и новите находища в Бразилия ше ни се молят да караме пак на бензин ама до тогава умните глави ще са измислили истинска алтернатива...

[niki5]

dokato pljampate samo, njakoi prvjat pari
bahti darvenite filosofi

[Repoman]

Хайде, пак сме на $137 за барел, явно че се опитаме да преминем и подобрим рекорда. Странното е че в момента долара също скача, което прави скока на петрола още по-голям.
Онази прогноза за $150 за 4 Юли май ще се окаже много точна и вярна.

Сега доларът се покачва +0.88%, същото прави и петролът +1.96%. При следващ спад на долара, барелът ще цепи над 150$.

Долу-горе това е сметката. Иначе, ако мине $150 следващата цел може и да не е близо, може да гледаме един ясен и стръмен тренд до $200. После слушай за commodities bubble и за разни обяснения ... в момента поне за нефта не изглежда да е така. Истината е че и ОПЕК вече няма резерви да увеличава добива, да се надяваме че поне може да го задържи на това ниво за поне 5-10г. още, че иначе съвсем лошо ще стане.

[0007]

Хайде, пак сме на $137 за барел, явно че се опитаме да преминем и подобрим рекорда. Странното е че в момента долара също скача, което прави скока на петрола още по-голям.
Онази прогноза за $150 за 4 Юли май ще се окаже много точна и вярна.

Сега доларът се покачва +0.88%, същото прави и петролът +1.96%. При следващ спад на долара, барелът ще цепи над 150$.

[0007]

[quote="gino"]

Лошо прогнозите са за 250$ за барел .. е те такова чудо нема .. ако стигне 250 $

И при 250$ за барел, петролът, пак ще е по-евтин от т.н. "биогорива", които са само био, но не и горива.[

Gallon ethanol ima full production cost $2.50

Колега, не ги гледай тези глупости, колко бил галон етанол - новият "Dotcom bubble" са биогоривата, практическата полза от тях, ще е почти никаква, разходите и проблемите, които ще създадат, може и да са съществени, поне ще ни научат, да изпозлваме по-добре обработваемите си земи. Бързо, ще се изпари тази мания по биогоривата, още малко да се покачат цените на биосуровините, които се използват в производството им, и сами ще се откажат, да ги произвеждат.

Между другото, това е и една от фундаменталните причини за покачването на цената на петрола. След като се започна, с произвеждането на тези т.н. "биогорива", които са само био, се видя, реалната стойност на петрола, като се съпостави с разходите за производство на "биогорива" и тяхната енергийна полза от употребата им, като резултат. Ами, те не могат да се сравняват, въобще.

Затова, говоря, че петролът е несравнимо по-евтин от "биогоривата", като от последните, според учените, дори няма смисъл.

Иначе, ако беше както казваш, щяхме да си караме колите и самолетите с етанол по 2.5$ за галон, и да си свирукаме.

Skoro v BG nyama da gi karate, nazad ste s materiala....Nablegnete na metana...Benzina v USA se smesva s ethanol ot moje bi 3 godini nasam, masovo poslednite 1 godina. A tova za energiinata polza e taka, oba4e ima edna golyama, ama mnogo golayama podrobnost. Za sa se pravi ethanol se izpolzva energiya ot natural gas, ne ot oil. V USA natural gas kolkoto iska6. Kakto kazah i predi se gubi energiya v procesa, oba4e tova e bez zna4enie, poneje s ethanol si kara6 kolata, ne s natural gas. Verno, cenata na carevicata se vdiga, no vinagi moje da se uveli4at dobivite s genno injenerstvo. Pak i da mu mislyat tezi koito nyamat carevica.

Ne zabravyai se tova e samo parviyt cycle. Vtoriyat etap e non-corn ethanol ima i coal to gas conversion. Ot tova gi estrah arabite i zatova se optivat da prehvarlyat vinata varhu spekulantite, za6toto ako oil se ustanovi za postoyanno na takiva niva, alternative projects stavat masovo profitable.

Моето мнение е, че тези биогорива са една лъжа, ще отшумят като Дотком бабъла. Ако, беше така, Щатите, да си се оправят сами с царевица и природен газ, за какво се блъскат да ходят в Ирак и Иран, толкова стотици милиарди долари да харчат? Защо, се отказват от Американската мечта Хамър?

[Repoman]

Хайде, пак сме на $137 за барел, явно че се опитаме да преминем и подобрим рекорда. Странното е че в момента долара също скача, което прави скока на петрола още по-голям.
Онази прогноза за $150 за 4 Юли май ще се окаже много точна и вярна.