NYSE&NASDAQ SYMBOLS

[New in the town]

VIX and the bottom

Болшое спосибо...

[imported_Rogue Trader]

VIX and the bottom

Това е правилния линк за определението на VIX:
http://www.cboe.com/common/pageviewe...20corner&sec=6

[imported_Rogue Trader]

VIX and the bottom

С две думи VIX показва настроението на пазара чрез put/call ratio, options volatility и обем изтъргувани опции. Нещо което е ключът към това какво ще направи пазара. Примерно нека ди си представим следната ситуация: Почти всеки на пазара е настроен песимистично и мисли, че цените на акциите ще се сринат още. Какво става в такава ситуация? Ами купуват се повече put опции, по-малко call опции, цените на пут опциите се повишават, цените на кол опциите падат и въобще целия обем изтъргувани опции се повишава. Това всичкото води до повишаване на стойността на VIX. ДОтук всичко е ОК. Как обаче това ще ти помогне да разбереш какво ще направи пазара от тук нататък? Ами много просто. Когато всички са настроени негативно и мислят, че цените на акциите ще се сринат - то какво е логично да направят? Логично е да продадат или да минат на къси позиции. И точно в този момент на определен етап се стига до положението когато на пазара вече няма кой да продава, защото едва ли не всеки който е искал да продава го е направил или е минал на къса позиция. Точно в този момент на пазара не му остава нищо друго освен да се повиши, защото има само купувачи и почти няма продавачи. Така се случи на 21-септември-2001 и в началото на април 2001. Сам може да проверите колко беше VIX тогава и колко се повиши след това пазара.

А иначе хубаво най-хубавото определение за VIX могат да ти дадат онези, които го правят, а именно CBOE:

http://ad.doubleclick.net/adi/cboe.d...4726562500000?

Успех на всички. И ползвайте повече VIX. Ще видите, че много помага! ))

[New in the town]

VIX and the bottom

Някой може ли да ми каже от къде мога да намеря добро описание на VIX и интерпретирането му. Thanks very much.

[imported_Rogue Trader]

VIX and the bottom

Днес и през следващите няколко дни ще стане нещо много интересно на Wall Street. Усещате ли го?

[imported_Rogue Trader]

VIX and the bottom

За онези, които са настроени скептично към VIX, тук предлагам един интересен коментар на David Nichols:

Some things never change

by David Nichols, Editor

Yesterday after the close I scanned the market wrap-ups to gauge how the mainstream media is presenting the current market. All former traces of hope are now abandoned. It"s unadulterated bearishness.

Here are some choice quotes, culled from Reuters:

"Everybody is really, really bearish ... There has been no good news out and the feeling is that we have hit the tip of the iceberg with these corporate accounting improprieties. It"s so terrible," said a stock index futures trader on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange who declined to be identified.

"The mood is very subdued here. It feels like you"ve been smacked five times on the head," said a stockbroker at a foreign bank in New York. "I have been here 10 years and I have not seen anything like this, I"m worried for my clients."

"We"re in new territory," said Robert Arancio, head of Nasdaq trading for Lehman Brothers. "We"re looking for something to turn the market around and there is nothing."

"The bottom fishers have been worn out," said John Maack, director of equities at Crabbe Huson. He said talks with brokers indicate that they are seeing mutual fund liquidations and margin calls. "People are not just taking money off the table on their own."

Our own emails also tell a story of bearishness run rampant. For the first time in a long, long time, yesterday we received a clutch of mildly to overtly hostile emails complaining in no uncertain terms how we could even conceivably, possibly be laboring under the notion that the markets are about to rally; and why the hell are we not loading up on puts.

I could rattle off a plethora of technical reasons why this market is deeply oversold, and showing all the signs of a classic bottom: a very high Arms Index, huge put activity in the options markets, climactic volume indicators, etc., etc.

But it"s even simpler, really, if we just stick to our trusty VIX. Just a cursory scan of market history shows you that the market always moves higher after the VIX spikes into the mid-30s.

Let me put it another way: If you enter a long position now, at some point over the next few weeks or months you will get a chance to sell at higher prices -- and it"s very likely that prices will be much higher.

It"s as close to a "sure thing" as you"re going to find, in a bull or a bear market. In fact, it"s exactly akin to shorting a bear market when the VIX is in the teens or low 20s -- it"s almost impossible to lose money in that scenario, if you keep your wits about you. It"s the same with the VIX in its current high condition, only now it"s time to go long.

Don"t believe me?

Let"s look back at how you would have done if you had bought into every sell-off over the last 2+ year bear market where the VIX spiked into the mid-30s, as in the current decline:



If you simply bought every spike into the mid-30s on the VIX, and sold when the VIX worked off into the mid-20s, you"d have made money. Every time. The trick is to not fall in love with your long positions, but instead realize that you are just playing the inevitable rebound, fueled by too much negativity. When the VIX is worked off, then "get out of Dodge." (By the way, back in the bull market, this tactic worked much better yet -- but that"s neither here nor there. This is definitely still a bear).

So if you"re now working yourself into a lather about the impending crash and the risks and the Worldcoms and the "who"s next?" and the blah, blah, blah -- then you"re just falling for the market"s oldest con game.

The time to be bearish is over, at least for the short term, and it"s time to start buying stocks. You don"t have to take a second mortgage on your house and go crazy here, but if you"ve been prudent during this bear market and are now looking to make some money, then you should be deploying a little in the market right now.

If the market goes down even further, that will be an absolute gift, and that will be the time to buy stocks more aggressively. In fact, we should actually be hoping for a big selloff from here, because that is some of the easiest money we"ll ever make. A VIX in the 40s or higher is a very safe signal to buy aggressively, with major upside the likely outcome. We can use the Rydex leveraged funds to get supercharged to the upside when this happens.



As I"ve mentioned before, the markets become easier at extremes. It just gets harder to overcome the psychological burdens of truly moving against a crowd. It"s so ingrained in us to go along with the opinion of the majority. Buying here definitely feels wrong. And that"s what makes it so right.

"But this time is different!" you want to scream. That"s what they always say. That"s what they were saying when the VIX hit the teens back in March, and there was a chorus proclaiming that the "VIX didn"t matter" anymore, and the markets could just keep going up and up. Where are those people now? They"re the same ones telling you the market can just keep going down and down. It"s funny how that works.

Sure the market can go down from here. Big deal! You"ll just make more money. The real story is that the market will zoom back up even through these current levels in the not-too-distant future. You know how it"s going to play out. It always happens the same way. So now is the time to keep your emotions in check, and to observe what is happening from a cool, rational perspective. You can calmly and gladly accept the opportunity presented to you by these tortured souls caught up in the now-fashionable doomsday scenario.

Another thing to consider -- and this may make you feel better from a fundamental standpoint -- is the so-far benign "early warning" period for the 2nd quarter. Disasters from Worldcom, Adelphia, and Vivendi have stolen the headlines, but not a lot of nightly blow-ups have been hitting the wires on the earnings front. Most companies have finally managed -- eight or ten quarters into the bear market, mind you -- to lower the bar far enough that they don"t have to keep lowering it.

Can you even think of any major warnings off the top of your head, besides Intel? Earnings season is likely to surprise to the upside. Or at least not be as bad as everyone thinks, and this should catch the new bearish majority betting the wrong way.

[Наивник]

NYSE&NASDAQ SYMBOLS

Ааааа, аз я карам само на "Правец" и тук-там Интел и AMD))

[неЗАВИСИМ]

NYSE&NASDAQ SYMBOLS

купувааам развалени телевизори, купувааам.
всякви боклуци купувааам.
NASDAQ100, S&P500 купувааам ...АКО 945 ИЗДЪРЖИ!!!

[neznaest]

NYSE&NASDAQ SYMBOLS

Sagitarius koi e tozi sait deto si se registriral, che nesto za poreden pat go spomenavash?

[Geko]

NYSE&NASDAQ SYMBOLS

Re:WCOME - kupuvaneto zapochna sled kato Rumsfeld se izkaza,che situatziata s co. nyama da zasegne contractite i s Pentagona.V momenta na Instinet e 0.12

[sagitarius_d]

NYSE&NASDAQ SYMBOLS

DA blagodaria Rogue Trader..Ei sega she go vida..A za bezplatnite si prav doniakade..Az naznaino otkade sum se registriral na edna website,i sega poluchavam razni prognozi,kato toia deto gi pishe poznava kato Vrachka.
Abe toq WCOM egati akciata...Koga go gledam 6c,koga stanal 10!BRe mnogo patriotichni teia amerikanci,golqmo neshto...tz tz..

[imported_Rogue Trader]

The elusive bottom

"History is a guide to navigation in perilous times. History is who we are and why we are the way we are."
- David C. McCullough

[imported_Rogue Trader]

NYSE&NASDAQ SYMBOLS

Sag, пробвай http://www.21stcenturyalert.com/
Това е платено, но нали знаеш, че тези които са безплатни се издържат от други неща - да не коментирам тук какви и в повечето случаи са или biased или грешат. Тези имат free-trial и главния им редактор David Nichols пише много свестни неща в "MORNING BRIEFING".

[sagitarius_d]

NYSE&NASDAQ SYMBOLS

Rogue Trader,май лятно рали ще има..Като чета какви обезсърчени са всички..99,99% са мечки…Владо,за VXN на теория се смята че за да има по-трайно дъно,индикатора трябва да е около 70-80..Ама има и други индикатори де..Ако още малко спадаме така до петък,/за жалост четвъртък е затворен пазара/,може и да стигнем някво дънце….Абе за да има някво 2+ седмично дъно на Насдак трябва поне 1 седмица broad selloff…Просто тая седмица всеки ден трябва да сме на --/минус/.Дъното е някъде там и повечето пазарни участници вече не вярват в него..
Пп Rogue Trader,кажи ако знаеш страница за Sentiment na pazara.Аз намерих едни 2,ама не ми се струват много достоверни..Айде и успех на всички BG traders-in BG or Abroad

[imported_Rogue Trader]

The elusive bottom

По принцип мразя да давам коментари за конкретни акции - но ви съветвам да погледнете JNPR. Има много сила в тази акция - в такъв ден си проличава ясно.