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Nikoga ne se prismivai na drugiq - ne znaesh koga shte sgreshish!
Ogledai se,oslushai se i ako ne idva vlak(razbirai $) - premini....
No alchniq glupak ne moje da bade izlekuvan!!!
Duhai sega da go zakarash na 1.30!
ami boi za jpy i za chf.Tova shte e tazi nosht i utre:
1.50h - Tenkan (boi po silnata jpy)
10h -Suisse Central Bank news conference (boi po silniq CHF)
Izvod: sell eur/usd
Ta utre rano sutrin,kato poraztarkate ochichki i si izpiete kafenzeto,gledaite da ne se oparite....
Коментар
Да
fx
In early 1985, when the dollar peaked and a several year period of dollar crisis ensued, the US
was still a net creditor nation with a current account deficit as a percent of GDP that was less
than its current level. The US is now the world"s largest net debtor nation, with a net debt equal to
more than 18% of GDP. If the current dollar exchange rate persists, the US will soon have a current
account deficit in excess of 6% of GDP. Then its net external indebtedness will be set to double in two
to three years to levels deemed worrisome even for a fast growing emerging economy
that can efficiently use external capital.
Increasingly, it appears that the US economy has become a candidate for crisis.
It certainly has an asset bubble: all measures of valuation (Tobin"s Q, market cap to GDP, P/E ratios)
are again trading near March 2000 type levels. Judging from the recent anaemic performance of the
dollar, it is becoming increasingly recognised that the US now has had a serious exchange rate
overvaluation as well, which is in the process of resolving itself to the downside.
The hope is that today’s controlled devaluation does not turn into a rout. The US trade account
deficit has continued to haemorrhage,
as the lagged impacts on trade from dollar strength of previous years begin to bite.
tedpl здравей
аз сутринта влязох на къси usd/yen (доколкото си спомням писах във форума за това) - от 108.17.
Настрани стоя засега във eur/usd, искам да видя как ще затвори днес и по всяка вероятност, ще търся удобен момент за купуване чак в понеделник...
Ще оставя късата позиция usd/yen за през нощта...
Има нужда и от малко почивка
Ситуацията никак не е ясна, макар че мечките го виждат като удобен момент за заемане на дългосрочни къси позиции, макар че общо взето ги разбирам, мисля че това продължава да е игра с огъня.
В тази ситуация бих купувал при всяко рали надолу и бих излизал след 20-40 пипса профит.
Selqni( i grajdani),tazi nosht shte stava slednoto:
1.50h - Tenkan izliza - BUY $/jpy i sell eur/usd
Koito shte - da si kupi i $/chf
I umnata - do parvi petli ( i do sutreshnoto doene na kravata) shte sme mnogo nadolu v eur/usd (moje i pod 1.2020 za eur/usd)
Коментар
Да
fx
Since the beginning of the Dollar Standard era in 1971, US debt has increased about twice as fast as GDP.
That is, for every new dollar of output...$2 of new debt were added. But as liabilities increase,
it takes more debt to move the economy forward, while still covering previous borrowings.
Last year, for example, debt increased 7 times faster than GDP.
"When the U.S. dollar historically begins to weaken, it stays weak for a very long time.
To be more specific, we turn to Everbank"s head trader, Chuck Butler.
"The first weak dollar trend of the period began in 1971 and ended in 1978, 7 years in duration.
During that period, the Swiss franc gained +186% versus the dollar. The Deutsche mark gained 53%
during the same period. "The next weak dollar trend began in 1985 and ended in 1996,
11 years in duration. During that time, the Swiss franc gained +138% versus the dollar.
The Deutsche mark gained 53%. "As we are still not even two years into the current dollar weakness
(the current downturn began in February 2002)...we have a rare opportunity to get in early into
what could be a very long trend. While you have the luxury of waiting a week or so to see if the
dollar manages a short rally - because it is almost certainly getting ahead of itself just now -
but even if you don"t feel like waiting, don"t be overly concerned - based on all the evidence,
the U.S. dollar has a long way to fall.
Коментар