Нов FOREX анализ
Deutsche Bank FX Analysis
data 07.05.2004
EUR USD (1.2060) The euro made another run at the 1.2190/00 target/
medium-term breakeven point yesterday, but was halted by what may have
been a combination of short- and medium-term selling. Later in the day, it
slid below 1.2095, the downside limit to our bullish view.
The importance of this second point was that we considered it to be the
lowest level where daytraders would take profits on short positions. This
must have been the case because, even ahead of this price, we noticed a
180-degree turnaround in the arguments put forward by market participants.
Gone were the euro-bearish comments of the previous day. Instead, traders
spoke about the US ‘losing the moral battle in Iraq’ and the ‘twin deficits’
(where did that come from?). Also the oil price finally made it into the list of
important fundamentals. Commentators have been gawping at the
runaway crude prices for days. But it was as if they did not quite know where
to fit it into their dollar analyses. Will it push the low-growth regions, i.e., the
eurozone, into recession? Will it increase the global demand for dollars?
Yesterday, they conveniently plumped for the line that, as the world’s
greatest oil consumer, the US must suffer and with it the dollar. But neither
profit-taking on shorts nor the apparent creation of new longs by short -term
players could halt the euro’s decline. This means that medium-term accounts
must be unloading euro longs in earnest. And daytraders must be stranded
with longs starting from around 1.2120. We therefore suggest this point as
the upside limit of any rebound and open a new target at 1.1885
immediately.
Deutsche Bank FX Analysis
data 07.05.2004
EUR USD (1.2060) The euro made another run at the 1.2190/00 target/
medium-term breakeven point yesterday, but was halted by what may have
been a combination of short- and medium-term selling. Later in the day, it
slid below 1.2095, the downside limit to our bullish view.
The importance of this second point was that we considered it to be the
lowest level where daytraders would take profits on short positions. This
must have been the case because, even ahead of this price, we noticed a
180-degree turnaround in the arguments put forward by market participants.
Gone were the euro-bearish comments of the previous day. Instead, traders
spoke about the US ‘losing the moral battle in Iraq’ and the ‘twin deficits’
(where did that come from?). Also the oil price finally made it into the list of
important fundamentals. Commentators have been gawping at the
runaway crude prices for days. But it was as if they did not quite know where
to fit it into their dollar analyses. Will it push the low-growth regions, i.e., the
eurozone, into recession? Will it increase the global demand for dollars?
Yesterday, they conveniently plumped for the line that, as the world’s
greatest oil consumer, the US must suffer and with it the dollar. But neither
profit-taking on shorts nor the apparent creation of new longs by short -term
players could halt the euro’s decline. This means that medium-term accounts
must be unloading euro longs in earnest. And daytraders must be stranded
with longs starting from around 1.2120. We therefore suggest this point as
the upside limit of any rebound and open a new target at 1.1885
immediately.
)) e malko shte polazi po nerwite no shte obra stopowe ot pone dwe -tri newa i shte obarnat poziciite i spiralata she se ponawiie
Коментар