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Dow Jones Newswires
(This article has been posted on The Source, the Wall Street Journal Online's site for European real-time analysis http://blogs.wsj.com/source)
Something very strange happened Thursday.
To be fair, quite a few strange things happened, thanks to Warren Buffett's bathtime inspiration. But the foreign exchange market was also right up there in the "what in God's name is going on?" stakes.
In particular, the dollar shot higher. One reason for this was the German stock market was, briefly, in freefall. Traders and investors swung rapidly into "run to the hills" mode. It makes sense for the euro to suffer in those circumstances. It kind of makes sense for the dollar to rise. After all, it is still widely considered a safe haven, or just about.
But here's the thing: As the buck advanced, other safe-haven currencies, notably the yen and the Swiss franc, fell.
This really doesn't follow the FX market script, which is: Fear goes up, yen goes up. Fear goes up, Swissie goes up.
This may not sound like a big deal, but it monkeys around with how investors prepare for big events, how they hedge against risks. If the usual correlations break down, the market becomes even more unpredictable.
"There have been quite a few strange moves in FX recently," said Ian Stannard, a currency analyst at Morgan Stanley in London. "There has been a breakdown between currencies and their traditional indicators."
Even as fear and loathing have been rife of late, and stock markets have tumbled, the dollar, as Mr. Stannard points out, has barely risen. Normally, you would expect that as investors get out of dollar-funded overseas bets, that would boost the buck. But not this time. Something weird is going on.
In part, this reflects that Japan and Switzerland have been busting a gut to hold their currencies down. They are not amused by this rush of safe-haven flows. No, sir.
So no one quite knows what else to do. Some have been pinching their nose, ignoring the grim economic data, and buying sterling. Some have headed into the Norwegian krone and Swedish krona. The tiny Danish krone, pegged to the euro, has even been on the up.
But broadly, when it comes to the world's biggest currencies--the euro, dollar, yen and sterling--investors seem to be at a loss to know what to do next. It's like choosing the best-looking horse in the glue factory. Blindfolded.
вчера нямаше риск аваршън точно както си и мислех
така 4е няма какво толкова да се 4удят
според мен имаше объркване в талуването на спекулата за
qe тоест не всички мислеха еднакво
bgg_red, не знам до колко залагаш в системата си на нивата, които постваш, но твоето прословуто 1.4444 от средата на Август си го минава на лягане и на ставане курсът. Бая лев е можело да се изкара. А ти викаш нямало сигнал
Не е заяждане, просто ми е интересно!
Сега ще те "светна" какво става
Курсо е запецнал тука
щото МИТИЧНОТО
1.44444444444444444
не го пуска да иде НАНИКЪДЕ !!!!
--е за НАДЕНИЦАТА ви отепах!!!
http://farm6.static.flickr.com/5248/5222600580_2e7c1c2264_b.jpg
Късо не съм пуснал щото нямам сигнал още.
А сигнала ще е скорощен ,,,,,,,,,,,
bgg_red, не знам до колко залагаш в системата си на нивата, които постваш, но твоето прословуто 1.4444 от средата на Август си го минава на лягане и на ставане курсът. Бая лев е можело да се изкара. А ти викаш нямало сигнал
....
"There have been quite a few strange moves in FX recently," said Ian Stannard, a currency analyst at Morgan Stanley in London. "There has been a breakdown between currencies and their traditional indicators." ....
Прав е човека ! Тоя Йън Станнард го знам от времето когато работеше в BNP-Paribas -London , заедно с Ханс Гюнтер Редекер който пък беше шеф на FX-анализаторския отдел - но сега не се сещам къде е .
Доказателство за доверие дава първо оня, който го търси!
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